First, the risk of the model.
Judging from the development of agricultural e-commerce platform in recent years, whether there is a clear and unique business model is the key to the operation and development of e-commerce platform. Because the agricultural e-commerce platform will eventually become centralized, different models will form several head platforms, and these platforms have the largest market share.
Second, the risks of platform development and operation and maintenance.
Most start-up e-commerce companies do not have a complete technology development team, and generally choose outsourcing technology companies to cooperate. There are two risks here, one is the development and performance of the first version; The other is whether the subsequent iterative optimization can be completed in time.
Communication cost is a problem that must be considered, because of the difference of professional background, it often takes a long time and many rounds of communication.
Third, operational risk.
At present, most of the staff engaged in agricultural e-commerce in China are transforming from consumer e-commerce to agricultural e-commerce. At present, the most prominent problem is that those who understand agriculture do not understand e-commerce, and those who understand e-commerce do not understand agriculture. Few people know both. It is very dangerous to simply copy the experience of consumer e-commerce to agricultural e-commerce. Agriculture has its own laws and characteristics, so the composition of the work team is very important.
Of course, there are other potential risks such as platform security risks, so I won't go into details. These three points are the biggest risks.
Agricultural e-commerce organically combines the three links of agricultural production through network technology, which is helpful to solve the information asymmetry problem in the process of agricultural production and sales, improve the response ability of agricultural production to the market, optimize the allocation of agricultural resources, and enhance China's agricultural brand image and overall competitive strength. China's agricultural e-commerce started late, and there are many problems and risks in the development process. This paper reviews the development process of agricultural e-commerce in China, analyzes the risks faced by the development of agricultural e-commerce in China, and discusses its reasons. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures are given to provide useful reference for the development of agricultural e-commerce in China.
"internet plus" is a new form of economic development evolved from the Internet, which represents a new advanced production relationship and provides a broad network platform for reform, innovation and development. In recent years, "internet plus" has changed and influenced many traditional industries, and Internet+agriculture has also become the general trend of agricultural development in China. China is a big agricultural country and a typical representative of traditional agriculture. Now it is in the process of transforming from "traditional agriculture" to "modern agriculture", facing the problems of low agricultural productivity, backward agricultural product processing industry, many agricultural product sales links and high transaction costs. The concept of "internet plus" has injected new impetus into the rural market in China and provided an opportunity for the development of agricultural e-commerce in China.
1 Advantages of agricultural e-commerce
Agricultural e-commerce is an economic operation mode of agricultural business activities by using computer technology, network technology and communication technology, including agricultural information production, online sales of agricultural products and logistics distribution, and electronic payment of funds [1]. Agricultural e-commerce organically combines the front, middle and back links of agricultural production through network technology, which is helpful to solve the information asymmetry problem in the process of agricultural production and sales, improve the response ability of agricultural production to the market, optimize the allocation of agricultural resources, and enhance China's agricultural brand image and overall competitive strength. Specifically, agricultural e-commerce has many advantages.
First, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce will help accelerate the transformation of China's agricultural production mode. Thousands of years of small-scale peasant economy have caused backward agricultural production mode, backward agricultural infrastructure construction and generally low level of agricultural mechanization and modernization. Therefore, changing the mode of agricultural production in China is the key to improve the overall economic quality of agriculture and rural areas in China. Vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce will help promote the realization of agricultural industrialization, informationization and modernization in China and accelerate the transformation of agricultural production mode in China.
Second, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce is conducive to the dissemination and enjoyment of agricultural information. The rapid circulation of information can effectively eliminate the uncertain factors in production activities. China's agricultural production is mainly small-scale production with family as the unit, and there is a lack of information communication between farmers and between farmers and the market. Farmers arrange production entirely by personal experience, which often leads to information asymmetry in agricultural products market and imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products. Developing agricultural e-commerce, building an agricultural e-commerce information platform, strengthening the construction of agricultural information infrastructure and speeding up the circulation of agricultural information can effectively solve these problems and close the relationship between farmers and the market.
