In the end what is the situation? Together to understand:
One, grain prices shock change
In recent times, corn, wheat market are obvious shock market, affected by the peak of the market selling grain, as well as the main body of the mentality of the grain holders are not stable in the operation of the performance of the grain prices, resulting in the frequency of changes in the rise and fall more quickly.
First take a look at the December 16 corn market, the overall look of the Shandong region mixed, more than less, Henan, Heilongjiang and other places in some enterprises to lower the purchase price, specifically:
Shandong Huimin Chunhui up 0.5 points, quoted at 1.49 yuan; plains Fuyang up 0.5 points, quoted at 1.48 yuan; Linqing gold corn up 0.5 points, quoted at 1.438 yuan/catty; Changle Shengtai rose 0.5 cents, quoted 1.46 yuan; Chengwu Dadi fell 0.5 cents, 1.485 yuan/catty; Chengwu Dadi fell 0.5 cents, quoted 1.485 yuan/catty; Dazhe Chengbi fell 0.5 cents, quoted 1.475 yuan/catty.
Henan Mengzhou Houyuan dropped 0.5 cents to offer 1.495 yuan/catty; Feitian starch dropped 0.3 cents to offer 1.455 yuan/catty.
Heilongjiang Longfeng corn fell 0.5 cents, quoted 1.345 yuan/catty; Beijing grain Longjiang fell 0.5 cents, quoted 1.34 yuan/catty.
At present, the recent corn market shock, the market divergence between the two sides, the main reason is that the favorable factors and unfavorable factors are evenly matched, when a party prevails, there will be "up" or "down".
Favorable factors:
One is the decline in corn production this year, in the three northeastern provinces of corn yields fell, the sowing area fell, the total corn production fell, according to the MYsteel agricultural statistics show that: 2022 corn production of 257 million tons, a decline of 6.8 million tons compared with 2021.
The second is that the farm output is reluctant to sell emotionally heavy, mainly because this year, planting corn land inputs, production materials put high, farmers expect higher prices for corn, so the price is low is not willing to sell, many are still waiting for prices to rise.
Third, the impact of international factors, by the world food crisis, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other impacts, the volume of international trade in corn has a downward trend, the domestic food prices also have a certain supportive role.
In addition to the favorable side, there are also unfavorable side of corn prices:
One is currently at the peak of corn sales, the annual December, the market parties by the impact of funds, the price is unfavorable, i.e., the farmers end of the year, large consumption, repayment of loans are in need of money, the enterprise end-of-year accounts, financial constraints; bank currency cage, including corn, including the grain market have been unfavorable.
The second is that traders wait-and-see atmosphere is heavier, by last year's purchase and sale of corn not much profit or even lose money lessons learned, the current mainstream price of corn around the world are relatively high, North China 1.45-1.52 yuan/catty, Shandong 1.45-1.55 yuan/catty, Northeast 1.35-1.42 yuan/catty, Northeast 1.35-1.55 yuan/catty, Northeast 1.35-1.52 yuan/catty, Northeast 1.35-1.52 yuan/catty. 1.42 yuan / catty, due to the high price, many traders acquisition is more cautious.
On the market, I think, from the present to the end of February 2023 this period of time, corn prices rising power is insufficient, down no logic, in a sideways oscillation probability is greater, neither big up nor big down.
Two, pork prices continue to fall, before the year can still rise?
Often go to the market to buy food people must have noticed that in recent times, the market price of pork fell, and fell a lot, it is understood that the price of pork across the country than in November fell about 4, 5 dollars, the original sale of 22-24 yuan of pork, and now also 18, 19 yuan a catty, the individual pig price of the low Heilongjiang, Jilin and other northern areas, have been dropped to 16, 17 yuan a catty.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to monitor the latest data show that: the average price of pork in the national wholesale market of agricultural products is 30.13 yuan per kilogram, a decline of 0.7% compared with yesterday, the national average price of 15.065 yuan a city catty in the wholesale market, the price is still quite cheap.
Today went to the local farmers market (Heilongjiang Suiling), front leg meat 17 yuan / catty, pork ribs 23 yuan / catty, pork 18 yuan / catty, big bones 13 yuan / catty, the overall look, pork than in November fell about 4 dollars.
Pork prices fell, in the end what is the reason? Personally, I think there are three main reasons:
1, the price of hogs dropped a lot.
It is understood that from late October to now, less than 2 months, pig prices from the high 14.2 yuan / kg, down to the current 9.575 yuan / kg, a catty down more than 4 blocks, pork a catty drop a 4, 5 yuan is also normal.
Below is the December 17th hog prices, another 17 provinces hog prices fell:
2, part of the population's ability to consume decreased.
While in the peak season of pork consumption, but for some families affected by economic factors shrinking income, there is a decline in the ability to consume.
3, the traditional consumption capacity is insufficient.
While the recent meat prices cheaper, but the current 18, 9 yuan per catty of pork is still not low, resulting in the southern region to make bacon than in previous years, about 3% less, the number of northern regions to slaughter the annual pig in previous years less.
On the Spring Festival before the period of pork prices, I think it will go up some, before the Spring Festival around the mainstream price back to 20-25 yuan / catty probability is greater.
