In recent years, China's economic growth rate is gradually slowing down from nearly 8% to about 7% this year, and it still faces continuous downward pressure. Some people think that under the new normal, if there is no new growth impetus, China is likely to cross the "middle income trap".

Therefore, some commentators believe that the old "troika" (investment, consumption and export) that drives the economy should be upgraded to "new troika". As for what the "new troika" should include, there are different opinions that it should include urbanization, large consumption and RMB internationalization; Others suggested that investment should be upgraded to "new investment", consumption should be upgraded to "new consumption" and the "Belt and Road" should also be included.

It is worth noting that consumption is always mentioned in many versions of the content of "New Troika". Behind the continuous downward pressure on the economy, the importance of consumption has been mentioned in an unprecedented position. According to the data of the government's macroeconomic management department, in 20 14 years, the contribution of consumption to China's economic growth exceeded that of investment. The latest situation is that in the first three quarters of 20 15, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth further increased to 58.4%.

The further improvement of consumption contribution rate is related to residents' purchasing power. Another factor that cannot be ignored is that the development of "new economy" has opened up new channels, amplified consumption level and promoted consumption upgrading.

The new economy represented by the Internet economy, with its advanced format and fewer circulation links, has greatly reduced the circulation cost and promoted the consumption upgrade. Numerically, the annual online shopping amount of "Shuang 1 1" and "Black Five" shows an almost geometric increase; From a larger perspective, behind this online consumption boom, there is also a change in the consumption habits of the whole people:

For example, if the smog comes, you may go to the e-commerce website to search for an air purifier while spitting; With the growth of age, the types of snacks to eat are changing, and the types of exercise to do are also changing; After adding a baby at home, the new parents are excited and their consumption habits are quietly changing. ...

The conscious and unconscious behaviors of these people are aggregated and structured through online shopping platforms such as Taobao, forming a valuable big data gold mine. In the online consumption big data mining of 20 15, CBNData found that some traditional industries and consumers who used to rely heavily on offline are showing obvious online consumption pictures, while in 20 16,

It may be hard for you to imagine that half of the hairy crabs in China are sold through the Internet; Liquor that is also more suitable for offline purchase, the increase of 20 15 in the first half of the year was as high as 76%. And our parents are more fashionable than expected. They buy health products, daily necessities and even square dance equipment online.

This topic attempts to restore a true picture of online merchants in China from three dimensions of non-traditional online consumption: consumption of agricultural products, consumption of the elderly and consumption of alcohol.

1. How did pecans and hairy crabs win the cyber counterattack?

E-commerce has burned to the oldest industry in China.

Since ancient times, seven things have opened, and rice, oil, salt, sauce and vinegar tea. Almost all these seven things are related to the word "agriculture"

In the past, in people's minds, agricultural products had to be bought in the vegetable market. However, in recent years, e-commerce has also spread to the agricultural field. Buying agricultural products online has become the "daily life" of many people: pollution-free vegetables can be delivered home as soon as possible with a click of the mouse.

Data is the easiest to talk about. Take Taobao and Tmall platforms as examples. The annual sales of agricultural products in 201/kloc-0 was 5.7 billion yuan, which climbed to1700 million yuan in 20 13, and reached 27.7 billion yuan in 20 14, almost one year.

Interestingly, those agricultural products that are traditionally considered as necessities for survival, especially bulk agricultural products, have a broad market, but the space left for e-commerce is very small. However, products that traditionally belong to the second echelon have encountered insufficient channels offline, but they have achieved great development by relying on the network.

Hairy crabs and pecans are the representatives of counterattack. They face some problems more or less offline, and have achieved great success after sprinting e-commerce.

Behind the great changes in consumption scenarios, what are the unknown big data laws of agricultural products e-commerce?

Agricultural products sales, online and offline "two China"

"oranges are born in Huainan and oranges are born in Huaibei." Affected by geographical factors such as land and climate, agricultural products show obvious geographical distribution characteristics offline.

On the other hand, the imbalance of internet development directly leads to the regional imbalance of e-commerce development, thus forming a regional distribution map of online sales of agricultural products in another scenario.

After comparison, it is found that the online and offline coincidence degree of agricultural products is very low. Only the offline origin of nuts, tea and tonics basically coincides with the online sales place, while the fresh cut flowers and seedlings partially overlap, and the offline origin of other categories hardly coincides with the online sales place.

