However, although the price of pigs has dropped and the price of soybean meal has also dropped, the price of feed is still rising to a "historical high", which is not good for farmers and the consumer market. ......
The price of pigs has dropped, but it is still too high. According to People's Daily Online, on June 165438+ 10/6, Meng Wei, deputy director and spokesperson of the Political Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out at the regular press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission in June 165438+ 10. On the whole,
From the market point of view, the pig price fell again at 16 after a slight increase of three days, which was 4-5 yuan/kg lower than the previous high; However, many farmers have accepted the market that "the pig price can never return to the high point of 10", and the pace of slaughter has generally accelerated.
In fact, since the rapid rise of pig prices in June, pork prices have been rising all the way, rising by 5 1.8% year-on-year in June, making consumers call it "too expensive", and even CPI is deeply affected by pork prices! Under this circumstance, the state continuously put in 7 batches of reserve pork, especially in September, the total amount of reserve pork put in the country was as high as 200,000 tons, the highest level in a single month, and the price of reserve pork was much lower than the market price!
The country's active regulation and control, coupled with the rapid increase in the supply of pigs, the price of pigs began to drop significantly!
However, Meng Wei said that in the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will closely collect the dynamics of the live pig market, continue to choose the opportunity to put in the central pork reserve, and further intensify efforts when necessary to guide all localities to put in local reserves simultaneously.
At the same time, we will continue to strengthen market supervision with relevant departments, maintain normal market order, and promote the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
This passage released two important signals-
First, the current pig price of 24-25 yuan/kg is still not a "reasonable price"!
Second, measures to control pig prices may continue!
These two signals are related to all pig farmers. After all, it is related to the future direction of pig price regulation! According to the data held by Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the average profit of live pigs is still around 800 yuan-1000 yuan, which is at an all-time high, and the possibility of further regulation is great!
Although the current pig price is indeed a relatively high level in history, second only to the wave of "profiteering market" after the plague, we must also see that the current feed price is "occupied" at a high level and refuses to loosen at all!
The reason why it is "occupied" is because raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have risen, and the feed factory immediately announced the price increase! But on the other hand, when the price of feed raw materials finally fell, the price of feed was "like a mountain", and some feed factories even raised prices instead!
Recently, according to the statistics of feed industry information network, the mainstream average price of soybean meal in June 1 14 was 5540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; 165438+1October15th, the mainstream price of soybean meal continued to fall by 40 yuan/ton; 165438+1October16th, the mainstream price of soybean meal continued to fall, with a drop of 75 yuan/ton!
In other words, in just three days, the total price of soybean meal has dropped by more than 200 yuan/ton! And with the price reduction of soybean meal, the protein powder such as cotton and rapeseed meal, which are the main raw materials, has also fallen, with a drop of 50- 100 yuan/ton.
But did the feed go down with it? There is no sign of trouble.
Some people may say, just fell to 200 yuan, only three days. Even if feed mills want to reduce prices, there will be a transmission process.
But this is not the case. Even if the decline of soybean meal increases, the feed price is hard to loosen!
Historical data show that the price of soybean meal was 50 13 yuan/ton on March 30th this year, and then it began to fall for more than three months, until it fell to 4,063 yuan/ton on July 10, and soybean meal almost fell 1000 yuan/ton!
But has the feed price dropped? The data shows that the decline is a decline, but the decline is completely negligible! Under that round of fluctuation, the feed price only dropped from the highest point of 3880 yuan/ton to 3860 yuan/ton! The decline is only 20 yuan/ton!
And this round of decline time is only from July 13 to August 10, and then the feed price began to "triumph" all the way, until now it has risen to 4090 yuan/ton, and it is rising to a record high almost every week!
So, can the feed price come down? When should we "occupy a high position"?
For farmers, the excessive rise in feed prices is a hidden crisis. In the future, with the recovery of production capacity, the pig price will inevitably fall further, and the feed price is at a high level, refusing to fall back. At that time, the scissors difference of "high cost+low pig price" will cut off the profit of pigs, and even many farmers will fall into losses!
For the feed industry, there are hidden dangers in price increases! According to the statistics of China Feed Industry Association, the national feed output in June 5438+ 10 was 26.72 million tons, down 5.7% from the previous month and up 0.2% from the same period last year.
From June 5438+0 to June 5438+00, the national feed output was 243 million tons, down 0.48% from last year.
Consumers will resist high-priced pork, and farmers will inevitably resist high-priced feed.
Don't say that pigs can eat without food. If you search online, you will find that many farmers start to feed pigs with strange things, including tea residue, distiller's grains and even "pig grass"; From the change of feed output in June+10 in 5438, we can also find clues. From September to June, 5438+ 10, the pig production capacity gradually recovered, but why did the feed output decrease month by month? The reason must be vigilant.
In addition, from a deeper level, the feeding cost is also directly related to the development speed of aquaculture, the supply stability of meat, eggs and milk and the price trend.
Feeding costs are related to people's livelihood. As the saying goes, "pigs are cheap and hurt farmers, and pigs are expensive and hurt people", the sharp fluctuation of pig prices is not good for consumers, but when farmers constantly "build new production capacity and eliminate production capacity" during the fluctuation of pig cycle, it also causes a waste of breeding resources.
So, what is the biggest factor affecting the pig cycle?
On the surface, it is a pig price, but in fact it is a cost! Judging from the previous pig cycle, whether because of the outbreak of blue ear disease, the ravages of non-plague, or other factors, the pig farm withdrew, the inferior production capacity was quickly eliminated in a short time, and the breeding cost increased!
Today, when biosafety is widely popularized, the biggest difference between "superior and inferior productivity" is "breeding cost".
In fact, only when the cost is getting lower and lower, the fluctuation of the pig cycle will become more and more gentle, because this means that the ability of the aquaculture industry to accept the impact of the low pig price will be enhanced!
For example, pork in our market now sells for about 20 yuan/kg, but pork imported from Europe and America is only 12 yuan/kg. If pork imports are liberalized, domestic farmers will have no advantage at all! Then why is foreign pork so cheap? It is that people's breeding costs are extremely low!
Therefore, the feeding cost is not "irrelevant" to the pig price. Feeding cost determines the highest and lowest point of pig price from the source by affecting the fluctuation range of pig cycle!
As we all know, feed cost accounts for more than 60% of the whole feeding cost, and it can even account for 70-80% with the increase of feed price! It can be seen that the feed market cannot be regarded as a very simple "market economy", but a "people's livelihood economy".
Therefore, it is impossible for feed to go up all the way. The industry must speed up the popularization of "low soybean meal diet", and feed enterprises should not be "satisfied with the status quo" because they still have money to earn.
You know, many times, it may not be your opponent who suddenly eliminated you ... once the change comes, the feed mills that are unwilling to make progress are also in jeopardy.