Whether there are more and more people or fewer people in Shenzhen, I think this understanding will be more appropriate. First of all, there is an extreme shortage of degrees in Shenzhen. On the one hand, the government builds it every day, on the other hand, the citizens are short of it every day. At least judging from the number of primary school students, the conclusion that there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen remains to be discussed, but can it be said that there are more and more people in Shenzhen? I don't think so, because the number of factories in Shenzhen is indeed decreasing, and the corresponding population should also be decreasing. Business in the village in the city is not good. Why? That's it when there are fewer people! Where did that man go? Affordable housing, talent housing, low-rent housing, relatively remote houses outside Guanwai and Linshen in Huizhou, Dongguan, have absorbed a considerable number of people who originally lived in Guannei Village and Guannei Village. So whether there are many people or few people, I think it should be said that there are many people who are suitable for Shenzhen, and there are many people who feel that they are not suitable for Shenzhen to leave. So it should be said that there are many people and few people. There are many people leaving and many people coming, so the overall situation should not change much.

My personal attitude is full of confidence about what tomorrow will be like in Shenzhen. I believe that Shenzhen will have a better tomorrow, better medical care, better education and better old-age care. As long as you can really find your place in Shenzhen, settle down and work hard, tomorrow will be better.

According to the official statistics of Shenzhen, the data of permanent population has increased, but the actual population (including permanent population and temporary population, that is, people who have lived in transit places for less than half a year or a short time) has dropped sharply.

According to the data released by Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 20 18, the resident population of Shenzhen was13,026,600, an increase of 498,300 over the end of last year.

The growth of the official resident population is mainly due to the growth of the registered population, with an increase of 4.6%, accounting for 34.9% of the resident population; The permanent non-registered population increased by 3.6%, accounting for 65. 1%.

Shenzhen's industrial structure adjustment, elimination of low-end industries, coupled with high housing prices and high rent costs, the actual population outflow rate ranks first in first-tier cities. The superposition of positive and negative shows that there are many floating population who have moved out, and the flow direction of the largest number of people who have moved out is Dongguan.

For Shenzhen, the decrease of actual population also reflects the short-term loss of Shenzhen's manufacturing industry, which can be seen from the sharp slowdown of Shenzhen's economic growth in the third quarter of 20 19. But in the long run, the optimization of industrial structure will attract high-end talents to gather, and high-end manufacturing and advanced manufacturing will develop by leaps and bounds. In a word, Shenzhen will have a better tomorrow.

To answer whether there are more and fewer people in Shenzhen in the future, and what will happen in the future, we must know what Shenzhen is like in history!

Historically, Shenzhen was a gathering place for gold diggers. This is because the history of Shenzhen is related to the industrial transfer of Hong Kong and the prosperity of Shenzhen's mobile phone electronics industry. During the 20 years when these industries flourished in Shenzhen, I worked and traveled in Shenzhen and deeply felt the legend of Shenzhen!

Give a few examples:

0 1 year, I am the supervisor of a battery factory, and there is a team leader below, which is very unreliable. Every day, he gets mixed up and forms a gang. After I warned him many times, I dismissed him without hesitation. Later, he borrowed 50,000 yuan from his family to make an mp3 player. Only a year later, he drove the Jetta back to the factory to show off. Earned 200,000 to 300,000 in more than one year (at that time, the monthly income of the supervisor was around 2,500).

In 2008, during the global financial crisis, my boss switched from a finished battery to a white-brand mobile phone (cottage). In one year, he switched from a battery to a mobile phone, and then it reached100000 in one month. At that time, g-five, a company, was originally assembled for our company, and later achieved a turnover of 5 billion a year.

/kloc-in 0/2, I started a mobile phone company with a few friends and cooperated with a friend who was planning. This friend specializes in planning outsourcing and basically buys a suite in Longhua every year (at that time, the house price was around 20,000, and a suite1002 million). It's been several years. I know five or six suites.