Third, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce is conducive to broadening the sales channels of agricultural products and reducing circulation costs. On the one hand, because the production of agricultural products is restricted and restricted by natural conditions, the output is extremely unstable; On the other hand, agricultural products are not easy to preserve, easy to rot and deteriorate, and the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies. At present, there are many problems in the sales of agricultural products in China, such as narrow channels, many links, high transaction costs and great loss of agricultural products. Therefore, it is particularly urgent to vigorously develop agricultural e-commerce, build an online trading platform, broaden the sales channels of agricultural products and reduce transaction links and transaction costs.
Fourth, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce is conducive to promoting the process of agricultural industrialization in China. Agricultural industrialization is market-oriented, centered on economic benefits, based on farmers, linked by leading enterprises or farmers' independent decision-making cooperatives and other intermediate organizations, focusing on leading industries and products, optimizing the combination of various production factors, implementing regional layout, specialized production, large-scale construction, serial processing, socialized service and enterprise management, and connecting the three links of agricultural production process into an organic industrial system through market mechanism. Agricultural industrialization is an effective way to promote the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture as a whole and accelerate agricultural modernization. Vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce will contribute to the adjustment of China's agricultural production structure, promote the upgrading of China's agricultural industry, promote the development of agricultural specialization, and ultimately promote the development of China's agricultural industrialization.
Under the background of internet plus, the promotion and development of agricultural e-commerce is undoubtedly of great significance for changing the backward and low-end situation of traditional agriculture in China, but there are also many risks. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk factors of agricultural e-commerce, simulate the risk of agricultural e-commerce development in China through system dynamics model, and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the risk.
2 China agricultural e-commerce development process
The earliest development of agricultural e-commerce in China can be traced back to 1994, when China Agricultural Science and Technology Information Network was opened. Since then, various agricultural information network platforms have emerged one after another, and China's agricultural e-commerce industry has begun to develop. Since the late last century, China's agricultural e-commerce has roughly experienced the following four stages of development.
2. 1 embryonic stage of agricultural e-commerce development
1995 to 2005 is the embryonic stage of the development of agricultural e-commerce in China. During this period, the state officially launched the "Golden Agriculture Project", aiming at accelerating and promoting the informationization of agriculture and rural areas, and establishing an agricultural comprehensive management and service information system. At the same time, Ji Cheng Spot Network (the predecessor of China Grain Network) was established in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, marking the beginning of rural e-commerce in China. At present, the development mode of agricultural e-commerce in China only stays in the GtoC mode, that is, the government entrusts the e-commerce platform to purchase and sell national policy agricultural products through bidding transactions.
2.2 Growth period of agricultural e-commerce development
From 2006 to 2008, the development of agricultural e-commerce in China entered a short growth period. During this period, fresh e-commerce enterprises appeared in China, mainly traditional retailers. At the same time, in some rural areas along the southeast coast of China, some farmers began to open online stores on Taobao, becoming full-time online merchants, realizing income generation and forming a demonstration effect, driving the surrounding people to start businesses online, and all kinds of e-commerce have mushroomed.
2.3 Adjustment period of agricultural e-commerce development
The period from 2009 to 20 12 is the adjustment period for the development of agricultural e-commerce in China. First, due to the limited capacity of the agricultural e-commerce market in the early stage of development, the influx of a large number of e-commerce companies led to rapid market saturation. Second, because the early users of domestic agricultural e-commerce were mostly traditional retailers, they lacked professional e-commerce talents, professional management teams and capital. Faced with the high cost and high pressure competition in the agricultural e-commerce industry, these earliest enterprises involved in agricultural e-commerce almost failed. Third, there is a lack of model innovation and service innovation, and it is just blind imitation and replication. In addition, due to frequent domestic food safety incidents during this period, consumers pay more attention to food safety and quality. The dual pressure from industry development and changes in consumer demand eventually led to the closure of many e-commerce enterprises, and China agricultural e-commerce entered the adjustment period of resource integration and survival of the fittest.
