Demand-side analysis: Livestock and poultry breeding, feed production+consumption of household bean products 1. Livestock and poultry breeding, feed production: According to the data of the Ministry of Rural Agriculture, the number of fertile sows nationwide increased by1.7% in February 2020; In poultry breeding, with the stabilization and improvement of COVID-19 epidemic in China, the price of chickens has stopped falling and rebounded, and the enthusiasm of poultry breeding has been high; Domestic feed enterprises have a high recovery rate after returning to work. As the temperature warms, livestock and poultry breeding continues to improve, and the demand for feed is improving, which causes the demand for soybean meal to pick up. In addition, feed enterprises have heard the demand for passive large-volume orders before soybean meal rises.
2. Household bean products consumption: such as homemade soybean milk, outsourced tofu, soybean milk powder, etc., which we are thirsty for every day, are inseparable from soybeans. Moreover, these household consumers are large and widely consumed. Therefore, it will also help push up the price of imported soybeans to a certain extent.
Supply side analysis: domestic soybeans+imported soybeans+domestic soybeans with pneumonia epidemic: According to USDA, the total soybean output in China in 2020 is about18100000 tons. However, our demand is about 1.04 million tons, and the total soybean output in 20 19 is16.95 million tons.
Imported soybeans: According to customs statistics, in 20 18, China imported 88.03 million tons of soybeans, and in 20 19, it imported 91500,000 tons of soybeans, that is, more than 85% of soybean consumption was imported from sources.
3. Pneumonia epidemic: Recently, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out abroad, especially in the United States (according to today's headlines, as of April 8, 387,547 people were diagnosed in the United States; Cumulative diagnosis in Brazil 1383 1 person; Cumulative diagnosis in Argentina 1628 people).
4. Soybean output: According to the USDA forecast, Brazil's soybean output will increase to19/2020, with sufficient supply. However, the epidemic affected the shipment and export shipment delay in the main soybean producing areas. Soybean has made great contributions to animal husbandry and household bean products consumption in our country, but the proportion of domestic soybean production and supply is low and the dependence on imports is high.
The trend of soybeans What we see now is the favorable factors for the increase of soybean prices, including the fact that the epidemic situation is still going on, and although the domestic situation is stable, it is still erupting internationally, which has a certain stimulating effect on the increase of international food prices. At the same time, China imports a lot of soybeans every year, but now soybean imports are really affected and cannot arrive in Hong Kong on time. However, the domestic grass-roots grain has been basically sold out, the supply is relatively tight, and there is not much grain in the hands of farmers.
These news have a certain stimulating effect on soybean prices in our country, so in the short term, soybean prices will continue to rise, and it is unlikely that there will be a sharp decline. Of course, for farmers, if they still have surplus grain in their hands, they should pay close attention to the changing trend of market conditions and seize the opportunity to sell it at the right time. Once the auction rules of the State Reserve are implemented, the price may directly return to a relatively stable state, and there may even be a small correction.