In Shenzhen, there are about 500,000 employees engaged in the mobile phone industry and supporting facilities, and 500,000 people only enter and leave Huaqiang North every day. At present, Shenzhen has entered the adjustment period of industrial transformation. The typical feature is that my original circle of friends gradually withdrew from the mobile phone industry and transformed into other industries. Some make e-cigarettes, some make Bluetooth headsets, and some directly do Amazon e-commerce. However, from the perspective of the mobile phone industry, it has basically declined, and few people insist on doing or can do it in this industry.

From the perspective of small and medium-sized enterprises in Shenzhen, in the original mobile phone industry, more people transformed into trade, rather than the upstream or midstream or supporting facilities of the original industry, and more people went to the surrounding and downstream trade-jumping factories, doing trade, buying goods and selling them.

At present, taking Qianhai as an example, the original asset management company model, private placement model and p2p industry have all closed down and been supervised. A large number of commercial and residential buildings and office buildings in Qianhai are vacant. My friend has a one-story office building in Qianhai, which has been vacant for several years since 17, and has not charged rent-the original rent 15- 16, and the monthly rent is 65438.

From my friend's point of view as a battery mobile phone factory, it is basically impossible to persist at present, and it is increasingly difficult to maintain it by going out of business and transforming into other industries or trade.

According to the information I got, there is a huge gap between the prosperity of related industries in Shenzhen and that of Shenzhen before 14, and there are even signs of depression and shrinkage. This is mainly due to the continuous rise of housing prices and labor costs in Shenzhen, as well as the sharp decline of the mobile phone industry and electronics industry on which Shenzhen relies, which leads to incomplete industrial transformation and adjustment and the lack of new industries and opportunities to replace the original industries.

The prosperous time I experienced in Shenzhen was behind the development and prosperity of industries and supporting facilities, which brought great social prosperity and development opportunities. At present, we have not seen the direction and success of the transformation. Over time, if the transformation is successful and the direction is clear, people like me and my friends, as well as practitioners in related industries, will still return to Shenzhen in history. According to my own feelings, life after leaving Shenzhen is very uncomfortable:

The mainland not only has no industry, no environment, no opportunities, no developed supporting facilities and industrial employees, but also has no such business atmosphere. Life is simple and boring. If there are more industrial opportunities and investment opportunities, we people will definitely go back to Shenzhen for gold with the wealth accumulated in history-because other cities have no opportunities, supporting facilities and sufficient industrial space, and there is no wealth effect.

What I said can only be felt by people who have been to Shenzhen, especially those who have experienced it in Shenzhen and returned to the mainland!

It should be less and less. 10 years ago, the villages on the edge of Shenzhen were like pedestrian streets, with people coming and going. At present, only on holidays, some places are crowded, remote and deserted, becoming more and more urbanized, unable to accommodate bottom-level workers, and most industries have moved and dispersed to many inland places. Shenzhen dream is no longer the dream of the bottom workers.

There are fewer and fewer people here in Shenzhen. Since 17 began to build a physical store in Songgang, the number of people has decreased year by year, and business has become more and more difficult. The small factories around us have all moved to Huizhou, Dongguan. I'm also going to see if Huizhou in Dongguan has developed there in the past two years, or returned to my hometown for development. The rent here is expensive. What is the cost of tea? A small sleeper, 65438+80000 yuan. That's why I moved out of my old shop.

There are two different statistical channels for whether the population of Shenzhen is increasing or decreasing, one is official statistical data, and the other is actual population data.

According to official statistics, the population data of Shenzhen is actually increasing. According to the statistics of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 20 18, the permanent population of Shenzhen was13,026,600, an increase of 498,300. Among them, the permanent registered population was 4.547 million, an increase of 4.6%, accounting for 34.9% of the permanent population; The permanent non-registered population was 8,479,700, an increase of 3.6%, accounting for 65. 1%. The actual population distribution in each district is as follows:

According to the official statistics of Shenzhen, the population growth rate of Shenzhen is still relatively fast. The reason why the population growth rate of Shenzhen is relatively fast is mainly due to the growth rate of registered population. For example, in 20 18, the growth rate of registered population in Longgang, Longhua, Pingshan and Guangming all reached more than 10%, and the population growth rate in Longhua even reached 16.8%, which made Shenzhen a city.