2.4 the maturity of agricultural e-commerce development
Since 20 12, although the integration of resources is still in progress, agricultural e-commerce in China has entered a period of gradual maturity and stable development. During this period, although bankruptcy, transfer and elimination still exist, the remaining enterprises have their own advantages in industry resources. For example, SF Express was officially launched, Tuotuo Industrial Society rose rapidly, and the 1 store acquired by Wal-Mart launched its own fresh food category. Initially, Life.com's "Chu Orange" and "Millennium Litchi" caused heated discussion in society. Compared with the previous mutual bidding in the agricultural e-commerce industry, the new round of competition is more reflected in the country of origin, marketing means, logistics distribution speed, service and so on.
2.5 boom period of agricultural e-commerce development
In 20 15, with the concept of "internet plus" and the integration of "internet plus" and agriculture, agricultural e-commerce in China entered a period of rapid development and prosperity. In order to further stimulate the market potential of rural e-commerce, the state has successively issued a series of policies to promote the development of agricultural e-commerce, as shown in table 1. The introduction of these policies has provided strong policy support for improving the rural modern market system, promoting the modernization of rural circulation, improving the efficiency of rural circulation and releasing the rural consumption potential.
Such a good policy environment has also created a milestone in the development of agricultural e-commerce in China. Since 20 15, county e-commerce in China has been fully rolled out, and agricultural e-commerce has begun to fully adopt the method of "promoting the whole county", which has greatly accelerated the coverage speed of agricultural e-commerce. The first thing to bear the brunt is the full implementation of Alibaba's "Thousand Counties and Thousand Villages" plan. JD.COM followed closely, vigorously implemented the rural e-commerce strategy, vigorously promoted the basic network construction of rural e-commerce, and laid out the rural e-commerce service network covering the whole country. Suning launched the "Double Hundred Plan" to help the poor by e-commerce, and will build 100 stores in Suning.cn100 poverty-stricken counties suitable for developing rural e-commerce, including direct stores and service stations, and correspondingly launch Suning.cn100 local specialty pavilions to help the poor areas help the poor accurately. China Post is also accelerating the layout of rural e-commerce and building new village-level service points in Shaanxi, Shandong and Henan. In addition, China Telecom also began to covet rural e-commerce, and started the pilot project of building village-level e-commerce service points in Qinghai, and cut into the rural e-commerce market from charging services. Alibaba's "Thousand Counties and Thousands of Villages" plan, JD.COM Mall's "Jingdong Gang" service shop, Suning Shang Yun's Suning.cn service station model, China Post and China Telecom's spread to the rural market all indicate that China's agricultural e-commerce is gradually moving towards open social management [2]. Agricultural e-commerce has brought more convenience and more employment opportunities to farmers, not only promoted the development of the overall rural economy, but also changed the backward appearance of traditional agriculture in China and promoted the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.
Table 1: Policy documents related to the development of agricultural e-commerce
3 China agricultural e-commerce development risks and causes analysis
With the prevalence of Internet economy and the rapid development of science and technology, agricultural e-commerce, as an important means of strategic adjustment and value creation of China's agriculture-related enterprises, is an inevitable trend of China's agricultural industrialization and modernization, and has become an important way for China's agricultural industry to gain competitive advantages. However, agricultural e-commerce not only brings competitive advantages to enterprises, but also brings certain risks to the production, sales and agricultural market of agricultural products in China. The risk of agricultural e-commerce refers to the possibility that the subject of agricultural e-commerce will suffer losses due to the uncertainty and complexity in the development of agricultural e-commerce. The main body of agricultural e-commerce includes all agricultural enterprises, farmers and end customers who participate in agricultural e-commerce. Agricultural e-commerce risks mainly include the following categories.
