At present, a new round of oil prices is about to be adjusted. However, according to market feedback, although the change rate of crude oil in this oil pricing cycle started from a negative value, the change range was not large. In the first seven working days after the end, the change rate of crude oil was only-1.38%, which was equivalent to the oil price falling by 50 yuan/ton, just at the critical point of downward adjustment, which was equivalent to the price of ordinary gasoline and diesel falling by 0.04~0.05 yuan/liter!
From the international crude oil market, the current price of light crude oil in the United States is 77. 16, up 1.94%, and the price of Brent crude oil is 83.33, up 1.57%! As the market is worried that Russia's average daily crude oil export will be reduced by 500,000 tons in March, some institutions believe that Russia may further reduce its production capacity to an average of 620,000 barrels per day, which has aggravated the market's bullish sentiment. Therefore, this round of oil prices will not move, and the market is still stranded!
Wheat market:
In the wheat market, the price of wheat has been diving recently. At the beginning of February, the listing price of domestic mainstream milling enterprises was stable at 1.6~ 1.64 yuan/kg. At present, the listing price of mainstream milling enterprises has dropped to 1.54~ 1.57 yuan/kg, and the price of wheat has dropped significantly.
The deep drop in wheat prices is rooted in the sluggish demand for flour after the year. Although the mask problem has come to an end, the consumer demand after the year is less than expected and superimposed. Before the Spring Festival, some flour enterprises stocked in advance, and the inventory of enterprises was relatively loose. After the year, the market replenishment mood was depressed and the delivery of flour was slow, which further weakened the operating rate of enterprises. The inventory consumption of milling enterprises is slow, and the price reduction sentiment is strong!
On the supply side, the price of wheat has increased recently. On the one hand, policy wheat auctions continue; On the other hand, due to the warmer weather, the market pessimism is high, and some traders panic out of positions, which intensifies the pressure on the supply of staged raw grain and supports the downward trend of wheat prices!
However, personally, due to the narrowing of the price difference between wheat and corn, the space for further decline of wheat price may be limited, and the bottom support point of wheat price may wander around 1.54~ 1.55 yuan/kg!
On the one hand, with the recovery of all walks of life and the gradual consumption of stored flour, the operating rate of enterprises will gradually pick up and the demand for raw grain will gradually improve; On the other hand, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level is gradually decreasing, the policy wheat may have the risk of stopping shooting, the inventory of enterprises is constantly consumed, and the mood of replenishing stocks on dips will become more intense! Therefore, in the short term, wheat prices may be dominated by weak shocks, and the space for price decline may be limited!
Soybean meal market:
Recently, the domestic spot price has been declining, and the quotations of mainstream oil plants in many places have been declining. From the market quotation, the prices of domestic mainstream oil plants and traders fell by 20~ 100 yuan/ton, of which the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhanjiang fell by 100 yuan and 4260 yuan/ton; Tianjin traders quoted 44 10 yuan/ton, Shandong quoted 4360 yuan/ton, Jiangsu quoted 43 10 yuan/ton, and coastal mainstream oil plants quoted 4280 ~ 4390 yuan/ton. The national average price of spot soybean meal was 4,430 yuan/ton, down 2,765,438 yuan +0 yuan from 1 month, down 5.8% from the previous month.
The soybean meal market is falling. From the perspective of market supply and demand, the number of imported soybeans has increased. In February and February, the soybean crushing scale of the sample oil plant was nearly120,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory in the oil plant was relatively loose. Imported soybeans will reach 6.5 million tons in March, and the supply of soybean meal is relatively loose. In terms of downstream demand, traders are cautious in replenishing stocks and have poor enthusiasm for picking up goods, which has aggravated the inventory of some oil plants.
According to institutional analysis, from June 5438 to February, the domestic demand for soybean meal was about 9.2 million tons. Due to the lack of profitability of livestock and poultry breeding, the head of pig fattening has suffered more losses, and the recession at the breeding end has also limited the use scale of soybean meal, which is bad for the price of soybean meal! However, in March, due to the reduction of soybean import scale, soybean stocks in some oil plants are in short supply or stopped production, soybean meal stocks will gradually decrease, the pressure on enterprises will gradually weaken, and the price sentiment will become stronger. It is expected that the downward trend of soybean meal price will be slow in March, and the price has the basis of bottoming out!
Pig market:
In the domestic pig market, the price of pigs has been rising recently. On March 65,438+0, the standard pig price rose to 7.95 yuan/kg, and the pig price rose by 0.03 yuan. The pig price rebounded by about 13% compared with the beginning of last month. The logic of the phased increase in pig prices has been expounded many times before!
Personally, on the one hand, the pressure of pig slaughter has dropped sharply, the market is reluctant to sell at high prices, the output of retail pig farms has decreased, the enthusiasm of pig enterprises in the group is average, and the supply of pigs has shrunk; On the other hand, the second fattening bargain-hunting mood is high, the heat of low-standard pigs is rising and superimposed, the enthusiasm of slaughterhouses is improved, and the supply of pigs is slightly insufficient!
However, due to the limited domestic consumption support, although supported by market sentiment, the pig price has strengthened against the trend, but due to the second fattening, the later pig price increase may be further under pressure! According to official data, in March, domestic pig supply has bottomed out and consumer support is still weak. Under the support of the phenomenon of reluctance to sell at the breeding end and the second child, the pig price may remain strong before mid-March! However, as the market sentiment of bargain-hunting falls further, the support for the rise of pig prices is insufficient, and the upward phenomenon of the breeding end is heating up. In the middle and late March, pig prices are still under weak downward pressure!
The pig price will keep the trend of high-frequency fluctuation in March. This month, the pig price will hover around 15.5 ~ 16.5 yuan/kg. Due to the emotional game in the market, pig prices will continue to rise and fall. However, in April, with the warmer weather, the market demand for large-weight pigs will cool down, some secondary fattening will be released in advance, and pig prices will once again enter a weak adjustment cycle!
Wheat "dives" into soybean meal to cool down, pig prices rise, and oil prices can't fall! What happened? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!