Factor 1: consumption of soybean oil
1, domestic demand situation
China is a big consumer of soybean oil. In recent years, domestic soybean oil consumption has increased rapidly, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%.
2. The catering industry is prosperous.
At present, the output and consumption of vegetable oil in China are among the highest in the world. In recent years, with the improvement of living standards of urban residents, more and more people eat out, and the prosperity of catering industry has a very obvious impact on the demand for soybean oil.
Factor 2: the prices of related commodities and substitute commodities.
1, soybean price
The price of soybean directly affects the production cost of soybean oil. In recent years, many large domestic crushing enterprises have chosen imported soybeans as processing raw materials, which makes the crushing capacity of imported soybeans far exceed that of domestic soybeans. Therefore, the price of soybean oil is increasingly affected by the price of imported soybeans.
2. The price relationship between soybean oil and soybean meal
Soybean oil is the downstream product of soybean, and about 0. 18 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal can be squeezed out per ton of soybean. The prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related.
3. The price of soybean oil substitutes
In addition to the high correlation between soybean oil price and soybean meal price, soybean oil substitutes such as rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut oil and cottonseed oil also have a certain impact on soybean oil price. If the price of soybean oil is too high, refineries or oil-using enterprises often replace it with other vegetable oils, resulting in a decrease in the demand for soybean oil and a decrease in the price of soybean oil.
Three. Impact of agricultural, trade and food policies
1, agricultural policy
National agricultural policies often affect farmers' choice of planting varieties. For example, in recent years, the state has guided farmers to increase soybean planting area by adjusting relevant industrial policies, thus directly increasing domestic soybean production.
2. Import and export trade policy
Over the years, the change of national import and export trade policy has a great influence on the total import and export of soybean oil in China.
3. Food policy
In recent years, with the occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease, considering the impact of genetically modified foods on human health, more and more countries have implemented new food policies. These new grain policies have affected the consumption demand of soybean oil through the influence on food and catering industry.