Of course, in addition to the population data counted by the Bureau of Statistics, we can also infer the population growth rate of Shenzhen from the other two data.

The number 1 is the number of kindergartens in the park. By the end of 20 18, the number of kindergartens in Shenzhen had reached 530,000, surpassing Beijing, Shanghai and other cities and becoming the largest city in China.

The second data is the number of social security payers. According to the data released by Shenzhen Social Security Bureau, at the end of 201kloc-0/57.83 (including employees 1004. 1600, urban residents 1536700). The number of participants in Shenzhen increased to 14669200 (including1151.010000, an increase of14.6% compared with 20 14; The number of urban residents participating in medical insurance is 24,565,438+10,000, an increase of 59.5% over 20 14).

As can be seen from the above data, the permanent population of Shenzhen has actually been increasing, but why do many people feel that the population of Shenzhen is getting smaller and smaller at present? This mainly involves a problem of actually managing the population.

Judging from the actual population management, the population of Shenzhen is decreasing. The population actually managed and the resident population are two different concepts. The permanent population is the population who has lived in this city for a long time, while the actually managed population includes the permanent population and part of the temporary population, including those who have lived for less than half a year or have just crossed the border.

Although the official resident population of Shenzhen is only over130,000, according to other statistics, the population actually managed by Shenzhen is at least 22 million. Previously, Guangdong Mobile Big Data Application Innovation Center released a "Research Report on Demography of Shenzhen Based on Mobile Big Data", which used mobile big data to conduct demography of Shenzhen. Statistics show that as of 20 17, the daily average resident population in Shenzhen is about 22 million to 23 million.

In addition, on 20 15, an institution in Shenzhen counted the number of houses in Shenzhen. By 20 15, there will be 600,000 housing units in Shenzhen, and the actual registered population will exceed16.5 million. If the unregistered temporary population is included, the actual population is at least 20 million.

Therefore, the population actually managed by Shenzhen has been about 8 million more than the permanent population officially announced by Shenzhen.

In the last year or two, the official resident population of Shenzhen has been increasing, but everyone feels that the population of Shenzhen has decreased a lot. In fact, these floating population has been significantly reduced.

In recent years, with the continuous adjustment of Shenzhen's industrial structure, many low-end industries have been gradually eliminated. Coupled with the rising cost of housing and rent, the production cost of enterprises is getting higher and higher, and the living cost of employees is also getting higher and higher. At present, many factories in Shenzhen have moved their factories to Dongguan, Huizhou or Zhongshan Jiangmen. For example, Huawei moved its terminal to Songshan Lake in Dongguan. The relocation of a large number of enterprises directly leads to fewer factories and fewer corresponding workers.

The population actually managed by Shenzhen has decreased. What impact will it have on Shenzhen? In what direction will Shenzhen develop? As we all know, China's economy has made remarkable achievements in the past few decades because of the demographic dividend, which not only provided cheap labor and intellectual support for China's social and economic development, but also created a huge consumer market with a large population.

It can be seen that population has a great positive effect on economic development. For Shenzhen, the population actually managed is decreasing. In what direction will Shenzhen develop?

First of all, the population decline will have a certain impact on Shenzhen in the short term, because the population decline not only represents the decline of population data, but more importantly, the manufacturing industry is also losing its population. Population loss is only the most direct manifestation of manufacturing loss. This can be seen from the sharp slowdown of Shenzhen's economic growth in the third quarter of 20 19.

Secondly, in the long run, the reduction of floating population will not have much impact on Shenzhen. Although the population actually managed by Shenzhen has decreased at present, the permanent population of Shenzhen is actually increasing every year, and its attraction to the population is still in the forefront of the country. These new population are basically high-end talents, which is of great help to the adjustment and upgrading of Shenzhen's industrial structure and the creation of advanced manufacturing industry with high technology as the main body.

Therefore, on the whole, although the decrease of the actual management population in Shenzhen will make Shenzhen experience a painful period similar to that in 2008 in the short term, the development potential of Shenzhen is still sufficient, especially in some high-end manufacturing industries and advanced manufacturing industries, and Shenzhen is still at the forefront of the country. Perhaps the elimination of many backward production capacity in Shenzhen will have a great impact on GDP in the short term, but in the long run, I think this adjustment is more conducive to the sustained and healthy development of Shenzhen's economy.

