In recent years, China's economic growth rate has gradually slowed from nearly 8 percent to an estimated 7 percent this year, and is still facing continued downward pressure. Some argue that without new growth drivers in the new normal, China is likely to miss the "middle-income trap".
Thus, some commentators believe that the old "troika" (investment, consumption, exports) should be upgraded to the "new troika". As for the "new troika" in the end what should be included, there are many different views that should include urbanization, large consumption, the internationalization of the RMB; there are also suggestions that investment should be upgraded to a "new type of investment", consumption upgraded to a "new type of consumption". The "new type of consumption", "Belt and Road" should also be included.
It is worth noting that in the multiple versions of the "new troika" content, consumption is always mentioned. Behind the continuing downward pressure on the economy, the importance of consumption has been raised to a more important position than ever before. And the data from the government's macroeconomic management department also shows that in 2014, the contribution of consumption to China's economic growth exceeded that of investment. The latest scenario is that in the first three quarters of 2015, the contribution of consumption to economic growth further increased to 58.4%.
The further increase in the contribution rate of consumption is related to the increase in purchasing power of residents on the one hand, and the development of the "new economy", which opens up new channels and amplifies consumption levels, contributing to the upgrading of consumption, on the other hand, should not be overlooked.
The new economy, represented by the Internet economy, has greatly reduced the cost of distribution by virtue of its advanced mode of operation and fewer circulation links, which has led to the upgrading of consumption. Numerically speaking, every year's "Double 11", "Black Friday", etc., the amount of online shopping has shown almost geometric growth; from a larger level, this online consumer boom behind, but also accompanied by a shift in the habits of the whole population:
For example, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, the haze days are coming, and the haze days are coming. Behavior, through Taobao and other online shopping platforms to get convergence, structured integration, the formation of valuable big data gold mine, and in the excavation of the 2015 online consumption of big data, the first financial business data center (CBNData) is to find that usual highly dependent on the offline some of the traditional industries and the consumer population, is presenting a clear picture of online consumption, and there is a tendency to continue to go high in 2016 .
You may find it hard to imagine that half of the hairy crabs in China are sold through the Internet; liquor, which is also more suitable for offline purchases, rose as much as 76% year-on-year in the first half of 2015; and our parents are even more trendy than we thought, buying health care products, daily necessities, and even equipment for square dancing online.
This feature attempts to restore a true picture of China's online business from the dimensions of the three major non-traditional online consumption: agricultural consumption, elderly consumption, and alcohol consumption.
First, how do pecans and hairy crabs win the battle of online retrogression?
E-commerce burned to China's oldest industry
Since ancient times, the door is open to seven things, wood, rice, oil, salt, soy, vinegar and tea. These seven things, almost all of them have something to do with the word "agriculture".
In the past, in people's concept, agricultural products have to go to the market to buy. But in recent years, e-commerce has burned its way into the agricultural world, and buying agricultural products online has become a "daily routine" for many people: a little bit of mouse, pollution-free vegetables can be delivered to your home as soon as possible on the same day.
The data is easy to talk about, take Taobao and Tmall platform, in 2011, sales of agricultural products for 5.7 billion yuan, in 2013 climbed to 17 billion yuan, in 2014 reached 27.7 billion yuan, almost a year on a step.
Interestingly, those who are traditionally considered to be necessary to maintain the survival of agricultural products, especially bulk agricultural products, although the market is vast, but the space left to the e-commerce is very small, and traditionally belongs to the second echelon of the product, offline ate enough of the suffering of the lack of channels, relying on the network instead of getting a big development.
The hairy crab and pecan is the representative of the retrograde sector, they are more or less offline are facing some problems, full sprint after the e-commerce, a big success.
Behind the drastic changes in the consumer scene, what are the unknown laws of agricultural e-commerce big data?
Agricultural sales, online and offline "two China"
"Orange is born in Huainan is orange, born in Huabei is Hovenia", by the land, climate and other geographic factors, agricultural products online offline shows a clear regional distribution characteristics.
On the other hand, the market for agricultural products online is characterized by regional distribution.
On the other hand, the imbalance in the development of the Internet has directly led to the regional imbalance in the development of e-commerce, which has resulted in the formation of another scenario of the regional distribution map of agricultural products sold online.