3. 1 market risk
The market risk of agricultural e-commerce refers to the risk that the main body of agricultural e-commerce will suffer economic losses due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the agricultural product market, the fluctuation of agricultural product prices, or the information asymmetry, market prospect forecast deviation and other factors. The market risk of agricultural e-commerce is mainly manifested in the deviation of agricultural product market forecast and the change of supply and demand information, which leads to the fluctuation of agricultural product market price and unsalable agricultural products. There are two main reasons for the market risk of agricultural e-commerce:
First, the weakness of the agricultural industry itself is the root cause of the market risk of agricultural e-commerce. The weakness of agricultural industry is reflected in: strong seasonality of agricultural production, long production cycle and lagging market regulation, which lead to great changes in agricultural product prices; Most agricultural products belong to fresh agricultural products, which are perishable and difficult to preserve for a long time, and require higher processing technology and conditions. Once unsalable, agricultural producers will face huge losses; Despite the continuous progress of agricultural science and technology, agricultural production is still highly dependent on natural conditions, and the losses caused by natural disasters are beyond human control.
Second, the high asymmetry of agricultural product market information is the direct cause of agricultural e-commerce market risk. The high asymmetry of agricultural product market information mainly comes from two reasons. On the one hand, the overall cultural quality of farmers in China is generally low, so it is difficult to find and accurately interpret the market demand in the market, and their ability to judge the market is weak. Farmers only decide production by experience, lacking effective information, and it is difficult to adjust the production structure in time according to the changes of market demand, which makes the production of farmers in China have great blindness. On the other hand, although there are about 1 10,000 agricultural information websites in China, there are many problems such as similar information, low accuracy and poor timeliness, especially the lack of predictive and guiding information on agricultural products market. Therefore, the high uncertainty of agricultural product market information in China has brought great risks to the development of agricultural e-commerce in China.
3.2 Agricultural products quality and safety risks
The quality and safety risk of agricultural products refers to the adverse effects on people, animals and plants and the environment due to the quality of agricultural products not meeting the relevant requirements, as well as the possibility of economic losses. The quality and safety of agricultural products are related to national health and life safety, to the international reputation and competitiveness of Chinese food and agricultural products, and to the economic development and social security of Chinese agricultural industry. The quality and safety risks of agricultural products mainly come from the following aspects:
First, environmental pollution. The rapid development of agriculture has brought unprecedented economic growth to China, but it has also brought unprecedented environmental pollution and ecological destruction to us. The environmental pollution of agricultural production is serious, which makes a large number of residual pollutants accumulate in soil and water sources and transfer to agricultural products through plant absorption, which seriously affects the quality and safety of agricultural products in China.
Second, the awareness of quality and safety of agricultural products is weak. For a long time, the producers, processors and sellers of agricultural products in China have a weak awareness of the quality and safety of agricultural products (food), and the excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers in agricultural breeding has led to excessive pesticide and fertilizer residues in crops in China; In the process of processing and selling agricultural products, the excessive use of agricultural inputs such as hormones and preservatives has aggravated the quality and safety risks of agricultural products in China.
Third, the quality and safety management of agricultural products is backward. Mainly reflected in multi-head management, lack of coordination mechanism, lack of perfect supervision system, backward quality standards of agricultural products, lack of traceability system of agricultural products quality and safety, etc. Eventually, the management efficiency of agricultural products quality and safety in China is low, and agricultural products quality and safety incidents occur frequently.
3.3 Agricultural products circulation risk
The circulation risk of agricultural products refers to the risks that occur in the circulation process of agricultural products, including the losses caused by poor storage facilities in the place of origin and sales, the losses caused by the non-compliance of cold chain logistics and distribution in the transportation process, the losses caused by the failure of both the supply and demand sides of agricultural products to deliver on time, and the natural loss of agricultural products.