I'm sure that there are fewer and fewer people in Shenzhen. After reading several answers, it is said that there are more and more people. I don't know how this answer came from. Now many labor-intensive factories have moved out of Shenzhen, because for enterprises, the cost of employing people in Shenzhen is higher than that in other places, the rent is expensive and the cost of materials is higher. For workers. The price in Shenzhen is high and the rent is expensive. In the past, the couple could rent a single room for 300 yuan, but now it's six or seven hundred yuan. The cost is very high in all aspects. A month's work is only four or five thousand, with rent, living expenses and a family to support. There is no money at all, so many people choose to work elsewhere. The most obvious thing about the lack of people is that the streets outside the customs are much less crowded. The houses rented in the past were basically empty, but now there are rents everywhere, and there are commissions for introducing tenants! People in the street used to be congested every Sunday, but now it makes no difference in peacetime. There are many busy streets, and few shops can do business well. It used to be difficult to find shops. There are transfers everywhere now! Under such circumstances, some people say that the population of Shenzhen is more than before?

According to official statistics, the population is not small, but judging from our living environment and the surrounding shopping malls and roads, the population density is not as high as before. Personnel moved into the original customs independently. Industrial upgrading, rising rents, improved employment treatment in the mainland, and many people have also returned to their hometowns for development.

In Shenzhen, most people can't afford to buy a house, so they can only rent it. However, due to the rise of long-term rental apartments and the inertia of the original landlord's annual rent increase. The living pressure of migrant workers is getting bigger every year. Former old factories, dormitories and rural houses were demolished, renovated and renovated. It's magnificent, and it feels a little forced to raise the consumption level.

Let's just say that I drove from Longgang to Nanshan to work three months ago and left at seven o'clock. It takes 9 o'clock to get to Nanshan. 65438+ I1I can leave at 7: 40 at the end of October. It will arrive after 8: 30. There are many people but few things. Let's think for ourselves.

Judging from the published data, the population of Shenzhen is increasing. Generally speaking, the population is divided into registered population and permanent population, which I believe needs no explanation. For a developed first-tier city like Shenzhen, it is not objective to measure its population by registered population, because Shenzhen's population is so attractive that it attracts millions of migrants every year. As of 20 18, the registered population of Shenzhen is only 4.547 million, but the permanent population is as high as13.02 million, more than 8 million. Therefore, every year in Spring Festival travel rush, everyone goes home for the New Year. It's not that there are no people, but more than half of them are missing and become depressed. At present, the permanent population of Shenzhen is growing at a rate of 400,000-500,000 every year, and the population increment ranks first among cities in China.

But you may think that the population of Shenzhen seems to be less? In fact, there is still a data that actually manages the population! The permanent population refers to the population who always lives at home or at home for more than half a year, that is to say, those who have lived in Shenzhen for less than half a year are not considered permanent population. Because of Shenzhen's developed economy and large population mobility, the actual managed population is more than the resident population, exceeding 20 million. In recent years, the actual population of Shenzhen tends to be saturated or declining, and the rise of e-commerce and take-away industries has enabled many people to shop and eat without leaving home, resulting in fewer and fewer people on the street, which makes people feel that the population of Shenzhen is getting less and less.

As for Shenzhen, what will it be like tomorrow? It can be said that it shines at the moment! The economic growth rate in Shenzhen has slowed down this year, and many people speculate that it will decline. In fact, this kind of voice never existed. More than a decade ago, an article entitled "Shenzhen, Who Abandoned You" was a sensation, but Shenzhen has not been abandoned so far, but it has become stronger and stronger. The bottleneck of economic development in the short term does not mean that it will collapse in the future, and a city cannot maintain rapid growth forever. At present, the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is in full swing, and Shenzhen has been given the task of building Socialism with Chinese characteristics as the first demonstration area and building a global benchmark city. How can such a city have bad development prospects?