In June, the pig price can be said to be striding forward in disbelief, with a monthly increase of more than 30%. This round of price increase can also be said to reflect the effect of 202 1 de-capacity. At the same time, the pig price climbed to a new high under the dual role of "tight supply+emotional boost".
According to a farmer in Henan, pig dealers can't catch pigs now because 70% farmers around them quit. Because of the loss of money last year and the epidemic, the price of pigs has now reached 10 yuan/kg, and many farmers have not come back from working outside. Everyone thought that the price of pigs could go up, but I didn't expect it to go up so much. In the final analysis, it is caused by the lack of pigs.
In areas with large aquaculture scale, the efforts of retail investors to remove chemicals are more prominent.
Relatively speaking, the degree and time of decontamination in the north is earlier than that in the south. Judging from the feedback from some free-range households, the decontamination efforts of surrounding sows have reached more than 30, and the free-range households have reached more than 20%.
In the final analysis, free-range farmers still have little money, or there is a shortage of first-line pigs, which has caused the average price of live pigs in China to bottom out in the second quarter, rising from 12.34 yuan/kg to 20.28 yuan/kg, an increase of 64%, exceeding 10 yuan/kg in many places, and even reporting165433 in some areas of Guangdong.
At the same time, most people in the industry also said that the pig price of 10 yuan/kg has reached the psychological expectation. Although the pig price is bullish in the afternoon, it will not rise sharply again, and most people in the industry think that there is limited room for growth.
As we all know, the current factors supporting the rise of pig prices are not the sharp rise and boost of consumers, but the push of many artificial emotions such as tight pig slaughter cycle, active suppression of breeding, and secondary fattening.
Undeniably, the pig price has reached the mark of "10 yuan", and the consumer market is still depressed and the weather is hot. In summer, the pork consumption market has been depressed, the homogenization of white strip products is serious, and the gross profit is extremely low. At present, the terminal passively accepts. In the next few days, schools, colleges and universities will have holidays one after another. In many markets, the mainstream wholesale price of white bars is 24 ~ 26 yuan/kg, but there are many leftover goods, and the overall delivery situation is poor.
After the first few days of this month, the output of the farm will gradually increase and it is expected to be sold on rallies. Don't blindly hold down files and be reluctant to sell, but respond flexibly according to the actual situation of pig farms.
However, with the development of the scale trend of domestic aquaculture, the concentration is getting higher and higher, and the large-scale group pig enterprises have a strong right to speak, which makes some slaughtering enterprises helpless and even some small slaughterhouses forced to close down.
At present, the controlling performance of large-scale pig enterprises is more prominent, the right to speak of slaughter enterprises is sidelined, and the focus of pig price is still strong. It is expected that there will be no possibility of a "sharp drop" in short-term pig prices. Due to the limited overall slaughter scale of pigs in July, the pig price may show a "slightly strong shock" trend.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0 to 13, accounting for 50% of all monitored areas. The lowest average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is 10.07 yuan/kg, the highest is 10.40 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs is 65,440 yuan/kg.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises has risen again, the bidding difficulty of enterprises has obviously increased, the market sentiment has improved again, and the bullish sentiment has obviously increased.
In northern China, the price of white pigs in slaughter enterprises has shown a certain upward trend, and the supply performance in slaughterhouses is not great. The price of white pigs in some enterprises rose by 500 yuan/ton.
The pig price of breeding group has risen steadily, and the pig price of breeding group in southwest and south China has stabilized. The bidding enthusiasm of breeding groups in Northeast China, North China and Northwest China is high, and the bidding results are rising.
The number of live pigs on the leading group bidding platform has increased or decreased, and the overall number has shrunk. At the beginning of the month, the shrinkage effect is obvious, the increase of transaction price is enlarged, the enthusiasm of traders for bidding is improved, the bidding phenomenon is enhanced, and the failure of low-price bidding is highlighted.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a "large-scale rise" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome everyone to exchange views on the hog market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and tomorrow will be more exciting. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will rise again.