1. Accelerate the formation of a new normal of the economic structure led by the service industry. The transformation from industrial economy to service economy is intrinsically related to the per capita GDP level. During the transition period from US$ 6,500 per capita GDP to US$/kloc-0,000 in China, the proportion of service industry will increase by at least 1 0 percentage point. The overall judgment is that it is conditional and possible for China's service industry to account for more than 55% by 2020.
First of all, population urbanization provides an important carrier for the development of bioactive service industry. From the international experience, urbanization has entered a stage of rapid development, and meeting people's growing demand for developmental consumption is increasingly dependent on the development of life services such as education, health and medical care. In 20 13, China's nominal urbanization rate was 53.7%, while the population urbanization rate was only about 36%. Judging from the progress of new urbanization, the nominal urbanization rate may reach about 60% in 2020, and the population urbanization rate may reach more than 50%. In recent years, every increase in the urbanization rate 1 percentage point has driven the added value of the service industry to increase by 0.77 percentage points. Based on this estimate, even if the urbanization rate of population only increases by about 10 percentage point in the next six years, it may also drive the proportion of service industry to increase by 7-8 percentage points.
Second, industrial transformation and upgrading have injected internal impetus into the development of producer services. From the international experience, a prominent feature of economic transformation and upgrading in the middle and late stage of industrialization is the transformation from industrial economy to service economy. The transformation and upgrading of traditional agriculture and industry directly depends on the development of producer services, thus forming a huge market demand for producer services. The most prominent feature of the new round of industrial revolution is that producer services such as information, R&D, design, logistics, sales and big data lead the traditional manufacturing industry to upgrade to high-end manufacturing. In other words, the integration of high-end manufacturing industry and modern service industry is a general trend, and producer service industry has become the main driving force to enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing industry. In Germany, for example, the reason why high-end manufacturing industry can maintain the leading position in the world is that producer services account for more than 50% of the service industry. As a big manufacturing country, China's advantage of "China Creation" is far from outstanding, that is, the development of producer services is seriously lagging behind, accounting for only 15% of the service industry. In the next six years, the proportion of producer services in China needs to increase by at least 15-20 percentage points, reaching 30%-40%. This is the inherent requirement and the only way for China's industrial transformation and upgrading.
2. Form a new pattern dominated by service industry, which will affect the overall situation of economic transformation and upgrading. The development degree of service industry is an important symbol of forming the new normal of economy. It has not only become the main driving force of economic transformation, but also will continuously release the new driving force of economic growth.
First, form a new normal of medium-speed growth. China is still a big country in economic transformation, and the new normal of economic growth depends on the formation of a service-oriented economic structure as soon as possible. In recent years, every percentage point increase in China's service industry can drive GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points. If the added value of service industry grows at an average annual rate of 10% in the next six years, it can boost economic growth by about 4 percentage points, laying an important foundation for the new normal of medium-speed growth.
Second, form a new normal of expanding new employment. Forming a service-oriented economic structure is the main channel to expand employment. Judging from the situation in the past two years, every increase in the added value of the service industry by 1 percentage point can create about 1 10,000 new jobs. It is estimated that in the next six years, the added value of service industry will increase by 10% every year, and about 100000 new jobs will be created every year.
Third, form a new normal of innovation and entrepreneurship in the whole society. In the middle and late stage of industrialization, producer services are directly integrated into the whole process of manufacturing transformation and upgrading. For example, technology upgrading is directly combined with service requirements. If technological upgrading can't reflect the change of service demand, it will be difficult to generate internal motivation and have a good market prospect. The competitiveness of enterprises is directly related to the quality of service, and the competitiveness of enterprises mainly depends on whether the service links are specialized and refined. Therefore, the leading role of service industry is not only the main driving force to form a new wave of innovation and entrepreneurship, but also an important condition to open up a huge market space for innovation and entrepreneurship, thus forming a new pattern of innovation-driven.
Fourth, form a new normal of interest structure and social structure optimization. From the international experience, the rapid development of the service industry will bring about the continuous expansion of the middle class. Take the United States as an example During the 30 years from the 1940s to the 1970s, with the formation of a new pattern dominated by the service industry, the size of the white-collar class has also expanded five times. In the next six years, with the establishment of the dominant position of the service industry, the proportion of employment in China's service industry is expected to reach more than 50%. By 2020, the number of employees in the service industry will not be less than 400 million, which will double the number of middle-income groups.
3. Make a substantial increase in the proportion of service industry as the binding goal of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" is a crucial five-year period for China's economic transformation and upgrading. Whether a service-oriented economic structure can be formed is very important for China's future development in 10-20 years.
First, substantially increase the proportion of service industry. It is suggested that the national "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" clearly takes the service industry as 55% of GDP and the producer service industry as 30% as the main binding targets, as the main criteria for measuring structural adjustment and optimization.
Second, accelerate investment transformation. Comply with the rapid growth trend of service demand, and focus on increasing investment in life services such as education, medical care, health, culture and sports; Starting from the actual needs of industrial transformation and upgrading, we will focus on increasing investment in producer services such as information, research and development, design and logistics.
Third, realize a profound change in the concept of development. From an industrial country to a service country, enterprises, society and government will face unprecedented challenges, especially the need to change some traditional development concepts. For example, to become a service-oriented country and form a new pattern of service industry is not to abandon manufacturing or industry, but to upgrade traditional industries through producer service industry and promote the upgrade from "Made in China" to "Created in China".