For example, the offline origin of pecans is mainly Lin 'an, Zhejiang Province. The data shows that pecans sold in Lin 'an account for 47.7% of the entire online market, and the origin and sales volume are similar. The main producing areas of tea offline are Fujian, Yunnan, Zhejiang and Anhui, which are basically consistent with online sales.

In addition, for the two most popular agricultural products, hickory and tea, Zhejiang people not only love to grow them, but also love to buy them online, which can be described as a place rich in agricultural resources and developed in e-commerce.

Agricultural products sales, online and offline "two China"

According to the agricultural product sales data of Taobao and Tmall, the online agricultural product trading scale has expanded rapidly since 20 1 1. Take 20 14 as an example. On Taobao and Tmall, the annual sales of agricultural products reached 27.7 billion yuan.

If classified, dried meat, preserved fruit, tea and nuts are the three agricultural products with the largest online trading scale in 20 14, while the top three offline markets in the same period are vegetables and fruits, aquatic products and grain and oil respectively. The online and offline market patterns of agricultural products are quite different.

What kind of agricultural products have their own e-commerce attributes? After introducing two indicators of "e-commerce difficulty" and "commercialization potential", the characteristic values of various agricultural products under different indicators can be obtained by analyzing the management links of different types of agricultural products.

Then, according to the two dimensions of e-commerce difficulty and commercialization potential, different agricultural products are divided into four categories.

Generally speaking, agricultural products with large online sales are generally easy to be e-commerce and have great commercialization potential. These categories include tonics, nuts, tea, dried meat and preserved fruit, dry goods and grains.

Regardless of logistics, preservation, or the characteristics of the goods themselves, such goods are undoubtedly the easiest to e-commerce. The data also shows that these agricultural products dominate the entire agricultural product e-commerce market without any suspense.

How can agricultural products use e-commerce platform to successfully counterattack? Pecans and hairy crabs are the best examples.

Case 1: Carya cathayensis attacks pistachios by using e-commerce platform.

Walnut and pistachio are both nut agricultural products, which are hot-selling categories on the Internet. But if it is subdivided, the online and offline market structure of these two nuts will be very different.

Baidu index can generally reflect the attention of the society. Taking Carya cathayensis as an example, its search index in Baidu hovered between 200- 1600 for a long time, while the search index of pistachios in the same period was between 1000- 12000. The overall attention rate of the market to pistachios is obviously higher than that of pecans, and the traditional channel of pistachios online is far more mature than that of pecans.

Interestingly, however, the e-commerce platform has made pecans.

From the scale comparison of Carya cathayensis and Pistachio nuts, online sales of Carya cathayensis greatly outperformed Pistachio nuts before 20 13, and it was still slightly ahead of Pistachio nuts in 20 14. Undoubtedly, through the excavation of the e-commerce platform, hickory successfully achieved a counterattack. Case 2: More than half of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs "crawl". Compared with nut agricultural products, aquatic products e-commerce has a big cold chain logistics problem. However, aquatic products e-commerce has also flourished in recent years, because aquatic products e-commerce has found a scene that can "escape" the cold chain problem.

At present, there are two kinds of best-selling aquatic products on the Internet: crabs and sea cucumbers. The former is mainly hairy crabs, especially Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs.

As the "king" of hairy crabs, Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs are well known. "Autumn wind starts, crabs are fat", from June to 165438+ 10 every year is the concentrated listing period of hairy crabs. But at this time, all kinds of fake Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs will appear in the markets of cities all over the country.

Now, the e-commerce model has solved this problem to some extent. Compared with the traditional offline channel, the path is too long and the information is opaque. The e-commerce platform not only shortens the path of fresh food circulation, but also makes the information more transparent and eliminates counterfeiting as much as possible. Therefore, Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs have become the object of competition among major e-commerce platforms.

At present, half of the annual output of hairy crabs in Yangcheng Lake is 20,000 tons, almost all of which are sold through online shopping and express delivery. It is one of the better varieties of agricultural products e-commerce.

Second, the purchasing power of middle-aged and elderly people is not lost to young people.

