At present, the price of green onions has reached the highest level in the past four years, and the price of ginger has reached the highest level in the past six years. ? Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and associate researcher of the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said.
Zhang Jing believes that the reason for the recent sharp increase in the price of onions and ginger is mainly on the supply side.
On the one hand, the reduction of comparative benefits leads to a sharp decline in the planting area of onion and ginger.
Years ago, the wholesale price of scallion in China dropped significantly, which was lower than the cost line per kilogram of 3 yuan in most periods. Coupled with the warmer winter in 20 19, scallion grew well and the yield was high, which led to oversupply, depressed prices of producing areas, decreased farmers' planting enthusiasm, and the planting area was adjusted back. According to the estimation of Shandong Zhuochuang Information, the planting area of green onions will decrease 15% in 2020 compared with the previous year? 20%, the supply is tight, and prices naturally rise.
So is ginger. Ginger is produced in season and supplied all year round. The ginger sold in the market before 10 every year is basically stored in the previous year. After the national ginger price dropped rapidly from the high level in the fourth quarter of 20 17, it kept a low level for a long time, and the income of farmers from planting ginger decreased, resulting in a decrease in planting area of about 10% and a sharp drop in output in 20 19, which led to a tight overall market supply and a significant increase in prices this year.
On the other hand, too much precipitation leads to a decline in the yield of green onions and ginger.
The producing areas of Chinese green onions and ginger are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu and other provinces. This July? In August, the main producing areas of Anqiu, Pingdu and Qingzhou in Shandong, and Jiangxi and Anhui in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River all experienced continuous heavy precipitation. The root system of Welsh onion is weak, and the root system will rot after waterlogging for more than 5 hours. It is estimated that the flood weather this year will reduce the yield of Welsh onion by about 30%. In addition, in some areas, due to the influence of rainfall, the soil was cultivated late, and the green onions that should have been listed at the beginning of 1 1 month were delayed by about 15 days. In terms of ginger production, the main producing areas in northern China were severely affected by typhoons and floods in 20 19, and this year also had some adverse effects. Rainy weather often aggravated ginger blast, which harmed underground rhizomes, roots, stems and leaves of ginger, resulting in a lower yield per unit area in recent two years than in previous years.
For the market outlook, Shen Chen, an analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that the supply of green onions will continue to be tight and prices will run at a high level; After a large number of fresh ginger are listed, the price may fall back.
Shen Chen told reporters that the supply of green onions in autumn and winter is generally in accordance with? Shandong? Jiangsu and Shanghai? Zhejiang? Fujian? In order to ensure the supply of goods, wholesalers usually buy out green onions in the field 1-2 months in advance, and the buyout price has increased by more than 10,000 yuan this year 10, and even doubled in Qidong, Jiangsu and Zhangpu, Fujian, hitting a new high in nearly four years. It is expected that the overall price of green onions will remain at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the price may fall after the listing of Shandong green onions in June next year.
The trend of ginger price may be the opposite. According to Shandong Zhuochuang Information Research, the planting area of ginger in China this year is about 10% higher than that in 20 19. During the growing period, the weather in the northern producing areas is mainly sunny and rainy, and the impact of the disaster in the southern producing areas is weaker than that in the previous year. It is estimated that the total output will increase by about 20% compared with the previous year. Since the middle of 1 1 this year, the trading of old ginger in stock in Shandong production areas has come to an end, and the listing of fresh ginger in Hebei and Shandong has gradually increased, and the mining of fresh ginger in the south has entered the later stage. It is expected that the price of ginger will fall with the increase of fresh ginger listing.
In view of the distinctive characteristics of small vegetables such as onion, ginger and garlic, such as concentrated origin, stock sales, strong periodicity and large price fluctuation, the two experts suggested that the relevant departments strengthen market monitoring, analysis and early warning, actively promote policy-based agricultural insurance, and vigorously develop processing and storage to stabilize prices and reduce market risks. Source: Economic Daily?