The comparison reveals that the overlap of agricultural products online and offline is very low. Only nuts, tea, tonic offline origin and online sales place basically overlap, fresh cut flowers, seedlings partially overlap, other categories of offline blooming place and online hot sales place almost no overlap.
For example, the offline origin of pecans is mainly in Lin'an, Zhejiang Province, and the data show that Lin'an area sold pecans accounted for 47.7% of the entire online market, the origin and sale of almost the same place. The main offline origin of tea is Fujian, Yunnan, Zhejiang and Anhui, which is also basically the same as the online sales place.
In addition, for pecans and tea, two of the most popular online agricultural products, Zhejiang people not only love to plant, but also love to buy online, can be said to be rich in agricultural resources and developed e-commerce place.
Sales of agricultural products, online and offline "two China"
From the Taobao and Tmall sales data of agricultural products, since 2011, the online trading scale of agricultural products is expanding at a high speed. In 2014, for example, on Taobao and Tmall, annual sales of agricultural products reached 27.7 billion yuan.
If you look into the details by category, dried meat and fruit, tea and nuts are the three largest categories of agricultural products traded online in 2014, while the offline market in the same period, the turnover accounted for the top three vegetables and fruits, aquatic products and grains and oils, respectively. Agricultural products online, offline market pattern is very different.
What kind of agricultural products with e-commerce attributes In the introduction of "ease of e-commerce" and "commercialization potential" two indicators, through the analysis of different categories of agricultural products in the business process, you can get all kinds of agricultural products in the different indicators of the characteristics of the value.
Into the market.
Further, according to the two dimensions of the ease of e-commerce and commercialization potential of the simple cross, different categories of agricultural products can be grouped into four categories.
In general, agricultural products with large online sales are generally easy to e-commerce and have high commercialization potential, and these categories include tonic, nuts, tea, dried meat and fruit, dried specialties, and cereal punch.
Whether it is from logistics, preservation, or the characteristics of the goods themselves, these commodities are undoubtedly the most easy e-commerce. And the data also shows that these agricultural products unquestionably dominate the entire agricultural e-commerce market
How can agricultural products use the e-commerce platform to make a successful comeback? Pecans and hairy crabs are the best examples.
Case 1: Hickory use of the e-commerce platform against the pistachio
Walnuts and pistachios belong to the nut category of agricultural products, online this is a hot category. But if you look at the breakdown, the two nuts online and offline market pattern can be said to be very different.
The Baidu index generally reflects the degree of social concern. Pecans, for example, it is in the Baidu search index for a long time hovering between 200 to 1600, while the same period of the pistachio search index in the range of 1000 to 12000, the market for pistachio's overall attention rate is significantly higher than that of the pecan, pistachio offline traditional channels are also far more mature than the pecan.
But it is interesting that the e-commerce platform achievement instead of pecans.
From the comparison of the size of pecans and pistachios, before 2013, pecans online sales significantly outperformed pistachios, and sales in 2014 are still slightly ahead of pistachios. There is no doubt that by tapping into the e-commerce platform, pecans have successfully made a comeback. Case 2: more than half of Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs "climbed on the net" and nuts compared to agricultural products, aquatic products, e-commerce originally had a cold chain logistics problem. But aquatic products e-commerce in recent years, the same boom, the reason is that aquatic products e-commerce to find can "escape" the cold chain problem of the scene.
At present, the most popular aquatic products sold offline are mainly two kinds: crab and sea cucumber. The former is dominated by hairy crabs, especially those from Yangcheng Lake.
As the "king" of hairy crabs, Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs are known far and wide. "Autumn wind, the crab is fat", every year from June to November, is the hairy crab concentrated listing period. But every time this period, all kinds of fake Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs will appear in the market of various cities across the country.
Now, this problem is solved to some extent by the e-commerce model. Compared to the traditional offline channel path is too long, the information is not transparent, the e-commerce platform not only shortens the path of the circulation of fresh food, but also makes the information more transparent, and as far as possible to eliminate the counterfeiting, so the Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs have also become the object of major e-commerce platforms to scramble.
At present, half of the annual production of 20,000 tons of hairy crabs in Yangcheng Lake, almost all through online shopping, express sales, is one of the varieties of agricultural products in the e-commerce to do a good job.
