There is no market for corn spot, and there is no market for futures. Futures and spot are closely related.
Now every ton of grain in Heilongjiang is transported to the port, earning 50~60 yuan, and there are more than 200 cars a day. At the same time, there is no loading plan in the next few days, and the port price begins to "drift". Can the price of 2800 yuan in Northeast Port still be kicked down? No, why not? Because of the balance of quantity and price, it is stacked to make inventory for future shipment date.
# Corn #
You want to deliver the goods, but you don't have that ability. Why? Because the freight has gone up.
Can the port raise prices these days? Now the price-raising futures have the final say, and capital operation is the biggest force.
The grass-roots level in the producing area is a little bit hungry for grain, and grain merchants have begun to have the will to hoard grain again, but they just don't know if the grabbed grain can be profitable.
Hello, farmers. Today is February 23rd, 2023, and farmers are starting to earn their own living again. The whole network said that the price has increased. Where has it increased? Now grain merchants have made a profit of 20 yuan to buy grain, and they have spent a lot of effort to grab grain. Catch your ghost!
The main reason is that the corn market in 2023 is not suitable for destocking, because the inventory can only be carried out in two markets. One is that the general trend is bullish, and there must be contradictions in the later period. The other is that there will be an upward market in the short term or after a long-term decline.
In the first half of 2023, there was no sharp rise or fall in corn, and there was no big contradiction in the later period, so it was either unprofitable or uncomfortable to build inventory at this time.
The large-scale decline of corn in North China has led traders in many areas to start hoarding grain one after another. The purchase price of corn grains has reached 1.4 yuan/kg, and the purchase price of coarse grains is about 1.36 ~ 1.37 yuan/kg, which is basically close to 1.4 yuan/kg.
It is uncomfortable for grain merchants not to accept it, and it is even more uncomfortable to accept it. Why? Can't sell it.
In this case, if farmers don't have storage conditions, corn will lose water very quickly with the increase of temperature, and your grain is slowly losing weight.
Therefore, for farmers, it is necessary to choose the timing of selling grain.
Otherwise, the price of corn will rise, and your deficit will be larger than the rising price.
This is Bian Xiao's personal suggestion. You can decide whether to sell or not.
Now everyone thinks that the price of corn behind North China will fall and will not rise sharply in the short term.
As a result, grain merchants began to choose the right time to collect grain, because they thought that there was room for high-quality corn to rise in the later stage, and these high-quality grain could be sold to feed enterprises or grain reserves.
Nearly 40% of the grain in North China has not entered the channel inventory, and 60-70% of the grain in very few areas has not been sold. In this case, it is basically unrealistic for corn to rise sharply in the short term.
The price of coarse grains purchased by grain merchants in some areas of Shandong is 1.35~ 1.37 yuan/kg, and they are badly robbed. There is no profit in selling dry food, and 3 cents is deducted from impurities, which is not low in cost and high in moisture, which is not conducive to long-term storage.
At the same time, the suppression of wheat prices will also make it impossible for corn prices in North China to rise sharply in the short term. If the price of corn rises to the price parallel to that of wheat, then feed enterprises will rush to harvest wheat at the first time.
The latest corn price in China on February 23, 2023
Shandong Zoucheng citizen energy: 1.445 yuan/kg, down 2%.
Shandong Hengren Industry and Trade: 1.44 yuan/kg, down 5%.
Tian Fei starch: 1.433 yuan/kg, down 5%.
Yuan Bo of Jinhe River in Rizhao, Shandong: 1.47 yuan/kg, down 5%.
Shandong Yishui Youth Aid: 1.43 yuan/kg, down 5%.
Shandong Yucheng Baolingbao: 1.4 12 yuan/kg, down 3%.
Directly under Harbin: over 660 unit weight 1.39 yuan/kg.
The corn purchased by "Tongying" in Heilongjiang Farm has basically not been sold. In the autumn of 2022, the acquisition cost reached 2,600 yuan/ton, precisely because of the high farm price. However, these grains have been stored in the warehouse for 4~5 months from the year before, and the interest is relatively low, but the cost has also increased by 40~50 yuan/ton, which means that the cost of these grains has reached.
If the freight from 350 yuan is shipped to Shandong, it will have reached 3000 yuan/ton.
If it is shipped to the port, the price is not satisfactory, and there are still about 65,438+10,000 tons of corn in Baoquanling area that have not entered the market. If it is placed in the second half of the year, the cost is directly 2700 yuan/ton.
-This is ridiculous. As the saying goes, "losing your wife and losing your soldiers" can't be played.
Therefore, the farmers in Heilongjiang must thank the farm for setting up a corn market to make the corn price soar, otherwise the corn in Heilongjiang can't be the same as that in Jilin, and the price can't be the same as that in the port. However, everyone is still dissatisfied and thinks that the price of corn should be raised. The price is too low. Two years ago, vendors said that "the human heart is insufficient, and the snake swallows the elephant". Now it is no exaggeration to describe farmers.
Everyone in the network is full of confidence in the price of land and corn, but in real life, everyone is shivering and worried that the price will be too low in autumn 2023, which will affect income. Therefore, the statement in the network is "completely opposite" to the reality, which also shows the duality and illusion of people in the network. It is precisely because of this that the cultivation of genetically modified corn has been advocated since this year.
Genetically modified corn will certainly blossom in the next few years, and the short-term market will not change much, but it will have an impact on farmers.
If you plant transgenic plants first, the seed quality will be good, and there will definitely be some advantages in yield, especially for large-scale planting of transgenic corn.
Therefore, even if the price is lower and a balance is found in the order of magnitude, planting corn will not suffer.