Author | Flower Finance Research Institute

Recently, the news that Junlebao is the original Sanlu has been circulated everywhere on the Internet. At that time, I was wondering if something happened to Junlebao products. Although I didn't see the public news, I was surprised. Some insiders said that Junlebao may want an IPO, so some competitors want to discredit Junlebao. However, after searching for a circle, I didn't see the relevant information. However, there have been rumors of listing in Junlebao for several years, and even Hebei Province has issued a document urging Junlebao to go public this year.

Junlebao used to focus on yogurt, but now it has introduced infant milk powder, which opened the market at a low price, but the profit may not be good. Therefore, it is widely rumored in the industry that Junlebao has not been listed, just because infant milk powder has been losing money. There was a slight profit in 20 19, but the profit was too low or even a loss, which could not be well received by the capital market, so the listing plan has been postponed.

Junle Baoran will mainly promote high-priced milk powder, and only when the profit is good will it choose to go public.

From 1995 to 20 19, the revenue exceeded1600 million. It seems to be developing rapidly, but Junlebao has been clamoring for listing, but so far there is no public listing in Junlebao, such as issuing a prospectus and consulting a brokerage firm.

Recently, many online channels are spreading that Junlebao is the original Sanlu, which makes Huahuajun feel very strange. It is estimated that Junlebao will go public, so the competing products are attacking him, but at present, the voice is very high, and no action has been seen.

In order to clear the relationship, Huahuajun carefully combed Junlebao and Sanlu milk powder.

In 2008, Sanlu milk powder melamine incident shocked the whole country. According to the data survey at that time, about 250,000 children suffered from health damage, more than 30,000 children needed hospitalization, and 4 children were directly sentenced to death by fate.

Now when it comes to domestic milk powder, many people are still linked to melamine and dare not give their children domestic milk powder. At that time, melamine was detected in infant milk powder produced by many enterprises.

1995, Junlebao Dairy was born and Wei Lihua was founded in Shijiazhuang. The full name of Shijiazhuang Junlebao Dairy Co., Ltd. mainly produces yogurt.

A while ago, the rumor that Junlebao was Sanlu suddenly spread on the Internet, because the two sides did have old cases.

From 65438 to 0999, Sanlu Group invested in Junlebao in the form of brand and cash, of which the brand price accounted for 29% of the shares, plus 700,000 cash accounted for 5% of the shares. Hold 34%. Since then, Junlebao has become a subsidiary of Sanlu, producing liquid milk. Formerly known as Shijiazhuang Junlebao Dairy Co., Ltd., after Sanlu became a shareholder, it was renamed Shijiazhuang Sanlu Dairy Co., Ltd.

In August 2008, a melamine incident broke out in China, and Sanlu Group's milk powder was found to contain a large amount of melamine. Melamine will hydrolyze into melanin when it enters the human body. When melamine and melanin combine, kidney calculi may appear. Especially in infants, if there are stones in the kidneys, acute renal failure may occur in severe cases. In this case, babies are prone to malnutrition, some children will become big-headed dolls, and more serious people will lose their lives.

Since then, domestic milk powder has been questioned by consumers, and they generally dare not give their babies domestic milk powder.

At that time, Junlebao also had a listing plan, but the Sanlu incident disrupted Junlebao's listing plan. At that time, Sanlu went bankrupt, and Junlebao bought back the equity held by Sanlu and took off the Sanlu logo.

In February 2009, Sanlu Group went bankrupt and its assets were auctioned. In order to draw a clear line with Sanlu quickly, Junlebao changed its name back to Junlebao Dairy Co., Ltd., and Junlebao repurchased 65,438+07% shares held by Sanlu Group and 22% shares of Junlebao Xerox Dairy.

Although there is no direct relationship between Junlebao and Sanlu in milk powder, it used to be a subsidiary of Sanlu, and it will also become an indelible shadow in consumers' hearts.

20 19165438+1On October 20th, Mengniu Dairy announced that it had sold the total registered capital of Shijiazhuang Junlebao Dairy Co., Ltd. as of June165438+19.

Peng Hai Fund, one of the recipients, was established on 20 17, and its executive partner is Hebei Jiantou Chuangfa Fund Management Co., Ltd., which belongs to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Hebei Province. Junlebao once said that the two funds only play the role of holding shares, and Junlebao still maintains independent operation.

20 10, 1 1, Mengniu Group acquired 5 1% equity of Junlebao at a price of 469.2 million yuan, becoming the largest shareholder in Junlebao. At the press conference held at that time, Mengniu expressed the hope that the turnover in Junlebao would double to 4.5 billion yuan in five years, and the sales in Junlebao in 20 15 would reach 6.3 billion yuan, far exceeding the target.

