In the past two years, automobile sales in China have plummeted. In 2118, the sales volume was 28.18 million vehicles, down 2.8% year-on-year; In 2119, the sales volume was 25.76 million vehicles, down 8.2% year-on-year. Originally, the industry predicted that it would stop falling and stabilize in 2121, and the epidemic "black swan" broke out again. The sales volume in January and February was only 2.238 million, down 42% year-on-year.

Fortunately, the China government has achieved remarkable results in fighting the epidemic, domestic factories have gradually resumed work, and automobile consumption suppressed by the epidemic has begun to be released, and automobile consumption has begun to recover. However, due to the increasingly serious epidemic situation abroad, foreign automobile production and consumption are in crisis. On the contrary, China, the earliest outbreak, has become the best market.

At present, it is impossible for the world epidemic to end in a short time, and China, as the world's largest automobile market, has naturally become the focus of competition among major automobile companies. I believe that this year, the giants will invest more resources in China, the already fierce knockout will be further upgraded, and the China Automobile Industry Bureau will be reshaped.

▍ Pay cuts, layoffs and shutdowns

The sharp decline in car sales has had a huge impact on many enterprises, so pay cuts or disguised salary cuts have become an inevitable choice. At present, most domestic automobile companies have already started to take action. For example, all the enterprises under SAIC, whether they are independent brands or joint venture brands, have reduced their salaries to varying degrees. We must know that the performance of SAIC is still good in China. If the business situation is not good, such as those new forces that have just started to build cars, the difficulty is even more imaginable.

actually, even without the epidemic, the automobile industry has been depressed in the past two years. Not only in China, but also in major auto markets such as the United States, Germany, India and Japan. As early as 2119, the wave of layoffs in foreign auto industry began. According to public information, GM laid off 4,111 people, Mercedes-Benz laid off 1,111 people, Ford laid off 7,111 people, and Honda, Nissan, Tesla and Jaguar Land Rover all laid off 3-5,111 people. In contrast, it is not bad that mainstream car companies in China began to reduce their salaries after being hit by the epidemic, and there was no large-scale layoffs.

In addition, most foreign automobile enterprises are still in the state of suspension. According to statistics, by the end of March, there were more than 111 automobile factories in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea. Take Honda as an example, at least 18 of the vehicle factories, including seven bases in North America, have stopped working, accounting for about half of the world. The demand side is seriously injured, and the production side can't be started in a short time. The whole industry is equivalent to pressing the pause button, and the result can be imagined.

▍ China market potential

At present, China market has high hopes. First, in February, when the epidemic was the worst, it also maintained a certain sales volume through online car purchase and other means, but returning to normal in March can solve the urgent need and ensure the survival of enterprises. In addition, the automobile industry chain is long, which belongs to three latitude-intensive industries of capital, technology and labor, and it is a pillar in any country, so Europe, America, Japan and South Korea are trying to save the market, and China is no exception.

in fact, in the past two years, the state has been "rescuing the market", but it is basically guided by the government. It has not adopted the strong stimulus of "halving the purchase tax", which was particularly effective in the past, but supported it by going to the countryside, piloting pickup trucks into the city, canceling the restrictions on the movement of used cars, and encouraging the export of used cars, but the effect is not obvious. Now, there is still no strong stimulus policy at the national level. At present, the most hard-core policy that has been announced may be "the subsidy for new energy vehicles and the exemption from purchase tax will be extended for two years", and what everyone wants most is to reduce taxes on fuel vehicles and cancel the purchase restriction in big cities.

Of course, the rescue of the market at the local government level is more vigorous, and basically it is directly to the point. At present, Foshan, Guangzhou and Zhuhai in Guangdong Province, Xiangtan, Zhuzhou and Changsha in Hunan Province, Hangzhou and Ningbo in Zhejiang Province, Nanchang in Jiangxi Province and Changchun in Jilin Province have all issued strong policies to rescue the market. For example, Guangzhou has increased 1 million indicators, Hangzhou has increased 21,111 indicators, and there are direct cash subsidies, with amounts ranging from several thousand yuan. For example, individuals in Changchun can make up a maximum of 3,111 yuan for buying a car, and collective purchases can make up a maximum of 6,111 yuan for each car.

