Core conclusion:

1, Foreword: The market is getting better in the New Year.

Optimistic about the three core driving factors of the New Year's market, first, macro conditions, moderate economic recovery and tight currency; Second, the foundation of the boom, the recovery will bring about the restoration of pro-cyclical profits, and 5G will open up the space for scientific and technological growth; Third, the valuation level, the low valuation is at a historical low, and the technology stock Q3 is fully adjusted back.

2. Elaboration: Calendar effect of industry rotation.

We take the rising probability of various industries since 20 10 as the statistical caliber. Generally speaking, in the first quarter, science and technology dominated; In the second quarter, the consumer category dominated; In the third quarter, the military industry was dominant, and the chemical industry, electronics and media were also highly likely to rise under the peak season. In the fourth quarter, exports and low valuations dominated.

Section 1: Science and technology are dominant. On the one hand, compared with the whole year, the rising probability of various industries is obviously higher; On the other hand, horizontally, science and technology are dominant.

The second quarter: the consumer category is dominant. On the one hand, compared with the first quarter, the rising probability of various industries has declined as a whole; On the other hand, under the horizontal comparison, the rising probability of consumption represented by medicine, food and beverage, and household appliances is at the top.

In the third quarter, the military industry dominated. On the one hand, the overall rising probability of various industries has increased compared with the second quarter; On the other hand, in horizontal comparison, the rising probability of military, chemical and leisure services is in the top.

In the fourth quarter, the export category dominated. On the one hand, the rising probability of 10 is generally high; On the other hand, export category and low valuation category have comparative advantages. For export categories, the fourth quarter entered the peak season driven by Black Friday, online shopping Monday and Christmas. For low valuation, the relative income is reflected in the demand for institutional guaranteed income near the end of the year.

catalogue

1. Foreword: The new year market is getting better and better.

Since June 10, we have turned over a lot of quotes, first mentioning the New Year quotes, and then mainly recommending procyclical and technology stocks.

In the choice of structure, the background of the New Year's market is the normalization of currency, with too many structures, and the matching of valuation and profit is the key. We believe that low valuation and technology are dominant, and the pro-cyclical economy represented by banks and transportation is improving quarter by quarter, and the valuation is at a historical low; Science and technology, represented by semiconductors and military industry, has experienced an accelerated boom, and its share price has been fully adjusted since July.

In this weekly report, we focus on the calendar effect of A-share industry rotation.

2. In detail: the calendar effect of industry rotation.

2. 1 Q 1: Science and technology dominate.

Combined with the rising probability of the industry in each month in the first quarter, it can be found that, first, compared with the whole year, the rising probability of the industry is obviously high; Second, compared horizontally, technology is dominant.

Specifically, 1 month, the adjustment period of institutional warehouses, melee style, military industry, transportation, household appliances, machinery, automobiles, etc. are among the top rising probabilities.

February is often the main month of the spring market, and the risk appetite is improved. In addition, the probability of computers and electrons rising is about 965,438+0%. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, agriculture and textile services are also in a leading position.

In March, the off-season of cement gradually began to peak, and the probability of building materials rising reached 73%. In addition, the rising probability of medicine, leisure services and electronics reached 64%.

2.2 the second quarter: consumer category dominated.

Looking back at the second quarter, we can find that, on the one hand, compared with the first quarter, the rising probability of various industries has declined as a whole; On the other hand, under the horizontal comparison, the rising probability of consumption represented by medicine, food and beverage, and household appliances is at the top.

In April, combined with the law of resumption, the spring market often came to an end, with banks, non-banks, home appliances, automobiles, food and beverages at the top. It can be found that in the late stage of the main market, while the big finance made up for the increase, the structure gradually shifted from offensive technology to defensive consumption.

In May, the style turned to defense, and the rising probability of household appliances, food and beverage, and medicine was among the highest. In addition, in the context of the May Day holiday, the rising probability of leisure services is also in the forefront.

In June, the market brewed a new wave of bands, and the style was scuffled. Medicine has the highest probability of rising, and household appliances, automobiles, public utilities and electronic products are among the top gainers.

2.3 Third quarter: Military industry dominated.

In the third quarter, the interim report season has been started since July. On the one hand, the overall rising probability of various industries has increased compared with the second quarter; On the other hand, in horizontal comparison, the rising probability of military, chemical and leisure services is in the top.

Based on the industry performance in July and August, it can be found that, first, the military industry has the highest probability of rising, and the August 1 ST Army Day is an important catalyst; Second, the probability of media rising in August reached 73%, and the summer file was the key catalyst; Third, chemical industry, agriculture, leisure services, electronics, etc. There is a high probability of rising, and entering the peak demand season is the key driving factor.

In September, leisure services, electrical equipment and automobiles are the most likely industries to rise. For cars, after the end of the off-season in August, September enters a typical peak season. In this context, new energy vehicles have obviously promoted the automobile industry and electrical equipment.

2.4 the fourth quarter: the export category dominated.

In the fourth quarter, on the one hand, the rising probability of 10 is higher as a whole; On the other hand, export category and low valuation category have comparative advantages. For export categories, the fourth quarter entered the peak season driven by Black Friday, online shopping Monday and Christmas. For low valuation, the relative income is reflected in the demand for institutional guaranteed income near the end of the year.

Taking 10 and 10 as a whole, in the first month of10, the rising probability of export-oriented household appliances and low-valued typical industrial banks reached 9 1%. Second, it entered the peak season of cement in the fourth quarter, and the rising probability of building materials was the highest in June 5438+ 10 and June 5438+065438+ 10; Third, in June 165438+ 10, the rising probability was the highest.

During the period of 65438+February, the overall rising probability of various industries decreased, among which the rising probability of household appliances was the highest, reaching 73%; The probability of non-ferrous metals rising is second, reaching 64%.

3. Risk warning

1, Sino-US economic and trade friction exceeded expectations. If Sino-US economic and trade friction exceeds expectations, or to some extent, it will affect the performance release rhythm of the science and technology sector.

2. The degree of liquidity tightening exceeded expectations. If liquidity tightens more than expected, it may further affect the valuation level of the technology sector.

Looking back last week