Let's review the miserable garlic market in 2007 and 2008, with the lowest price of 0.4 yuan/kg; It is not only garlic farmers who are hit, but even garlic merchants who have made profits over the years can't escape bad luck. In 2009, the long-lost year of garlic was ushered in. Since May of the first half of 2009, the price of garlic has soared, and even the garlic that is called sky-high in the media has appeared, but it is a huge profit from garlic merchants. Due to the loss of garlic merchants in previous years, the initial purchase price of garlic merchants was not high because of the relationship between output and supply and demand. Therefore, in this round of garlic price increase, garlic merchants have the biggest profit, but garlic farmers have not made great profits from it, at least most garlic farmers have not made great profits. The fundamental reason for the sharp increase in garlic prices in 2009 is the serious imbalance between supply and demand. Among them: (1) Reduced supply 1, reduced planting area Due to the stimulation of garlic price increase in 2006, the garlic planting area in China expanded blindly in 2007 and 2008, which led to a serious oversupply. The purchase price of garlic plummeted to 0.4 yuan/kg, and the wholesale market price once fell to 0. 1-0.2 yuan/kg, which caused heavy losses for garlic farmers and distributors. Many garlic farmers switched to other crops, and in 2009, the national garlic planting area was reduced from12.5 million mu in 2008 to 9 million mu. 2. Yield per unit area was generally reduced by more than 20% due to the injury of garlic to farmers, insufficient investment by garlic farmers, neglect of field management, and natural disasters such as Meiyu. The reduction of planting area, combined with factors such as yield reduction, reduced the national garlic output from10.26 million tons in 2008 to about 5.9 million tons in 2009. (II) Increased consumption 1, A-stream In 2009, there was an epidemic of A-stream in the world, and there was a saying in the society that garlic could prevent A-stream. The consumer groups who ate garlic increased, and the consumer demand increased significantly, which further aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand. 2. Seed consumption In 2009, the price of garlic rose, and both garlic farmers and distributors made good profits, which enhanced the confidence of garlic farmers. The garlic planting area in major garlic producing areas and surrounding areas was expanded. According to preliminary statistics, in 2009-2010, the planting area of garlic season rose from 9 million mu in 2008-2009 to about12 million mu. The newly added planting area of 3 million mu consumed 500,000 tons of garlic. So, what will the garlic market be like in 20 10? It will be influenced by the following aspects: 1, garlic planting area12 million mu in 2009 (folk statistics11500,000 mu), planting area of 9 million mu in 2008 (folk statistics 9.55 million mu), Compared with 2008, the planting area of garlic in 2009 increased by 20-30%. 2. It is a foregone conclusion that the yield per unit area of garlic harvested in 20 10 will be reduced, and the quality decline is also an indisputable fact. The main reason is that the planting time of garlic in 2009 is relatively late, and the cold weather comes early, and the garlic seedlings are frozen before they grow strong. In previous years, 7-9 leaves were harvested, 20/kl. It is estimated that the production will be reduced by about 20%. 3. Although the planting area in 2009 increased by 20-30% compared with that in 2008, the garlic yield reduction in 20 10 can offset the output of the expanded area, and the total garlic harvest in 20 10 is basically the same as that in 2009. In 2009, the garlic stock1026,000 tons (old garlic139,000 tons, new garlic 887,000 tons). 4. It is a fact that the consumption in the international market and the domestic market has increased year by year in recent years. From 2005 to 2009, China's garlic exports were1260,000 tons,1345,900 tons,1435,700 tons and1520,000 tons respectively. Consumption in the domestic market is also increasing. 5. The planting cost increases. 400 kg of garlic per mu needs 600- 1000 yuan; Chemical fertilizer: base fertilizer 300 yuan, spring irrigation fertilizer 80 yuan, total 380 yuan. Plow once in 80 yuan and scratch twice in 60 yuan. Garlic planting: 100 yuan; Water the land: once ***3 times, each time 10 yuan, totaling 30 yuan; Plastic film: 50 yuan. Herbicide: 40 yuan; Garlic planing: removing roots, cutting stems and bagging, * * * 400 yuan; Grade: 50 yuan. With a bag: 20 yuan. Total: 18 10-22 10 yuan. In this way, the cost of garlic in 20 10 years will be more than per catty 1 yuan or 1 yuan. 6. When the new garlic came down in 20 10, there was almost no garlic left. Although the planting area in 2009 has increased, it is not enough to fill the old garlic left in 2008, which is certain. Furthermore, it is inevitable that the garlic price will be higher in 20 10, which will stimulate the secondary garlic area to increase the planting area again and consume some garlic seeds. Deep-processed products of garlic slices, garlic powder and garlic oil need to be produced no matter how expensive the raw materials are. It is impossible not to produce them for two consecutive years and still meet the supply. According to the above analysis, the price of new garlic will reach a new high in 20 10. It is estimated that the new garlic (semi-dried garlic) farmers will sell it to 1.5-2 yuan for a catty, which will be 2-2.50 yuan per catty, and the later purchase price will be 3.00-3.50 yuan. The purchase price does not rule out the possibility of exceeding 3.50 yuan. Therefore, in 20 10, the income of garlic farmers will increase obviously compared with the previous year, and the merchants who store garlic will also make profits.