The change of corn price depends on two most important factors, one is the supply and demand of the industry itself, and the other is some relevant policies of the state on the industry. The market has changed from policy-led to policy regulation, and the area of non-dominant corn seeds has been reduced through supply-side reform; At the same time, the restrictions on foreign investment in some industries will be abolished, and the corn deep processing industry will be vigorously developed.
In 20 19, the market will usher in the auction of temporary stored grain, the import of corn and its substitutes, and the fermentation of classical swine fever, which will bring new influence to the market trend in different time periods. Considering that there are still many uncertain factors in the future, it seems not advisable to look too much or bearish on the market. Before the lack of sufficient means of risk control and value preservation, it is a good operational idea to seize the opportunity to enter the market in time and make timely profits.
Trend chart of national average corn price in 20 15-20 18 years.
Comparison of Corn Price Trend between Production and Marketing in 20 15-20 18
Production area: the area has decreased year after year, and the yield has increased.
According to the latest statistics from the State Grain Administration, the corn planting area in China was 42,399 thousand hectares in 20 17, a decrease of 4.03% compared with the previous year. The output decreased from 2636 1 10,000 tons in the previous 20 16 years to 259.07 million tons this year, a decrease of 4.54 million tons and a decrease of 1.72%.
Changes of corn planting area and yield in China from 20/2007 to 0/8.
After implementing the purchasing and storage policy for nearly 10 years, China has nearly 200 million tons of corn stocks, which is equivalent to the consumption of about 1 year. The huge inventory prompted the government to take a number of measures to reduce the inventory level, including reducing corn planting area, reducing corn planting subsidies, increasing soybean planting subsidies and so on.
In order to better optimize the industrial structure and make up for the shortcomings of China's weak soybean production level, China has planned to readjust the planting structure of soybeans and corn in 20 18. The key plan is to change and revise the proportion of corn and soybean planting in Northeast China. In view of the Sino-US trade friction, Chinese farmers have begun to plan for spring sowing, and the income from corn planting in 20 17 has really stimulated farmers' enthusiasm, and the publication time of relevant plans and requirements lags behind slightly, and the revision effect was not enough in 20 18. With the introduction of China's soybean and corn subsidy policy in 20 18, the soybean subsidy in Heilongjiang province rose to 320 yuan/mu, while the corn subsidy was only 25 yuan/mu. At this level, the income from planting soybeans and corn may be equal.
If this subsidy policy is still implemented in 20 19, the corn planting area will be reduced to some extent in 20 19, and millions or even ten million mu of corn planting area in Heilongjiang may be adjusted to soybean area. According to the corn data of National Bureau of Statistics in 20 18, the corn production area is estimated to be 632 million mu. It is conservatively predicted that the corn area in China will be above 620 million mu in 20 19, and the output will be reduced by 3 million to 5 million tons.
Take a look at the existing variables: First, if the sales situation of new corn in Northeast China is still poor before and after the Spring Festival, the price can not be improved into effective income, the farmers' psychology will be further frustrated, and the enthusiasm for choosing to plant soybeans will increase in 20 19, resulting in further shrinking of the corn area; Second, before the spring sowing, the Sino-US trade relationship showed a substantial turning point and a significant positive, and the Sino-US soybean trade relationship returned to its original state, or caused China to temporarily relax the regulation of soybean planting pattern in a short period of time and correspondingly reduce the level of soybean subsidies, so growers had to carefully consider the relationship between soybean and corn planting income. There may also be some weather factors. On the whole, the probability of the first possibility seems to be higher.
Demand side: deep processing increases and the gap widens.
In recent years, due to the vigorous development of feed consumption and corn deep processing industry in China, the overall demand level of corn has been continuously improved. Relevant data show that in the past three years, China's corn demand has shown an obvious increasing trend every year. On the whole, its annual increment is about 20 million tons, in which the increase of feed demand is higher than that of deep processing consumption.
In 20 17 years, the demand of corn feed industry in China accounted for nearly 90% of the total. In 20 18, some institutions adjusted the data of corn production and demand over the years. Although there is a certain gap in the analysis data given by various institutions, it is estimated that the demand for feed corn will drive130 million ~190 million tons in 20 18, and the industrial consumption will be before 70 million-80 million tons. According to the previous growth rate, adding seed use and other consumption, the demand level of corn in China may reach 240-270 million tons in 20 19. It is generally believed in the industry that the gap between corn production and demand in China in 20 19 is 30 million to 50 million tons.
However, the swine fever epidemic may suppress the increase in corn demand.
The epidemic situation of African swine fever continues to ferment, and the pig industry in 20 19 years is likely to lead to pessimistic demand for corn. In some areas with serious epidemic situation, the current situation of pig breeding is very pessimistic. The survey data shows that the number of live pigs in some areas may drop by more than 50%, and the price of live pigs even falls below 5 yuan/kg. Due to factors such as limited transportation of pigs, the pigs to be slaughtered have been fattened to more than 400 kilograms, but there is still no turning point in the situation. The appalling situation has led to the loss of confidence of some farmers, some of whom have started to slaughter pigs and reduce the stock level to keep the pig farm running, and the willingness to make up for the pigs has dropped to freezing point.
