As mentioned in the last article, boss Xiao Tuhao L bought the original shares of the New Third Board, and as a result, 500,000 yuan was exchanged for an "equity contract" that could not be eaten or used.

For similar investments, Xiao Z always plays with ease, with a net profit of 60% for more than one year, and the other half is still appreciating.

Old l chooses projects based on experience and sensibility. First of all, I have a good impression on the salesman of that private equity company. "Zhu Xiao is very real." ; "Not like a liar."

Of course, the information given by Zhu Xiao, the old L also "let his daughter check it online, that's right."

In fact, to examine whether a target company can succeed in IPO, we can't just look at some fragmented reports and data, which is likely to be partial and irrelevant.

Need to use clear clues for systematic analysis.

See PE "menu" (business cooperation mode) specifically; Second, look at the project elements (resources, industry, financial report, risk control).

Recipes and eating habits

The first thing to look at is the menu of PE (Private Equity Company).

What does he eat?

Equity operation is a long and huge systematic project, and no institution can handle it independently and get huge profits. Then, who is the partner and who is the profit target (who eats) is particularly important. It determines the strategic mode of fund operation.

Referring to the ecological chain diagram of "burning money-circling money" in the last article, one way to eat it is that PE companies collude with the target enterprises of packaging, and directly regard small local tyrants and middle-class investors as the bottom targets of circling money (beating local tyrants) and circling money to leave.

Another recipe mode is that pe company positions itself as a resource integration center, selects target enterprises with excellent qualifications to cooperate, and then organizes tripartite cooperation between small local tyrants and middle-class investors, with retail investors in the stock market as the ultimate goal of making money and shearing wool as the profit means.

Obviously, the mode of "beating local tyrants" is ugly and dangerous. For example, if a cheetah wants to kill a wolf directly, it is likely to be torn to pieces by an angry wolf.

The way to eat "shearing wool" is much more "elegant". A cheetah leads a pack of wolves to hunt sheep. Sheep have no place to reason. Because sheep are born for wolves and leopards, this is the natural ecology.

As for how to observe and judge the eating method of PE recipes, the follow-up article will explain it immediately.

Project elements and risk control

Then, secondly, it is necessary to analyze the profit and loss elements of specific projects. It mainly includes four aspects: resources, industry, financial report and risk control.

The so-called resources are the capital for the rapid growth of enterprises and the threshold for resisting competition. Then, considering the national conditions of China, even the so-called high-tech enterprises will always feel that it is not practical if they only regard "core technology" and patents as the so-called high-growth resources. It is better to use monopoly industry resources and policy resources, such as scarce license approval, exclusive agent with high gold content, high-quality customer base and other resources to make the foundation more reliable.

The so-called industry is the tuyere industry that reshuffles the economic structure under the background of the new economic normal (to put it bluntly, all industries are generally depressed). To put it bluntly, it is either strongly supported by policies or just needed by society, but it can greatly reduce costs or improve efficiency. But we should pay attention to one thing, not just the concept, but the essence of its operation. How to evaluate it will be disassembled in detail in future articles.

The so-called financial report, generally speaking, of course depends on its revenue, profit growth rate and absolute value in the first three years. And the expected trend in the next three years. But there are many packages. The specific report shall prevail. But as an ordinary investor, as a preliminary screening, we can also see some clues. For example, if the target enterprise has high revenue data, is its sales price higher or lower than that of similar products in the market? If it is too high, there is a problem. Why should others buy it? It's not just that I have high quality, so we can cope with the past. So, where is his customer base mainly distributed? If there are many well-known public companies and listed companies, the problem is not big. And if it is a few "inexplicable" companies, as his main big customers, providing them with revenue and profits, then be careful!

The so-called risk control includes two aspects. The first is the moral hazard of the target enterprise; The first is the operational risk of the target enterprise.

In order to minimize the risk, responsible private equity funds will generally sign a "gambling agreement" with the target enterprise that can guarantee the performance. Because, as a private equity fund, the policy stipulates that you can't sign the terms of guaranteed capital and guaranteed income with investors. However, as a PE party, the law stipulates that it can sign a gambling agreement with the target enterprise. If the target enterprise fails to go public successfully at the expiration of the contract or the operating data fails to meet the contract expectations, the major shareholder of the target enterprise must initiate a premium share repurchase or even liquidation to PE. At the beginning, Zhang Lan of South Beauty was kicked out by investment institutions in this way.

This is equivalent to the curve to provide investors with the protection of capital preservation.

In addition, as a double insurance for risk control, responsible private equity companies will also implant M&A channels for target enterprises. Because both IPO projects and pre-IPO projects are inevitably faced with uncertainties such as policies, international and domestic political and economic backgrounds during the closed period of 2+ 1 year. In case the listing fails, try to achieve a curve listing through an alternative channel-mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and investors can also get the benefits of cash at a premium.

Therefore, in the preparation process, it is very important to verify whether the enterprise has enough high-quality resources to attract large listed enterprises, how many potential acquisition enterprises and how much interest they have.

Then, after examining the qualification potential and risk degree of the target enterprise, decide whether to invest in this project. Price-that is, the subscription price per share-is also a very critical measure. Too low subscription price is obviously "toxic" and should be cautious; Moreover, the subscription price is too high, which reduces the expected income and increases the risk in disguise. What kind of subscription price is reasonable?

Will be interpreted in the next "subscription price and eating method".