165438+1On October 24th, the first financial reporter visited some vegetable markets and found that the retail prices of pork from different varieties and places of origin were slightly different. At present, the retail price of sandwich meat is in 38 yuan -45 yuan/kg, pork belly in 42 yuan -50 yuan/kg, and small ribs in 40 yuan -53 yuan/kg. The price of black pigs is generally higher than that of white pigs. The first financial reporter bought half a catty of black pig sandwich meat, 27.9 yuan, equivalent to nearly 60 yuan a catty.
The owner of a pork shop in Chengshan Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, told the First Financial Reporter: "The retail price of pork has been declining slowly for more than a month, but in fact, the business we sell to family consumers has not been greatly affected, mainly because the distributors who wholesale pork to restaurants are greatly affected. Because the epidemic is unstable, in fact, more people will be willing to buy pork and go home to cook. " The above-mentioned boss predicted that the retail price of pork should be relatively stable within this year, because many consumers will reserve a certain amount of pork to prepare for the Chinese New Year as the Gregorian calendar is about to enter 65438+February.
As for the reasons for the recent drop in pork slaughter price, Feng Yonghui, an analyst of China Pig Warning Network, analyzed with the First Financial Reporter that the terminal pork consumption was less than expected, and it was in the peak season theoretically, but it was not prosperous in the peak season. "Because all places are affected by the epidemic now, the recovery of the catering industry is very unsatisfactory. The control of the epidemic has a greater impact on the circulation and transportation of pigs, so pork consumption is relatively low now."
In addition, Feng Yonghui believes that some farmers fattened for the second time in September, which led to the pressure of 10, and now it is panic selling, and the pig price has plummeted continuously. Regarding the second fattening of farmers around the National Day, Feng Yonghui said that some pigs were about to be slaughtered when they weighed more than 200 kilograms, and as a result, they were fattened twice by some farmers and raised to more than 300 kilograms. This kind of "holding down the bar" behavior is because farmers are optimistic about the pig price behind and want to save it for the peak consumption season to sell a good price, and collective "holding down the bar" may lead to excessive rise in pig prices in the short term and form a price bubble.
Sure enough, the price bubble has burst this month. 165438+1On October 22nd, the average price of pork sold nationwide dropped by about 5 yuan compared with a month ago.
In the first half of this year, Mu Yuan (0027 14. SZ), New Hope (000876. SZ) and Zhengbang Technology (002 157. SZ) The loss is about1500 million yuan. Low pig price is a problem faced by all pig enterprises in the first half of the year. In addition, due to factors such as rising food prices and the impact of winter epidemics, the cost of raising pigs has increased compared with last year.
Turning losses into profits in the third quarter is the turning point of the whole industry, so are the major pig enterprises expected to make profits in the fourth quarter and even the whole year?
Feng Yonghui thinks that's for sure. "Because the average slaughter price is above the cost line now, it is impossible to lose money. It is to earn more and earn less, because the cost of pig price is about 8.5 to 9 yuan. " Feng Yonghui believes that it is very important to maintain the production cost of raising pigs, because the price of soybean meal is at a historical high and the price of corn is close to a historical high, so the cost of raising pigs is at a historical high.
However, when the semi-annual report was released, pig enterprises also had good expectations for the performance in the second half of the year. New Hope said in the semi-annual report that with the recovery of the follow-up market, the company is expected to gradually achieve better growth and performance through further improvement of efficiency, cost and output. In addition, the increase of pig price in June 5438+ 10 promoted the profits of pig enterprises to some extent.
For the forecast of next year's market, Wen's shares said in the record of investor relations activities that overall, the average price of pigs next year is better than this year. With the continuous reduction of the company's production costs, it is expected that there will be good profits next year.