The entry of state-owned institutions into Mengniu to take over Junlebao shares is the hope of Hebei provincial government that Junlebao should shoulder the heavy responsibility of revitalizing Hebei dairy industry. According to media reports, there are almost no decent dairy enterprises except Junlebao. Therefore, for Hebei Province, Junlebao is the best choice to revitalize Hebei dairy industry. But after all, Junlebao is in the second echelon of dairy industry. If Junlebao wants to develop rapidly, it must raise funds in the capital market and get enough funds to support its development. Therefore, listing is the top priority.

Earlier, Hebei executives met with the CEO of COFCO, rumored to solve the equity problem of Junlebao. Hebei Province gave other support in exchange for Junlebao's equity.

Rumors of Junlebao's listing have been heard all the time, but Junlebao just didn't do anything. According to professionals, Junlebao has not been listed, because the profit of milk powder is not ideal, so Junlebao is still adjusting its business.

On April 20 19, the leading group for dairy industry revitalization in Hebei Province issued the Work Plan for Dairy Industry Revitalization in Hebei Province in 20 19, which clearly stated "supporting the listing of the main board of Junlebao Dairy Group and expanding financing channels". According to sources, Junlebao will be listed on the A-share market next year (2020).

However, over the past year or so, problems such as equity have been solved, and there is still no news of Junlebao's listing. According to insiders, it is precisely because the profit of infant milk powder in Junlebao is too low that its statements will not be recognized by the capital market, so Junlebao has postponed its listing.

In 20 14, Junlebao introduced baby milk powder, the price was only 130 yuan, which was far lower than the domestic and foreign competing products, causing a serious impact on the industry.

As a bright spot in the industry, low prices also quickly won the market. Since 20 14 went on the market, the compound annual growth rate of Junlebao milk powder has reached 84.5%, which is ten times faster than that of the industry, and it has become the leading brand in national sales within six years.

However, leading in sales volume may not necessarily lead in profit, and it may even become the death hole of Junlebao. Many industry experts said that because the average price is low and the profit is naturally low, the statements are not good-looking, and institutions will not give high valuations. Therefore, Junlebao has been dragging its listing, and now it is developing high-end milk powder, in order to improve the profit rate and make the report look good.

In terms of infant milk powder, the gross profit margin of He Fei dairy industry is the highest, reaching 70.0%, which is not only significantly higher than other milk powder enterprises, but also comparable to Wuliangye and other liquor enterprises.

According to He Fei's 20 19 annual report, during the reporting period, the company realized operating income of137.2 billion yuan, net profit of 3.93 billion yuan, and recorded gross profit of 96 10 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 70.0%. This is a terrible number,

Wind data shows that in 20 19 years, the gross profit margins of Aoyou and Yashili were 52.5% and 37.1%respectively; As of the first three quarters of 20 19, Beinmei's gross profit margin was 5 1.4%. This means that the gross profit margin of the milk powder industry is generally high.

According to Wang Dingmian, a dairy expert, the production cost of the top-end infant milk powder is only within 100 yuan. Therefore, infant milk powder is very profitable and can be said to be a profiteering industry. However, in such an industry, Junlebao's gross profit is still unsatisfactory and will certainly not be favored by investors in the capital market.

In other words, the price of many products in Junlebao is less than 200, and the profit of He Fei and other brands of milk powder may be the total price of milk powder in Junlebao. How does Junlebao compete with He Fei in profit margin?

In 20 19, the income of high-end infant formula milk powder products in He Fei was 94. 1 100 million yuan, accounting for 68.6% of the total income; The gross profit margin is 75.9%. It is these high-end brands that have improved He Fei's profit margin.

Therefore, Junlebao recently began to develop high-end milk powder. Junlebao, a high-end organic milk powder in the whole industrial chain, buys six and gets one free, and the price per can drops below 300 yuan. Junlebao Youcui has once again become a "subversive" in the high-end milk powder market.

However, compared with the high price in 500 yuan, He Fei, there is still a gap between this price and that in 200 yuan. So Junlebao's profit rate still can't compare with other enterprises.

Song Liang, a dairy analyst, is accepting one of the purposes of pursuing high profits for listing or promoting high-end products in Junlebao.

Milk powder is a product with high profit margin, otherwise, major dairy companies will not lay out infant milk powder crazily. In order to obtain high profits, Junlebao is consciously laying out high-end products. However, the baby birth rate continues to fall, and the market is highly saturated, which also makes Junlebao's prospects confusing.