Grandpa and aunt also joined the "hands-on party"

In recent years, with the increase of Internet penetration rate and the expansion of netizens, the enthusiasm of middle-aged and elderly people to join the Internet has also been ignited. The data shows that the proportion of netizens aged 50 and over is increasing. There are not many middle-aged and elderly consumer goods in traditional industries online, but on the Internet, this is not a problem at all. There is no geographical restriction, and if you buy it wrong, there is also financial security, so uncles and aunts have joined the "hands-on party".

Of course, after all, it is not an impulsive age. The consumption concept of middle-aged and elderly people is still relatively conservative, and their trust in online shopping is relatively low. At present, the online shopping penetration rate of middle-aged and elderly people is not high, reaching 3.86% in 20 14 years.

However, due to China's aging and large population base, the 3.86% penetration rate is also a huge market. Moreover, the data shows that middle-aged and elderly people are very generous in the consumption of many commodities. The reason behind this may be that middle-aged and elderly people have high disposable income, more leisure time and more motivation and energy to shop online. Or they are unfamiliar with online shopping and the price is easily misled. ...

Like practical household items

The online consumption of middle-aged and elderly people is often influenced by family members. Middle-aged and elderly people retire at home, and society has little influence on them. They are concerned about their families. Their children and grandchildren have more contact with the internet and are proficient in online shopping, which affects their contact with the internet and learning online shopping. Correspondingly, after learning online shopping, middle-aged and elderly people will give more consideration to buying for their families. Their life focuses on their own families, including their small families with their spouses and their extended families with their children and grandchildren.

The data of online consumption shows that the proportion of middle-aged and elderly people buying household necessities is second only to clothing, and it is on the rise year by year. At the end of 20 14, it reached 17.5438+0%, which was 5% higher than the whole population.

In addition, middle-aged and elderly people are willing to buy better quality products for their families. They are willing to spend money when buying household items, and the unit price is always higher than the whole population.

Real money comes to "health"

Middle-aged and elderly people pay more and more attention to themselves while paying attention to their families. Among the online products they are concerned about, health care products rank high. When it comes to health care, most people first think of various health care products. The data shows that middle-aged and elderly people pay attention to buying health care products, nutritional products and other products, and their spending ratio is much higher than that of the whole population.

This is related to compensatory consumption psychology: when you are young, you will rush forward, and when you are old, you will naturally compensate yourself.

However, with the progress of the times, the consumption concept of middle-aged and elderly people has already been upgraded: eating alone is not enough, and exercise is healthier. In the past three years, more and more middle-aged and elderly people have bought sports shoes and sportswear, and more and more grandmothers have run, danced swords and practiced Tai Chi in the park.

However, within the middle-aged and elderly groups, the health preferences of different groups are also different: men prefer sports, while women prefer to buy nutrition and health products.

Women are obviously more financially capable, and most of them may be in charge of accounts at home. Whether it is the proportion of money or the unit price of customers, the aunts are one step ahead.

However, aunts are not easy to fool After all, they have been fighting with manufacturers offline for decades and have rich experience, and their online shopping skills will be improved in practice: with the increase of purchase frequency and the gradual popularization of online shopping, the unit price of customers who buy health care products has dropped rapidly, and they gradually know how to screen health care products with higher cost performance.

Per capita square dance equipment consumption is 437 yuan.

Middle-aged and elderly people pay attention to health and exercise. Square dance is regarded as a way of exercise and communication by many middle-aged and elderly people. Even under the smog of the red warning, the footsteps of the aunts did not stop. Those square dance aunts have a strong will. And just like young people running and riding to buy equipment, aunts must have a decent outfit when dancing. Then the question comes: to what extent should an aunt be "armed" if she wants to join the "dance forest"

The data shows that to reach the average level of dance equipment for middle-aged and elderly people (5 1-70 years old), it costs 437 yuan to buy a suit, dance shoes, accessories, clothes and aunts.

Third, online wine industry: multiple brands, women hold up half the sky.

Fine white wine, binge drinking beer. In China, wine will appear at almost all banquets, and guests will talk happily, raise their glasses and shout "cheers", which is the so-called "wine culture". With the rise of the e-commerce industry, the wine industry has also begun to "get an electric shock", and there has been an online wine industry that is different from offline.

Liquor: high-end popularization, and the price is more close to the people.