Mainly taking into account the recent month's time, in the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival consumption is expected, pig prices will have a rebound upward process, the pull of pork prices.
Three, egg prices fell again
Since the National Day in order to, the egg market has appeared a sustained, slow shock downward trend, the mainstream price of eggs has fallen to below 6 yuan, and even individual places have appeared "4 words" eggs.
Today, the egg market continues to maintain a weak trend, more than 15 provinces in Northeast, North China, Central China, Northwest China and other egg prices fell, the overall decline in 3 cents - 10 cents or so.
At present, the mainstream price of eggs in Northeast China is 4.80-5.30 yuan/catty; in North China, it is 4.97-5.45 yuan/catty; in East China, the mainstream price is 5.13-6.5 yuan/catty, in Central China, it is 5.20-6.15 yuan/catty, Northwest China 4.75-6.6 yuan/catty.
The reason for the decline in egg prices, there is not much to say, briefly, there are three main points:
One is the decline in egg production capacity, mainly due to the high stock of laying hens, resulting in a rise in production capacity.
The second is to enter the winter, meat consumption into the peak season, egg consumption has a certain substitution effect.
Third is currently in the traditional egg consumption off-season, every year from October, until around the Spring Festival, egg consumption is relatively light.
The current performance of egg prices, has been more in line with the previous analysis of egg prices in some of the articles set out that the egg price shock down, there has been a 4-word egg prices, the average price of about 5.35 yuan / kg.
On the market, I think 5 yuan / catty should encounter strong support, down space has been very limited, farmers do not have to worry.
Four, sheep prices up and down dilemma, too disturbing!
2022 in the sheep industry, it is indeed more difficult, no wonder the market, some people say, this year sheep to make money is a joke.
Why, because from the beginning of the year, until around August, the price of sheep has been in the fall, a sheep counted, cheaper than at the beginning of the year to less than 200-300 yuan or so, at the same time superimposed on the increase in the cost of farming, sheep profits have become extremely low.
It was thought that after entering September, especially after entering the fourth quarter, in the peak season of consumption under the pull, sheep prices will have a significant rise, but the market situation is not satisfactory, up and down, fluctuations are not big, more simmering.
The latest sheep price market shows: Inner Mongolia Hohhot area male lambs 530-550/only, ewe lambs 500/only; Jining City, out of ewes 12.3 yuan / catty, large rams 13.2 yuan / catty; Hulunbeier Moqi male lambs 30 catties of 650 yuan / only;
Hebei Tangxian small-tailed chilly string of 13.2 yuan / catty, fine wool sheep strings 13.5 yuan / catty, Xinmin sheep 13.8 / catty; Hengshui 30 catties male lambs 620 yuan / catty, ewe lambs 450 yuan / catty; Henan Xiangcheng County eliminated cotton sheep ewes 10 yuan / catty, rams 12.5 yuan / catty; Shanxi Xinzhou City, Xinfu District, the price of 14.5 yuan / catty, Shandong Zaozhuang Xuecheng District, the price of 16.0 yuan / catty.
While the price of sheep is relatively low, but the price of mutton is still high, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring data also shows: the national wholesale market of agricultural products beef 78.27 yuan / kg, down 0.1% compared with yesterday; mutton 68.35 yuan / kg, up 0.5% compared with yesterday.
Retail prices around the world, but also a little higher, generally are between 40-45 yuan / kg.
Sheep price market is not good, mainly because: in recent years, in the economic downturn farmers working hard, sheep profit preference and other circumstances, many farmers and friends one after another into the sheep industry, resulting in a rise in the stock of sheep.
Statistics show that: in 2018, the national stock of sheep 297.14 million head, after three years of consecutive increase, to reach 319.69 million head in 2021, an increase of 7.6%.
Coupled with the impact of health factors in the past few years, some of the residence income decline, consumption capacity has also declined, so the price of sheep has not been able to get up.
Fifth, on the firecrackers, came a good news
Recently, the People's Daily, an article "to the local government to build a word: it is not appropriate to ban firecrackers", by the majority of netizens by the general collection of many of the ban on firecrackers area netizens said, it is estimated that this year you can set off firecrackers.
Here also hope that the ban on the discharge of firecrackers in the place, can seriously consider this proposal to restore the residents can be set off during the Spring Festival, let us *** with try to wait for it!
The following on this issue, I very much agree with the People's Daily's proposal, because the fireworks is our traditional culture, but also when we have the Lunar New Year, the more meaningful form of celebration, this fun is irreplaceable.
At the same time, over the years, the Chinese people have characteristics that distinguish them from other countries and peoples, such as eating "zongzi" at the Dragon Boat Festival, eating "dumplings" at New Year's Eve, "playing dragon lanterns" at the Lantern Festival, "playing dragon lanterns" at the Chung Yeung Festival, "playing dragon lanterns" at the Chung Yeung Festival, and "playing dragon lanterns" at the Chung Yeung Festival. "The same as the Chongyang Festival," "ascend the heights," is our national element, can not be discarded.
What do you think?
Friends, I wonder how much pork, eggs, beef and mutton cost a catty where you are? Are firecrackers banned in your place this year? Please share for the reference of netizens across the country.