But at this time, wheat first can not hold out, opened the second decline. And from the point of view of the decline, the momentum is a bit fierce, almost all green.
Before we have worried about, wheat's round of decline than the previous round of a little "more bad luck".
First of all, demand, there is no weakest, only weaker.
Weak to what extent?
Flour enterprises not only no profit, some are still shipping at a loss.
On the one hand, the year before the purchase of wheat prices are above 1.6-1.65 yuan / kg, and after the year flour has been sluggish demand, flour enterprises in order to reduce the inventory, can only reduce the price of shipments; and on the other hand, as a feed to add gluten is also poor, coupled with the recent soybean meal prices continue to pull back, the current has fallen below the 4,000 yuan / ton mark, which makes the demand for gluten is even weaker. The current price of bran compared to a year ago has fallen 200 yuan / ton.
Flour and bran both fell, but many flour enterprises in order to maintain customers, to avoid the loss of customers, is still struggling to start production, in this case, the enterprise's willingness to purchase can be said to have fallen to the freezing point.
Secondly, the market's bearish sentiment is soaring as new wheat comes closer and closer to market.
In the first round of wheat decline, the market wait-and-see mood is still strong, wheat from 1.6 yuan/catty above the location of the fall, who do not dare to big price pressure, after all, in the past two years, wheat fell 1.6 yuan/catty period is not too long. So, although wheat fell, but the market is still mainly wait-and-see.
Later with some enterprises to open replenishment, as well as policy auction prices in line with the market, so that wheat began to stabilize. But after the end of the restocking, demand support is weak, wheat opened the second round of decline.
And this time the market bearish mood rose, coupled with the new wheat listing time is getting closer and closer, do not rule out the follow-up may appear "the more down the more sold" situation, making the wheat price further down.
Third, the policy put continuously, the price frequently fall.
Originally, the demand was sluggish, but the recent reserve wheat at all levels is still continuing to put, and some areas of the put there are signs of an increase, so that the auction increased, the transaction price also fell, which also exacerbated the panic in the market.
Wheat prices have plummeted, why put still continue?
This may be related to two factors:
One is that the quality of old wheat grain source is general, does not have the conditions and basis for long-term preservation; the second is the recent increase in rain and snow in the north, the air humidity increases, the stock of wheat moisture risk increases, so some of the reserves increase the pace of wheat rotation, resulting in the supply of wheat supply is strong and weak is more loose.
So, wheat prices again down.
And from the price point of view, the current wheat prices have been stabilized than before when the center of gravity shifted down, the current mainstream producing areas of wheat prices have fallen from the previous range of 1.55-1.58 yuan / catty 1.54-1.57 yuan / catty, and is still continuing to dip.
This does not ban the market more worried, according to such a fall, wheat will not fall below 1.5 yuan / catty?
In the new agricultural watch, at least for the time being, the probability is not large.
One is the current wheat supply continues to zoom, bearish sentiment rose, mainly is the policy grain source put continued to cause, but the policy grain source will not always put, with the subsequent put gradually stop, the wheat market will also come back to life.
The second is as a mutual support and restriction of wheat and corn, although the recent difficult upward trend, but also difficult to fall, so in the case of stabilization of corn, the bottom of the wheat support will be revealed, will limit the downward space of wheat.
Third, although the distance from the new wheat market is getting closer and closer, but now just in March, the earliest new wheat market how to May, and pre-listed wheat prices and quality are often unstable, which means that the market has time to adjust.
So although the center of gravity of wheat prices may be further down, but the probability of falling below 1.5 yuan / catty is not large, is expected to be the low point in the location of 1.52-1.53 yuan / catty probability.
Conclusion
Probably no one expected that the first market panic this year was wheat, with the wheat market continues to fluctuate, what will be the new wheat market this year? Welcome to pay attention to the new agricultural view, we will continue to analyze in the subsequent articles.