Because agricultural products are mostly fresh products, they need cold chain circulation. According to relevant data, in recent years, the cold chain circulation rates of fruits and vegetables, meat and aquatic products in China are only 5%, 15% and 23% respectively, resulting in the circulation loss rate of agricultural products as high as 25% to 30%; The cold chain circulation rate of meat and poultry in developed countries in Europe and America reaches 100%, and the cold chain circulation rate of vegetables and fruits is also above 95%. Therefore, the backward cold chain distribution technology and equipment are the fundamental reasons for the high logistics loss and difficult quality assurance of agricultural products in China. In addition, the single circulation channel, low level of informatization and high logistics cost are also the reasons for the logistics risks of agricultural products.
3.4 Talent Risk
Talent risk refers to the potential risk brought by the lack of professional talents to the development of agricultural e-commerce in China. The development of agricultural e-commerce in China is still in the primary stage, and it is also in the process of China's transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, and the demand for talents is particularly great. Developing agricultural e-commerce requires not only a large number of professionals in modern agriculture and e-commerce, but also a large number of professionals who are proficient in management, marketing and computer application. However, at present, in the development of agricultural e-commerce, the lack of all kinds of talents is a common phenomenon [3]. Research shows that the demand of county-level online merchants for e-commerce talents exceeds 2 million, among which the three most lacking talents are operation promotion, art design and data analysis [4]. The main reasons are as follows:
First, the attraction of rural talents in China is low. The rural agricultural environment in China is poor, and the development conditions and platforms are not as mature as those in cities. Therefore, people with a little education will choose to stay in the city for development.
Second, there is insufficient understanding of agricultural e-commerce. At present, many people engaged in agricultural e-commerce in China have insufficient understanding of the concept of agricultural e-commerce. They simply think that engaging in agricultural e-commerce is to open an online shop, and they have no clear understanding of product planning, quality standard formulation, brand packaging, promotion, sales, logistics and after-sales in e-commerce management.
3.5 Credit risk of online transactions
The credit risk of online transaction refers to the risk that the credit information of the transaction subject cannot be understood by the other party because of the virtuality and particularity of online transaction. The trust of buyers and sellers is the basis of successful online transactions. However, at present, China's e-commerce trading market is in disorder, and online credit disputes occur from time to time. The main manifestations are incomplete and inaccurate commodity information, which leads to the product quality can not be guaranteed, the seller's delivery is not timely, the customer's complaints can not be handled in time and effectively, and the buyer's malicious refund and return behavior [5]. The reasons for the credit risk of online transactions are: on the one hand, the relevant laws and regulations of online transactions in China are not perfect; On the other hand, there is insufficient understanding of credit, and when credit conflicts with interests, credit gives way to interests.
3.6 operational risk of network platform
The operational risk of agricultural e-commerce network platform refers to the risks faced by agricultural e-commerce network platform in the daily operation process, which are mainly manifested in three aspects: system operation professional management, system upgrade and adjustment, and collaborative operation with business partners [6]. The efficient operation of agricultural e-commerce platform depends on the zero-distance communication between online customer service staff and customers, the support of backstage staff, and the participation of many partners such as inventory, logistics and third-party payment platforms. Therefore, teamwork and quick response of all parties involved play a vital role in the operational efficiency of agricultural e-commerce. Once one of them is delayed or interrupted, the whole enterprise will face the risk of network platform operation. In addition, with the further development of China's agricultural e-commerce, the homogenization of agricultural e-commerce platform mode, service and products will also make China's agricultural e-commerce enterprises face operational risks.
4 agricultural e-commerce development risk resolution
Agricultural e-commerce is a breakthrough in the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture in China, and it is also a new direction of agricultural development in the future. Through analysis, it is found that China's agricultural e-commerce faces risks such as market, quality and safety, logistics and credit. In order to resolve or reduce the impact of these risks on the development of agricultural e-commerce in China, we can start from the following aspects.
