Since May 2008, the national broiler market price has been declining, with an average of about 2 yuan per kilogram. At present, the average price of broiler market in China is around 8.4 yuan/kg, and the overall price level is relatively stable. The analysis shows that the price will fluctuate again from the future to the end of the year. The price will drop slightly in the near future, and may reach 1 1 ~ 12 yuan/kg. Later, with the decrease of market supply and the increase of demand, the price will rise to 9 yuan/Jin.

Second, the reasons for the decline in broiler prices

There are several reasons for the recent sharp drop in broiler prices through analysis and investigation:

1, the slaughter of broilers has increased. Since 2008, the price of broilers has been rising for nearly a month and then began to fall back. In March, the price of broilers began to rise all the way, and then began to fall back after mid-May. Because of the interest-driven, farmers began to make up the stalls one after another, and the stock increased.

In September, due to the pull of the two festivals, farmers had hope for this, and the number of supplementary columns increased relatively. At the same time, they hoped that the Olympic Games would drive the increase of broiler consumption in the early stage, and the good times were short-lived, but the price was still so dull after the rebound before the holiday, which was mainly related to the increase in the supply of farmers.

Take Jiangsu as an example: Before 10, the price in Jiangsu was hovering at a low level, only fluctuating around the profit balance point, which seriously hit the enthusiasm of farmers and directly led to the decline of the stock. With the decrease of supply, prices began to rise, entering 10, and only Jiangsu was popular all the way. At the same time, the price of seedlings is also the highest in the country. Up to now, the average price is 2.57 yuan/feather. (Attached Figure1:Price Trend of Broilers in 2007-2008)

2. The profit of broiler decreased. From Figure 2, we can clearly understand the current trend of broiler profits. In the first half of 2008, due to the considerable profits of broilers, the amount of supplementary poultry by farmers increased, which directly led to a sharp drop in prices in May, and the market was saturated, which hit the amount of supplementary poultry by farmers again and the price rebounded.

At the same time, the price of this batch of seedlings once rose to 4.6 yuan/kg, but because the price and feed raw materials of this batch of seedlings are more expensive than in the previous period, the profit is not as high as expected, but there is still room for profit of about 5 yuan/kg.

Recently, consumption is weak, and prices are hard to rise because of the lack of festivals. However, due to the low supply in the early stage, the market price in Jiangsu increased greatly.

Based on the principle of supply and demand in economics, price decline is inevitable.

Three. Future expectations and impact on the industry

The price of broilers will fall in the future, mainly because the current market and policy environment for developing broilers are good, so the slaughter of broilers will continue to increase, and this situation will not change without special circumstances (epidemic situation).

At the same time, because there are more festivals in the later period, consumption drives prices up and supply increases. However, it will not rise or fall sharply, mainly because the production cycle of broilers is relatively short and the supply elasticity is relatively large, which directly reflects that the price fluctuation is not great unless there is a major epidemic or the feed raw materials rise.

Due to the decline of price, income and broiler production profit, the balance point of broiler feeding profit is about 4 yuan/kg at present, so the current breeding is near the break-even point. All broiler farms need to strengthen the overwintering management of chicken farms, control diseases and improve survival rate. Reorganize the chickens and reduce the cost of ineffective feeding.

From the perspective of the whole industry, the risk of price fluctuation is increasing, so it is necessary to make a sober analysis and adopt a scientific and pragmatic development strategy.