Second, the purchasing power of middle-aged and elderly people do not lose young people
moncler outlet store also have joined the "chopping party"
Over the years, with the increase in Internet penetration, the expansion of the size of the Internet users, the middle-aged and elderly people to devote themselves to the network of the enthusiasm has also been ignited. Data show that the proportion of Internet users in the age group of 50 and above has been increasing. The traditional offline industry, "special" middle-aged and older people's consumer goods and not much, but online, this is not a problem at all, there is no geographical limitations, buy the wrong money security, moncler jackets outlet, they have to join the "chopping party".
Of course, after all, it is not easy to impulsive age, middle-aged and elderly people's consumer attitudes are still conservative, the trust of online shopping is relatively low. Currently, the penetration rate of online shopping among middle-aged and elderly people is not high, only reaching 3.86% in 2014.
However, due to China's gradual aging and large population base, there is a huge market behind the 3.86% penetration rate. Moreover, the data shows that middle-aged and elderly people are very generous when it comes to the consumption of many commodities. The reason behind this may be that middle-aged and elderly people's high disposable income and more leisure time give them more strength and energy to shop online. Or they are unfamiliar with online shopping and can be easily misled on prices ......
Prefer practical household goods
Online spending by middle-aged and elderly people is often influenced by family members. The middle-aged and the elderly are retired, society has little influence on them, and their focus is on their families. Their children and grandchildren have a lot of contact with the Internet and are skilled in online shopping, thus influencing them to contact the Internet and learn online shopping. Accordingly, middle-aged and elderly people will give more consideration to purchasing for their families after learning online shopping. Their lives are centered on their own families, both the small ones with their spouses and the larger ones with their children and grandchildren.
Data on online consumption shows that the amount of money spent by middle-aged and elderly people on family life products ranks second only to apparel, and is increasing year by year. it reached 17.21% at the end of 2014, which is 5% higher than that of the whole population.
In addition, middle-aged and elderly people are willing to buy better quality products for their families, and they are willing to spend money on household products, and they are generous, and their unit price is always higher than that of the whole population.
Real money to "health"
Concerned about the family, middle-aged and elderly people are also increasingly concerned about themselves. In their attention to the online goods, health care products ranked first. When it comes to health care, the first thing that comes to mind is a variety of health care products. Data show that middle-aged and elderly people are concerned about buying health care products, nutritional products and other products, the amount of its proportion is much higher than the whole population.
This is related to the psychology of compensatory consumption: when you're young, you push forward, and when you're old, you naturally want to compensate yourself.
But the era is advancing, the middle-aged and elderly people's consumption concepts have long been upgraded: eating is not enough, exercise and health is more healthy. In the past three years, more and more middle-aged and elderly people buy sports shoes and sportswear, and more and more grandparents running, dancing and practicing Tai Chi in the park.
However, within the middle-aged and old-aged groups, there are differences in the health preferences of different groups of people: men are more athletic, while women prefer to buy nutritional supplements.
Women are clearly more financially capable, and probably mostly manage the books at home, and the amazons are a step ahead, both in terms of dollar share and customer price.
But the big moms are not good at fooling, after all, offline and vendors fighting for decades, experienced, their online shopping skills will also be improved in practice: with the frequency of purchase and the gradual popularization of online shopping, the big moms to buy health care products of the customer price is rapidly declining, and they gradually know how to filter the more cost-effective health care products.
Square dance equipment consumption per capita 437 yuan
Middle-aged and elderly people are concerned about health, but also focus on exercise. And square dancing is seen by many middle-aged and elderly people as a way to exercise and socialize. Even under the red alert haze, the footsteps of the dance of the amazons have not been blocked. The group of square dance moms can be said to have a strong will. And just like young people running, cycling to buy equipment, amazons dance must have a decent line. Then the question comes: a big mom wants to be among the "dance", to "armed" to what extent?
The data show that to achieve the average level of middle-aged and older people (51 to 70 years old) dance equipment, the purchase of a complete set, dance shoes, accessories and performance costumes, big mom to spend 437 yuan.
Third, the online wine world jianghu: brand diversity, women hold up half the sky
White wine fine taste, beer big mouth. In China, wine is present at almost all banquets, where guests talk, raise their glasses, and yell "cheers", which is known as "wine culture". With the rise of the e-commerce industry, the wine industry has also begun to "touch electricity", there is a and offline is not quite the same as the online wine world rivers and lakes.