First, accelerate the construction of rural information infrastructure, popularize network application knowledge, and provide technical support for the development of agricultural e-commerce. To develop agricultural e-commerce, we must speed up the construction of rural information infrastructure, improve rural network coverage, reduce rural internet access fees and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. At the same time, educate and train rural residents, popularize the knowledge of network application, make farmers understand and be good at using the Internet, and provide more ways and channels for agricultural products to enter cities and industrial products to go to the countryside.
Second, promote the construction of agricultural e-commerce laws and regulations, popularize relevant legal knowledge, and provide legal support for the development of agricultural e-commerce. With the development of information network, e-commerce came into being. Although the legal research on network security has appeared in developed countries in Europe and America, the laws and regulations related to agricultural e-commerce are basically blank. Especially in China, agricultural e-commerce started late, the related infrastructure construction lagged behind, and false transactions, network fraud, hacker attacks and other phenomena occurred from time to time. In order to standardize the industrial environment and promote the development of agricultural e-commerce in China, it is urgent to promote the construction of laws and regulations related to agricultural e-commerce, establish and improve the agricultural e-commerce system and optimize the development environment of agricultural e-commerce. Formulate forward-looking and feasible laws, regulations and standards for e-commerce transactions, payment methods, logistics and distribution, credit guarantee, contract performance, financing services, etc., to maintain the order of agricultural e-commerce transactions and prevent transaction risks.
Third, improve the standardization system of agricultural products, improve the traceability mechanism of quality and safety, and provide a sound and effective supervision mechanism for the development of agricultural e-commerce. Standardize agricultural products in quality (quality certification, origin certification, etc.). ), processing technology and specifications (weight), establish a perfect standard system of agricultural products, in line with international standards. Improve the traceability mechanism of quality and safety, establish a traceability supervision system of agricultural products quality and safety characterized by prevention, control and traceability, and realize the whole process supervision of agricultural products from field to table, from production and processing to circulation and consumption.
Fourth, improve the social credit system, improve the trust of online transactions, and provide a long-term and effective transaction restraint mechanism for the development of agricultural e-commerce. To reduce the credit risk of agricultural e-commerce online transactions, on the one hand, we should improve the social credit system, establish credit concepts, improve network security, and ensure the security of databases and the safe transmission of information; On the other hand, in the development of agricultural e-commerce, distribution centers, certification centers, electronic banks and other departments need to participate, so all departments need to unite, form industry associations, formulate industry norms, reduce the credit risk of e-commerce, and form a long-term and effective transaction restraint mechanism. For example, establish a credit review and rating mechanism, establish a blacklist system, and improve the supervision of online transactions by the whole society.
Fifth, optimize the internal industrial structure, build your own agricultural brand, and take the road of agricultural industrialization and brand development. At present, China's agriculture is still in the stage of low-end primary agricultural products trade, and the deep processing of agricultural products is not enough, and the processing level needs to be improved, resulting in imperfect quality standards, low product grade, low scientific and technological content and weak market competitiveness. At the same time, the brand management of agricultural products and processed products is not strong enough, the brand marketing awareness of leading processing enterprises is insufficient, and there is a lack of agricultural brands with local resource characteristics, quality characteristics, functional characteristics and cultural connotations. To solve these problems, we must take the road of agricultural industrialization and brand development. Agricultural self-owned brands are truly enriched, and agricultural e-commerce can grow and develop.
The promotion of agricultural e-commerce is a huge systematic project, which requires the joint efforts and actions of the government, enterprises, industry associations and the public. The government should play a leading role in policy and further increase its support for agricultural e-commerce. The government's support is not only to give financial support to agriculture-related e-commerce, but also to increase the impetus in the construction of rural information infrastructure, improve laws and regulations, promulgate incentive policies, establish restraint mechanisms and establish credit mechanisms. The government, enterprises and trade associations should unite to help farmers and rural areas innovate their ideas and ways of thinking, and then innovate their production and management methods to change the backward situation in rural areas of China. The perfection of social credit system depends on the public's understanding of credit formation. In this way, everyone can actively safeguard their good reputation and supervise others.