I believe that this strong stimulus policy of local government will greatly support automobile consumption. Although the national tax reduction is stronger, considering that the policy needs flexibility, we will not let the king explode for the time being, so we don't need to expect too much. Relatively speaking, the biggest advantage is the field of new energy vehicles. The existing subsidy policy will remain unchanged for two years, which is a major support for the confidence of enterprises and consumers. In the second half of 2119, the sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply, which was caused by the sharp reduction of the new subsidy policy on June 26.

▍ Who is the final winner

In the pattern of the world automobile market, the automobile sales in the United States have been around 17 million in recent years, showing a relatively stable performance. China has dropped from more than 28 million vehicles in its peak period to 25-26 million vehicles, but even if there is a significant decline this year, it still far exceeds the normal level of the United States. Moreover, China's automobile consumption is diversified and has not formed an absolute monopoly.

Of course, China's automobile market has also formed a head effect, and the era when all cars can be sold is fading away. At present, consumers' friendliness to major brands is only relative to that of foreign countries. As we all know, Volkswagen has obvious advantages in China. In 2119, Volkswagen sold 11.97 million worldwide, once again beating Toyota to win the championship. The China market reached 4,233,611 vehicles, accounting for about 41%, and both the North and South Volkswagen broke 2 million vehicles. The importance of China to the public is self-evident, so more resources are invested in China.

in p>2121, Volkswagen's new energy will be exerted in China. On the one hand, the ID series in the field of new energy will be fully launched, and on the other hand, the new energy versions of fuel vehicles, such as Golf GTE, Exploration GTE and the mixed versions of main models. In terms of fuel vehicles, FAW-Volkswagen will launch Golf 8 this year, and SAIC-Volkswagen will launch Viloran, a high-end MPV model. In addition, there are Volkswagen CC Hunting Edition, Coupe SUV, and SMV, a medium and large SUV model. Concept and other sub-models The huge lineup of new products will undoubtedly further consolidate its advantages.

Volkswagen's biggest challenge comes from Japanese cars, and Toyota, Honda and Nissan are playing around Volkswagen. In 2119, the performance of Japanese cars in China was shocking. Among them, Toyota sold 1.62 million cars, Honda sold 1.55 million cars and Nissan sold 1.54 million cars, and the total sales volume has surpassed Volkswagen.

this year, Japanese cars are also pushing new cars. For Toyota, GAC Toyota will launch Willanda and C-HR? EV, modified Highlander, FAW Toyota has new Corolla, Yize EV, new Vios, RAV4 Rongfang PHEV, and Lexus has LM and UX311e. Honda, Guangqi Honda's new car has a fourth-generation Fit and a new Lingpai Rui? Hybrid, mid-term change crown road, Dongfeng Honda has Civic hatchback, modified CR-V insertion, modified UR-V and domain hybrid. In terms of Nissan, there are four models: New Hacker, New Qijun, New Leaf and New Sunshine. Toyota, in particular, has a bright future in cooperation with BYD in new energy.

With the development of German and Japanese, it is impossible for China's automobile market to be drizzly again. While Volkswagen and Japanese are fighting each other, American, Korean and legal systems, which are going downhill in the past two years, are under greater pressure, and the story of Fiat and Suzuki may repeat itself at any time. Independent brands are facing the test of life and death. At present, the market share has already fallen below the 41% red line. If there are only three or five brands left in the end, as is widely expected in the industry, it will mean that most brands will disappear and a large number of enterprises will close down. Therefore, for the automobile industry in China, this epidemic will definitely reshape the industrial structure. Who will be the final winner?

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.