Alcohol: High-end to popular, more affordable
Alcohol's history is accompanied by Chinese civilization, and it is more likely to capture the hearts of Chinese people than foreign wine and beer.
From 2010 to 2014, white wine has always occupied the largest market share among these three kinds of wine. However, after the introduction of the "Eight Rules", the restriction of public consumption and the ban on drunk driving, the alcohol market has been significantly affected, especially the high-end liquor market. The market sales growth rate of white wine fell rapidly from 54.7% in 2010 to 4.8% in 2014. As a result of this ripple effect, the annual growth rate of liquor production also plummeted from the past double-digit to 6% and 2% in 2013 and 2014, which can be seen as the offline market sales of liquor shifted from a high speed to a low-speed growth mode.
In the main theme of the industry's deep adjustment, the demand for channel change is particularly strong. Baijiu manufacturers have layout e-commerce channels.
In the whole year of 2014, the sales of liquor e-commerce channels reached nearly 1.9 billion yuan. Even more amazing is that in the first half of 2015, sales have reached 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of up to 76% over the same period last year, visible emerging online liquor market is booming.
The traditional offline liquor is mainly higher-priced high-end liquor, and sales are also concentrated in the first and second tier cities. However, the emerging online liquor market has shown different characteristics: from the online purchase of consumer groups, consumers in the fourth-tier cities accounted for 45% of the absolute advantage.
From the point of view of the unit price per transaction, the price of pro-people's white wine is more market, the unit price of 100 to 150 yuan of white wine is the most popular.
This is because of the absolute advantage of the number of fourth-tier consumers, in terms of product price, packaging, concentration and other aspects of the demand, broadening the online low-end market segments, for the price of pro-people second and third-tier liquor brands to provide a rare market hoeing will.
After the e-commerce of white wine, the era of mass consumption has come with price sensitivity, focus on consumer experience, and family drinking and gift-giving as the main scenarios.
Beer: more diversified brands, niche popularity
Compared with liquor, young people preferred beer, due to the temperature, light is sensitive, easy to break in transit, and ready-to-drink drinks, this is a difficult large-scale e-commerce products. However, in recent years, China's beer market tends to be saturated, in the context of the market bleak, the major brands intend to tap into new growth points, have entered the e-commerce platform. Beer, which lacks an e-commerce gene, has shown vigorous vitality online. In August beer sales, for example, 2014 year-on-year growth of 356%, the same period in 2015 increased by 63%, are far more than the total growth of the e-commerce market.
Looking at the online development of beer, we can find that online beer brands are more diverse.
Online sales of beer brands are very rich, just stationed in Tmall brand has more than 200 kinds. But the concentration of the online market is very low, the market share of the top ten online brands is only 62%, while the market share of the top four offline beer brands is more than 70%.
The abundance of brands also brings diversified products. In the Tmall platform, the transaction of active beer brands about 150 kinds, the number of large, far more than the offline. 16 countries and some regions of the product can be online shopping. The taste of beer is also diverse, black spleen white spleen yellow spleen red spleen fruit spleen raw spleen cooked beer, etc., greatly catering to the consumer's personalized consumption needs.
Online liquor consumption: the younger women are, the more they love to buy liquor
Traditionally, buying and drinking liquor is almost exclusively for men. However, online, the purchasing power of women should not be underestimated. At present, men are still the main group of online consumption of liquor, but the proportion of female consumers has also reached 43%.
In addition, the data also shows that several age groups above 25 years old, there are about 30% to 50% of women have bought liquor online, the younger the more love to buy.
The reason for this may be that as young women become more professional, their acceptance of the drinking culture and their consumption habits are rising accordingly, and their attitudes towards drinking liquor are more open.
What's more, most of the current drinking of liquor is for family gatherings and gifts, and women play an important role in this type of planned consumption.
Online beer consumption: female dominant
Online liquor market women occupy half of the market, online beer market, women have become the main consumer.
From the Taobao and Tmall sales situation, in the past six months, the number of women who buy beer is significantly more than men, which in the 25-35 years old online shopping crowd, women accounted for as high as 58%, which is 16 percentage points higher than men.
The main reason is the difference between the consumption scenario of online beer purchasing and online. Waiting at least a day to drink beer is generally not based on some kind of casual instant demand, but more of a planned family consumption reserve like liquor, and women, who are also in charge of the family's daily consumption, become the one who buys the wine.