The history of liquor is accompanied by Chinese civilization, and it can capture the hearts of Chinese people better than imported red wine and beer.

From 20 10 to 20 14, liquor has always occupied the largest market share of these three wines. However, after the policies of "eight regulations", restricting three public consumption and prohibiting drunk driving were introduced one after another, the liquor market was obviously affected, especially the market sales growth rate of high-end liquor dropped rapidly from 54.7% in 20 10 to 4.8% in 20 14. Affected by this, in 20 13 and 20 14 years, the annual growth rate of liquor production also plummeted from the past double digits to 6% and 2%, which shows that the offline sales of liquor changed from high-speed growth mode to low-speed growth mode.

In the theme of deep adjustment of the industry, the demand for changing channels is particularly strong. Liquor manufacturers have laid out e-commerce channels.

In the whole year of 20 14, the sales of alcohol e-commerce channel was nearly1900 million yuan. What is more striking is that in the first half of 20 15, the sales amount has reached110 million yuan, up 76% year-on-year, which shows that the emerging online liquor market is booming.

Traditional offline liquor is mainly high-end liquor with higher price, and its sales volume is also concentrated in first-and second-tier cities. However, the emerging online liquor market presents different characteristics: from the perspective of online consumers, consumers in fourth-tier cities occupy an absolute advantage of 45%.

Judging from the unit price of each transaction, liquor with a price close to the people is more marketable, and liquor with a unit price of 100 ~ 150 yuan is the most popular.

This is because the demand for product price, packaging, concentration, etc. by the fourth-line consumers who have absolute advantages has broadened the online low-end market segment and provided rare market opportunities for second-and third-line liquor brands with close prices.

After liquor e-commerce, the era of mass consumption with price sensitivity, emphasis on consumption experience and family gathering as the main scenes has arrived.

Beer: the brands are diversified and the minority is popular.

Compared with liquor, the beer preferred by young people is fragile during transportation, because it is sensitive to temperature and light, and it is a ready-to-drink beverage. It is a product that is difficult to be commercialized on a large scale. However, in recent years, the beer market in China tends to be saturated. In the bleak market, major brands are interested in exploring new growth points and have settled in e-commerce platforms. This is a beer that lacks e-commerce genes, but it shows vigorous vitality online. Taking the beer sales in August as an example, it increased by 356% in 20 14 and 63% in 20 15, both of which far exceeded the total growth of the e-commerce market.

Looking at the online development of beer, we can find that online beer brands are more yuan.

The beer brands sold online are very rich, and there are more than 200 brands that have settled in Tmall alone. However, the concentration of online market is very low. The market share of the top ten online brands is only 62%, while the market share of the four offline beer brands exceeds 70%.

Rich brands also bring diversified products. On the Tmall platform, there are about 150 kinds of beer brands with active transactions, which are far more than offline. 16 products from countries and some regions can be obtained online. The tastes of beer are also varied, including black spleen, white spleen, yellow spleen, red spleen, fruit spleen, cooked beer and so on. It greatly caters to the individual consumption needs of consumers.

Online liquor consumption: The younger women like to buy liquor.

Traditionally, buying and drinking wine is almost a man's patent. However, online, women's purchasing power should not be underestimated. At present, men are still the main group consuming liquor online, but the proportion of female consumers has reached 43%.

In addition, the data also shows that about 30% to 50% of women over the age of 25 have bought liquor online, and the younger they are, the more they like to buy it.

The reason may be that young women's acceptance of drinking culture and consumption habits have also improved with the improvement of professionalism, and their attitude towards drinking has become more open.

More importantly, at present, the sincerity of drinking liquor is mostly for family gatherings and gifts, and women play an important role in this planned consumption.

Online Beer Consumption: Female Dominance

Women occupy half of the online liquor market, and women have also become the main consumers in the online beer market.

Judging from the sales of Taobao and Tmall, more women than men bought beer in the past six months. Among the online shoppers aged 25-35, women account for 58%, which is 16 percentage points higher than men.

The main reason is that the consumption scene of beer is different from online shopping. You have to wait at least one day before you can drink beer. Generally speaking, it is not based on some accidental and immediate demand, but more like liquor, it is a planned household consumption reserve. And the woman who is also in charge of the daily consumption of the family becomes the person who buys wine.