Unconsciously, more than half of March has passed, and farmers are suffering more when everyone is lamenting the sudden recurrence of recent epidemics in many places.

At present, due to the sharp rise of international food prices and the speculation of domestic traders, food prices keep rising, and feed enterprises have to raise feed prices after the rise of raw materials. The feed prices have risen for three or four rounds before the first quarter. At the same time, the prices of pigs, chickens, cattle and sheep keep falling, causing serious losses for farmers.

On March 9th, the price of pigs collapsed, the price of chickens could not rise, and cattle and sheep began to lose money. What happened to the aquaculture industry?

First, the pig price collapses

The pig price system shows that the pig price was previously kept at a low price by pig farmers, and it stabilized sideways for some time under the influence of factors such as centralized stocking by families and traders during the epidemic, as well as the storage and storage of reserve meat, but it did not bear the huge pressure of overcapacity in the end. With the end of the centralized stocking tide and the suspension of the storage and storage of reserve meat, the pig price fell again, and it fell below the heart of pig farmers like "6 yuan".

There are several main reasons for the recent collapse of pig prices: 1. The temperature has increased, and the enthusiasm of pig farmers in the past has increased; 2, feed prices continue to rise, pig farmers look down on the market, even if the price increase is still a loss, selling pigs as soon as possible is the best policy; 3, frozen pork storage temporarily come to an end; 4. The epidemic situation is serious, factories are shut down, enterprises are working at home, and catering consumption has dropped sharply.

5. The split warehousing of slaughter enterprises was basically completed, and the demand for pork declined again.

As for the subsequent pig price, some people think that with the decline of production capacity in the second half of the year, the pig price will rise again, and even hopefully return to the cost price in 8 yuan.

some people think that the arrival of the upward cycle of the pig cycle will have to wait until the first half of 2123.

Some people are even more pessimistic. They think that although some pig farms have begun to eliminate sows, the tide of centralized elimination has not appeared. The pig farms have only reduced the stock of sows, and many pig farms are replenishing reserve sows. What's more, the production capacity of group pig farms, which account for a large proportion of the whole country, has been at a high level, and the real recovery of pig prices may have to wait until the second half of 2123 or even 2124.

Second, the price of chicken is hard to rise

Pig farmers are sad, but chicken farmers are also sad. The chicken price system shows that the current social purchase price of wool chickens in Shandong is generally 3.8-3.92 yuan.

The purchase price of the chicken before the shed in Heiliaoji area is generally 3.9-4.15 yuan.

There is a big difference in the social purchase price of wool chickens in Henan and Shaanxi, ranging from the lowest in 3.6 yuan to the highest of 4.45 yuan.

the social purchase price of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is 3.82-4 yuan.

At present, the price of broilers is under the cost of farmers, just like the price of pigs. Although farmers are reluctant to sell and have a strong desire to increase in the face of poor profitability, it is difficult for chicken prices to increase under the dual pressure of slaughter enterprises and consumers.

Slaughtering enterprises: It is understood that at present, the slaughter cost of slaughter enterprises is basically 3.87-3.97 yuan, and the slaughter profit is acceptable.

however, due to the poor delivery of goods at the terminal, some enterprises have the operation of stopping work.

Some slaughter enterprises are also affected by epidemic control, which affects the supply of chicken sources.

terminal consumption: the epidemic situation has affected the normal business of fast food industries such as KFC and McDonald's, which have a large demand for broilers, and also affected the normal sales of divided chickens in supermarkets.

3. Cattle also began to lose money

Cattle raising has always been regarded as the most stable industry in the aquaculture industry, not only because there are fewer diseases, low mortality and low risk, but also because when the price of cattle is high, it will earn more, and when it is low, it will earn less, and there will be few losses. On March 9, the overall price of cattle in various places remained at 17-18.7 yuan. With the decline of cattle prices and the increase of feed prices,

There are several main reasons for the loss of cattle raising:

1. The price of beef is relatively high, and the consumption has dropped sharply after being hit by the recent price drop of pork and chicken;

2. In the past few years, the profit of raising cattle was high and the risk of raising pigs was high, and the domestic beef cattle breeding volume increased greatly;

3. After the price of corn, soybean meal and other feeds rises, the cost of raising cattle increases greatly.

not only raising cattle, but also the loss of raising sheep at present is not low. According to the quotations of farmers who raise sheep in various places, the price of Hebei is 13.5-14.5 yuan, that of Henan sheep is 16-17 yuan, that of Shandong small-tailed Han sheep skewers is 13.8 yuan, that of Xinmin sheep is 14.4 yuan, that of fattening sheep in Shanxi is 13.5 yuan, and that of meat sheep weighing about 111 kg in Jilin is 17-18 yuan.

Conclusion: At present, the whole aquaculture industry is in a state of loss and reshuffle. The market of domestic aquaculture industry has always been based on the pig market. When the pig price goes up, it will go up as a whole, while the pig price will go down as a whole. From the trend of food price and pig price, the supply of pigs will be at a high level at present and even in the next six months, so it is difficult for the pig price to rebound and rise, so the whole aquaculture industry should be prepared to fight a "protracted war".