Yellow peaches mature in summer and autumn exchanges and will be listed in large quantities in various places in August.

In recent years, yellow peach has become the "Huang Jinshu" of poverty alleviation projects, and it is reported that the planting area is expanding day by day.

The "Securities Daily" reporter learned that the deep-processed products at the back end of the yellow peach industry chain are small in scale and few in variety, which cannot effectively adjust the supply peak and supply-demand mismatch brought about by the centralized listing of yellow peaches.

Some analysts said that if the industrial chain of yellow peach can be fully developed, leading enterprises should attach great importance to the economic value of yellow peach and give play to their own advantages in R&D, design, production and logistics.

Yellow peaches are listed centrally.

What is the solution to the peak supply?

Yellow peach is sweet, sour and delicious, which is widely welcomed by consumers and has become the "Huang Jinshu" for farmers in mountainous areas to get rid of poverty and become rich.

According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, in Hunan alone, yellow peaches are planted in pieces in Yanling, Mayang, Hengyang, Ningxiang, Shuangfeng and Jianghua to help farmers. These areas are also equipped with services such as seedling raising, planting, logistics and e-commerce.

At the end of July, in order to promote the local sales of yellow peaches to achieve good results, the above-mentioned areas also held brand promotion meetings, rural harvest festivals, farmers' experience garden parties, live broadcasts of goods by online celebrities and other activities.

According to the statistics released by Yanling County, in recent years, the poverty alleviation of yellow peaches has achieved initial results, with a planting area of 96,000 mu. It is estimated that the output of yellow peach will increase by 20% year-on-year, and the fruit setting rate of high-quality goods is expected to reach over 90%.

The centralized listing period of yellow peaches is approaching, and relay watermelons and grapes have become "new treasures" to cool off the heat.

The data shows that since the 30th week (from July 24th to July 30th), the Yellow Peach Hot Search Index has hit a new high for several weeks in a row, occupying the position of "dominating the list" and becoming the favorite of consumers everywhere.

In this regard, analyst Li Binbin said, "Not only Hunan, but also Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangxi and other places have also listed. Combined with the logistics express channel, it has brought tangible economic benefits to farmers and tangible benefits to consumers. It is expected that the hot search index of yellow peach will still dominate the list for a long time.

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However, yellow peach is a seasonal fresh fruit, which has a short centralized market period, short shelf life and is not durable.

Take the splendid yellow peach widely planted by farmers everywhere as an example. July is the first fruit market period, and August to September is the centralized market period. Since then, the fruit yield has declined rapidly, and there is no fruit in 65438+ 10, showing an obvious "supply peak" phenomenon.

The big data platform also shows that the price of yellow peach fluctuates violently with the arrival and departure of the "supply peak", and the trend is reflected in an obvious bell curve.

July-September is a high price range, indicating that fresh fruit is popular, supply and demand are booming, and prices are rising; 10 to June of the following year is a low price range, which is characterized by slow sales in Chen Guo, weak supply and demand, and falling prices.

Take the published price data of yellow peach from 202 1 to 1 to July 2022 as an example, the low price is only 3.2 yuan/kg, which is less than half of the high price 7.5 yuan/kg.

Canned products are single.

The downstream industrial chain needs to be enriched.

After the "supply peak" of yellow peach, where will Chen Guo go? In this regard, Li Binbin said, "More than 90% of Chen Guo went to canneries, and a small amount went to other food factories to make dried fruits and beverage additives.

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The reporter found out that canned peaches are the main products except fresh peaches on e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD.COM and Taobao, involving nearly 30 related companies, among which there are many snacks listed companies.

Processed products with slightly higher added value, such as dried peach fruit, yellow peach milk and yellow peach egg tart, are scattered among them.

According to the statistics released by Zhiyan Consulting, since 20 17 years, the output of domestic canneries above designated size has been declining year-on-year. From 20 17 to 202 1, the canned production decreased from 13 1400 tons to 8.32 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 36.68%.

In 202210-June, the output of canned food production enterprises above designated size in China was 3.325 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year.

According to the survey data, there are nearly 49,000 canned food-related enterprises in China. In terms of registered capital, 69% of affiliated enterprises have registered capital of less than 6,543,800 yuan.

Because the canned food production process is simple, the threshold is low, homogenization competition and price war lead to thin profits of small and micro processing enterprises, so it is difficult to accumulate capital at a higher level and unable to absorb the impact of rising costs. Domestic A-share enterprises also take the initiative to raise prices in the off-season of canned yellow peaches.

Li Binbin said, "The back end of the yellow peach industrial chain is relatively weak.

Canned products are too single, and the scale inventory is declining day by day, which can not absorb the' supply peak' brought by the centralized listing of yellow peaches, nor can it solve the mismatch between supply and demand after the' supply peak'.

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Professor Cao, deputy dean of the School of Economics and Business of Hunan University, agrees with the above view. "Canned exports do contribute to earning foreign exchange and promoting employment, but the income of domestic consumers has increased and the demand has become diversified and healthy. It is difficult for the canning industry to iron out the' supply peak' and solve the mismatch between supply and demand.

To play the leading role of large downstream deep processing enterprises, we can do some in-depth research and demonstration in the fields of dried fruits, preserves, cakes, beverages, biological extracts, etc., and extend and enrich the yellow peach industrial chain downstream.

The higher the development level of the back end of the yellow peach industrial chain, the more stable the basic needs of the yellow peach society, the greater the confidence of farmers in increasing production and planting, and the better the effect of yellow peach in helping the poor agriculture.

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(Editor Shangguan Menglu)