Flour prices rose with the second upward movement of wheat prices.
Although the domestic pig price continues to decline, the decline of pork price is not obvious, and the current pork price is still at a relatively high level.
The price of eggs has dropped from around 7 yuan to around 6 yuan.
The price of edible oil has risen because of the decline in the amount of imported soybeans in Hong Kong before, but with the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, the price of edible oil has begun to fall.
Will the prices of rice, noodles, meat, eggs and oil be reduced in1February?
Rice prices are weak and fear to fall back.
From 10 to now, the national rice price has ushered in a "rare" strong operation, in which long-grain japonica rice in the north rose by 0. 1 yuan/kg, indica rice in the south rose steadily, and yellow flowers accounted for 1.50 yuan/kg.
However, after entering1February, rice prices may face the risk of falling back. The logic is as follows:
1, long-grain rice rose rapidly in the previous two months, rice processing was upside down, and the cost of enterprises was too high.
2. Some enterprises have low cost of opening rice positions in the early stage. In order to seize the market in1February, they may introduce low-priced rice to maintain market competitiveness.
3. Affected by the weather and the decline of planting area, the price of glutinous rice continued to rise some time ago, and some rice enterprises even raised it by 0.05-0. 1 yuan every day, but the downstream acceptance of high-priced glutinous rice was limited, and it was reported that the demand for glutinous rice in food factories decreased by 50% this year compared with the same period of last year. Considering the price of raw grain, it is unlikely that the price of glutinous rice will drop sharply, but it is difficult to continue to rise.
4. When the prices of japonica rice and glutinous rice rise, the indica rice will only be followed by a narrow upward adjustment, and then the prices of these two kinds of rice will go down, and the indica rice will probably follow the price reduction.
5. The amount of imported rice reached a new high.
Face prices continue to run at a high level, making it difficult to reduce prices.
1 1 month, the price of flour rises with the second increase of wheat price. At present, the highest price of wheat from Shandong flour milling enterprises is 1.66 yuan, and that from Hubei flour milling enterprises is 1.665 yuan. The prices of some high-quality and scarce varieties of wheat are basically close to 1.7 yuan.
It is understood that flour milling enterprises have started to lower the price of wheat recently, which is a market signal.
In the face of the current high wheat price, the terminal flour is generally in a downturn, and the cost pressure of wheat in enterprises is too great, so the wheat price has to be lowered. However, there are still many favorable factors in the current wheat price on the market:
1, corn prices continue to rise, supporting wheat prices to remain high.
2. After entering1February, the demand for terminal flour is expected to recover.
3. With the consumption of surplus grain in the market, there is not much surplus grain in the hands of grass-roots farmers, and a large number of farmers who have not sold grain either keep it for their own consumption or plan to sell it again next year, which will affect the market volume of wheat in1February.
Under the support of the above factors, the wheat price is expected to continue to run at a high level in1February, so it is naturally difficult to reduce the price of flour.
The price of meat is expected to fall further.
1 1 Up to now, the average price of live pigs in the market has dropped from 13.34 yuan/kg to1.5 yuan/kg, down by 1.84 yuan, and the decline rate has reached1.
However, the price of pork dropped from 35.43 yuan/kg to 33.23 yuan/kg, down by 2.2 yuan/kg or 6.2%.
The decline in the price of pigs is obviously greater than that of pork, which is also an important reason why the author expects the price of pork to fall further in1February.
Because the trend of pork price lags behind the trend of pig price, that is to say, the current decline rate of pig price has not been completely transmitted to the pork side, and the part that has not been transmitted is likely to continue to1February, that is to say, even if the pig price does not continue to fall, there is room for further decline in1February.
What's more,1February, the price of pigs may drop to a certain extent.
Many people think that1February is not only good for processing bacon and sausages, but also good for consumption after the temperature drops. In addition, holidays such as Christmas and New Year's Day will also stimulate consumption to a certain extent, which will be supported by consumers. Pig prices have the power to rebound.
But please don't forget the following four points:
1, the number of fertile sows in China is above the normal number.
2. There is still a part of big fat in the market that has not been consumed, which supports the current slaughter of pigs, that is, the supply of pork.
3. The recovery of consumption may be less than expected, which is affected by the epidemic and the income of residents.
4. Although the central reserve meat has not moved recently, the local reserve meat continues to be put in.
On the whole, affected by the above negative factors, there is indeed room for the price of pigs to fall, and there is no reason why the price of pigs should not fall.
There is a high probability that the price of eggs will fall
In recent days, the overall price of eggs has been relatively stable. The price of eggs in loose baskets has stabilized at 5.4-5.6 yuan, and the price of eggs in cartons has stabilized at 5.5-5.6 yuan/kg.
However, this high probability is only a short-term stability. After entering1February, the egg price will have a high probability of falling.
It is expected to fall by 0.2-0.3 yuan, when the retail price of eggs is expected to drop from 6 yuan level to 5 yuan level.
1, affected by the improvement of egg market in the second half of the year, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the column has increased, and the productivity of laying hens has improved to a certain extent.
2, the egg market is good, and some laying hens have eliminated chickens and continued to "serve".
3. The terminal catering consumption is sluggish, and the deep processing enterprises also have a sluggish egg purchase due to the slow delivery of products.
4. Some time ago, traders and grassroots consumers hoarded eggs and overdrafted the follow-up demand.
5. Winter is the traditional off-season of egg consumption.
Edible oil is expected to weaken, easy to fall and difficult to rise.
Some time ago, the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil increased due to the decline in the quantity of imported soybeans, which in turn led to the price increase of domestic peanut oil and rapeseed oil. Recently, the price of soybean meal has dropped, and the price of peanut oil has also declined to some extent. According to statistics, the average price of domestic peanut oil last week was 17844 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous month, and the market price of rapeseed oil also showed a decline.
For the edible oil market in1February, it is expected that the downward trend will continue.
In terms of rapeseed oil, the subsequent import of rapeseed to Hong Kong has increased, the domestic rapeseed inventory has further increased, and the increase in rapeseed oil supply will be cashed in one after another and enter the market.
Moreover, affected by the epidemic, the catering industry is in a downturn, and the follow-up consumption of rapeseed oil is also expected to weaken.
In terms of peanut oil, although the volume of goods at the grass-roots level remains low due to the influence of transportation, most traders are willing to clear the warehouse, and the supply side of peanuts is not tight.
However, the demand side of peanut oil continues to be sluggish, and traders are generally in a wait-and-see state. The purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the catering industry is sluggish. The price of peanut oil is easy to fall and difficult to rise.