At present, the epidemic situation of classical swine fever has spread from the production area to the sales area, and the situation of nationwide spread is grim. The pig price gap between the production and sales areas has been further widened by the measures of pig embargo. Due to the capital chain and other factors, it will inevitably accelerate the departure of smaller-scale breeding units, and the impact on feed corn after the reduction of live pigs is expected to appear further in 20 19.
At present, in the annual reports of some institutions, the demand for feed corn in China in 20 19 has been reduced from the annual increase of10 million tons in the past few years to the increase of several million tons. If we are more pessimistic, the demand for feed corn may not increase again in 20 19, and the consumption of feed corn may remain at the same scale as in 20 18.
In recent years, with the extensive layout of corn deep processing industry, the expected increase in the capacity of deep processing has become a tonic for corn demand. However, whether the new capacity can be fully converted into new demand remains to be judged. In 20 18, the domestic starch export momentum was strong. In the past, the price of raw corn grain in China continued to rise, and some deep processing profits began to shrink. In 20 19 years, it is debatable whether corn starch still has a competitive price advantage under the mode of high raw grain price. In addition, the development prospect of fuel ethanol industry is also very good. China actively promotes the application of fuel ethanol. According to the addition level of 10% in gasoline, there is still a big gap in the supply of fuel ethanol in the next few years. However, the gap may be squeezed by destocked rice, and there are rumors that millions of tons of ethanol will be imported from the United States. It seems that there is not much room for corn to play in ethanol demand.
Therefore, on the whole, the demand level of corn in China in 20 19 may be limited, and the demand in some industries and fields may need to be discounted.
Supply side: decrease in reserves and increase in imports.
In 20 18, China was still in the stage of vigorously destocking. After the Spring Festival, the corn import data began to rise, reaching its peak in May, and then quickly fell back. The data shows that the total amount of corn, sorghum and barley imported by China in 20 18/20 19 is estimated to be 9 million tons, down 44% year-on-year. Excluding wine barley, the total amount of imported feed grains (corn, sorghum and feed barley) is only 6 million tons, which can replace 5.7 million tons of domestic corn, down 54% year-on-year.
The corn import in 20 18 is estimated to be 3.5 million tons, an increase of 16.70% compared with last year. According to customs data, by the end of 20 18 1 1 month, corn imports had reached 3 1 1 10,000 tons, an increase of about10 compared with the actual import of 2.827 million tons in 20 17. Although the price difference between imported corn and domestic corn is around 200 yuan/ton, China has been controlling the import quantity under the influence of high inventory and import quota policy.
The export quantity of corn in 20 18 is small and can be ignored.
As for substitutes, in 20 18 1- 10, the cumulative import of sorghum was 3.648 million tons, a decrease of 888,000 tons compared with 20 17, and the import of barley was 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 49/kloc-compared with 20 17. In 20 18 1- 10, the cumulative amount of imported DDGS was 266,000 tons, a decrease of110.3 million tons compared with 20 17, and the import amount was huge, most of which was used for corn substitution, which caused harm to corn.
From 20 14 to 20 18, the import substitution decreased year by year, and the tariff of trade war increased, so there was no great substitution advantage for imported grains.
Operational thinking: analyze the influence of corn import rationally.
The market of corn in 20 19 must be inseparable from Sino-US trade relations.
Judging from the outline of some grain trade agreements announced by the media after the G20 summit, China may purchase a considerable amount of American corn and related products in the future, with data showing about 20 million tons, which is also an important reason for the overall downward trend of corn futures prices in China. Recently, China's reserve enterprises have begun to purchase 3 million tons of American corn as the national reserve. In addition, China has also adjusted the tariff rate of a series of imported goods, reducing the tariff and tax of miscellaneous grains and other products. It is not difficult to imagine that in 20 19, China's agricultural product import policy is expected to be relaxed, regardless of whether it purchases American goods or not.
For the corn market, purchasing millions of tons of corn for reserve has no direct impact on the current market. However, considering that substitutes such as barley, sorghum and DDGS still have obvious price advantages for Chinese corn at present, it is expected that the import link in 20 19 will bring staged pressure to Chinese corn market.
From the time stage, from now until spring sowing, domestic corn still needs to be marketed and realized. From the perspective of farmers' grain sales, substantial import behavior may not happen. At the same time, considering that there are still nearly 80 million tons of temporarily stored corn in China that need to be destocked, the import plan of related products may gradually flow in in the form of small batches and multiple batches without affecting the corn market as much as possible. Although the price of new corn is hard to resist the import advantage, it is likely that temporary storage corn will be able to form the same rival situation with imported corn varieties in 20 19 years, and the game in price and other aspects should not be too passive.
On the whole, although the gap between production and demand still exists, the overall supply and demand situation of corn in China in 20 19 may be more relaxed than previously expected, but there are various variables in each link.
In view of the current favorable situation of grain storage in the market, corn storage and possible deep processing subsidies in the future, the corn market has gained a warm wind. At present, farmers' psychology of selling grain has not completely collapsed, and the spot corn market may not fall further. Before the Spring Festival, corn prices may fluctuate slightly.
In 20 19, the market will usher in the auction of temporary stored grain, the import of corn and its substitutes, and the fermentation of classical swine fever, which will bring new influence to the market trend in different time periods. Considering that there are still many uncertain factors in the future, it seems not advisable to look too much or bearish on the market. Before the lack of sufficient means of risk control and value preservation, it is a good operational idea to seize the opportunity to enter the market in time and make timely profits.