1. In recent years, the sales performance of ASML has grown very fast. Due to its absolute superiority in high-end mask aligner, asml's mask aligner has been in short supply. In the past two years, although affected by the epidemic, due to the global chip shortage, asml's mask aligner is also in short supply, so ASML's performance has also increased rapidly. In fiscal year 20021,ASML's operating income was186.10/billion euros, up by 33.14% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of the parent company was 5.883 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 65.55%; However, after entering 2022, asml's performance seems to have declined. Judging from the financial report in the first quarter, its revenue was only $3.96 billion, down 24.57% year-on-year, and its profit was only $780 million, down 5 1.36% year-on-year.
However, the quarterly financial report of/kloc-0 can't reflect the real sales situation of asml, because the demand for mask aligner by major manufacturers is very urgent at present, so some orders from mask aligner have been delivered to customers before they have obtained the factory access test, and the income of these orders needs to be confirmed in the next few quarters. According to the actual situation, asml's orders have been scheduled for 2024, so it can be expected that asml's mask aligner will maintain a high-speed growth in the next few years.
2. How much mask aligner did ASML sell to China? In 2022 1 quarter, asml sold 62 mask aligner, including 59 new systems and 3 second-hand systems. As for how many of these 62 mask aligner were sold to China, asml did not give accurate data. But we can roughly infer from the composition of asml's sales performance. According to the financial data of ASML in the first quarter of 2022, 34% of its income came from Chinese mainland, which was significantly higher than 22% in the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0. In addition, China and Taiwan Province provinces contributed 22% of the income. It is equivalent to the whole of China contributing 56% of ASML's income.
Based on this calculation, in 2022 1 quarter, China purchased about $2.22 billion from asml in mask aligner, including about $1.30 million from Chinese mainland and about $870 million from Taiwan Province province. It's just that mask aligner purchased by the mainland is basically some low-end mask aligner, and it can't be EUV mask aligner, because asml is not allowed to export EUV mask aligner to China at present in Europe and America. For example, the EUV mask aligner ordered by SMIC from ASML several years ago has not been delivered yet. We don't have specific data about the price of asml ordinary mask aligner, but according to the financial report data of asml 202 1, they shipped 286 sets of mask aligner in the whole year, with a total revenue of186 billion euros.
Among them, EUV mask aligner shipped 42 units, contributing about 6.3 billion euros in revenue, equivalent to the price of each EUV mask aligner as high as10.50 billion euros. This means that the cumulative sales of the remaining 244 mask aligner units is about 65.438+0.23 billion euros, and the average price of each mask aligner unit is about 50 million euros. According to this price, the purchase amount of Chinese mainland in the first quarter of 2022 is about 654.38+35 million euros, and the corresponding quantity is about 27 sets.
Of course, many of these mask aligner may be relatively low-end mask aligner, so the corresponding figure of 654.38+35 million euros may be more, so Chinese mainland may buy 27 to 35 ASML mask aligner in the first quarter. In addition, in the first quarter, Taiwan Province imported about 870 million euros of mask aligner, some of which were probably EUV mask aligner, and the rest were probably other ordinary mask aligner, and the corresponding number of mask aligner should be between 1 1 and 17. Therefore, in the first quarter of 2022, China will probably buy 36 to 42 ASML mask aligner.
Third, we should solve the problem of high-end mask aligner by ourselves. From the sources of asml's performance, we can clearly see how important the China market is to asml, and more than half of its revenue comes from the China market. It is no wonder that many senior executives of asml have said that they attach great importance to the development of China market some time ago. However, no matter how much asml attaches importance to the China market, under the pressure of many European and American countries, they will never export top-grade EUV mask aligner to China, and China can only buy some low-end mask aligner.
Without the support of EUV mask aligner, it is almost impossible to produce chips above 7 nm. At present, some low-end mask aligner can only produce chips of 14 nm at most, and even after repeated exposure, they can only produce mask aligner of around 10 nm at most. Although SMIC has realized N+ 1 and N+2 processes through technical improvement, the core of its production is close to 7 nm, but there is still a big gap compared with the world's top 5 nm or even 3 nm chips. Therefore, to solve the domestic chip problem, it is not feasible to import mask aligner alone. Western countries can never sell us the most advanced equipment. If we want to narrow the gap between China's chip manufacturing strength and the world's top level, we have to rely on our own efforts.