Report on China's foreign trade situation in the spring of p>212 —— World economic and trade situation I. General situation of current world economic and trade In 211, the world economy continued its recovery trend in 21, but due to multiple factors such as insufficient independent growth momentum, deepening sovereign debt crisis, increasing global inflationary pressure, Japanese earthquake, and turmoil in West Asia and North Africa, the international financial crisis continued to spread and the recovery momentum of the world economy weakened. The latest World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the world economy grew by 3.9% in 211, 1.4 percentage points lower than that in 21. Among them, developed countries increased by 1.6%, while emerging markets and developing countries increased by 6.2%, down by 1.6 and 1.3 percentage points respectively. In 212, the world economic recovery showed positive signals, the US and Japan's economic performance was better than expected, employment, consumption and industrial production picked up, the European sovereign debt crisis was controlled to a certain extent, and the policies for promoting economic growth in emerging economies were strengthened. However, there are still many risks and challenges facing the world economy and financial markets, and the overall weak growth of the world economy has not changed. The sovereign debt crisis in some countries is also difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the space for global fiscal austerity policy continues to narrow. High unemployment rate and high oil prices have become the main obstacles to economic recovery. The prospects for world economic recovery and growth are still uncertain. The IMF predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.5% in 212. Among them, the developed economies will grow by 1.4%, and the euro zone will experience a moderate recession, down by .5%; Economic growth in emerging markets and developing economies slowed to 5.4%. In 211, the growth rate of international trade dropped significantly. According to the latest statistics released by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the global trade in goods increased by 5% in 211, 8.8 percentage points lower than that in 21. Among them, the export volume of developed economies increased by 4.7%, which was lower than the global average growth rate; The export volume of developing countries increased by 5.4%, accounting for 47% of the total global exports, a record high. In 211, the export scale of the United States and the euro zone accounted for a new high in its GDP. Among them, American exports accounted for 14% of its GDP, exceeding the level in 28 and hitting a new high in recent years; For the first time, the proportion of euro zone exports to GDP exceeded the pre-crisis level, and the proportion of German exports to GDP reached 5.1%. As the recovery of the world economy is still full of risks, such as the deepening of the economic recession in the euro zone, the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis, the sharp fluctuation of commodity prices and the geopolitical crisis, the WTO predicts that the export volume of world goods will increase by 3.7% in 212, which is lower than the average level in the past 2 years. Among them, developed economies grew by 2% and developing countries by 5.6%. Despite being dragged down by the slowdown of world economic recovery, the scale of global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows maintained an upward trend in 211, driven by developed countries. According to UNCTAD's estimation, global FDI increased by 16% in 211, reaching $1.66 trillion, exceeding the pre-crisis level, but still 25% lower than the peak in 27. Among them, developed economies grew by 25%; Developing countries decreased by 7%, and the global share of FDI in developing countries and countries with economies in transition decreased from 31% to 26%. In 212, the fragility of the world economic recovery, the European debt crisis and the uncertainty of the international financial market will further affect global FDI. In the first quarter, the scale of greenfield investment and cross-border mergers and acquisitions both declined, and the investment prospect of global FDI in 212 is cautiously optimistic. 2. Issues worthy of attention in the development of world economy and trade 1. The uncertainty and instability of world economic recovery are still relatively large. Recently, the economies of both developed and emerging economies have shown signs of recovery. First, the global manufacturing industry showed positive signals. According to the JPMorgan Chase report, the global manufacturing index (PMI) in February and March 212 was above the threshold of 5, which was 51.2 and 51.1 respectively, and it is expected to continue to grow in April, which indicates that the manufacturing activities of the major economies in the world are generally picking up. The US manufacturing index provided by institute for supply management also increased from 52.4 in February to 53.4, which was stronger than expected. Second, the economic activities of the OECD have increased. In February, the comprehensive leading index of OECD was 1.5, which rose for the fourth consecutive month since November last year, and continued to show a positive signal of economic improvement. Among them, the comprehensive leading index of Japan and the United States is above 11, which continues to lead the signs of economic improvement. The overall comprehensive leading index of the 17 countries in the euro zone is the same as that in January. Third, the global stock market performed well. Due to the growth of the company's actual income, the investment confidence in the stock market has increased since 212, and the global stock market has generally risen. In the first quarter, the US Dow rose 8.1%, while the S&P rose 12%. At present, the recovery of the world economy in 212 is expected to continue, and at least the possibility of another recession should be ruled out. On the whole, however, the basic situation of world economic recovery has not changed. The outbreak and deepening of the international financial crisis have exposed the shortcomings of the current international economy in terms of institutional mechanisms, policy concepts and development methods. The inherent contradictions of the world economy, the sequelae of the international financial crisis and the resulting complications are intertwined. The foundation of world economic recovery and growth is fragile, the prospects are uncertain, and the uncertain and unstable factors are increasing. The recovery process will be long and tortuous. At present, international institutions are not optimistic about the world economy in 212. The United Nations predicts that the world economy will be on the verge of another great recession in 212, and the risk of a double dip will increase. Although the International Monetary Fund raised the global economic growth rate from 3.3% predicted in January to 3.5% this year, it warned that the major risks of global economic growth have not been completely eliminated. The European debt crisis and the potential surge in oil prices may still stifle the fragile economic recovery, and pressures such as fiscal consolidation and bank deleveraging will restrict the strong recovery of developed economies in the short term. 2. The prospect of the European debt crisis is still complicated and changeable. In 211, the European sovereign debt crisis continued to ferment, which led to increased liquidity tension in the European banking industry, weak growth of the real economy, extremely fragile market confidence, and the situation was very serious. In view of this situation, the governments of the euro zone finally reached an agreement and successively introduced a series of emergency relief measures, which achieved certain results. First, the two long-term refinancing operations of the European Central Bank provided more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity to the market, which eased the liquidity pressure of the European banking industry to some extent; At the same time, it also bought heavily indebted bonds many times, which played a positive role in stabilizing the market. Second, the Greek bond swap plan has made important progress, which is expected to reduce the debt burden of about 1 billion euros; The second rescue plan with a total amount of 13 billion euros was approved, and Greece successfully passed the peak of debt repayment in the first quarter. Third, the countries in the euro zone agreed to increase the scale of the "firewall" of European debt, that is, to expand the overall capital ceiling of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to 7 billion euros. Although the short-term risk of European debt has been reduced, the problem has not been fundamentally solved. The Greek economy has been in recession for four consecutive years, and fiscal austerity has weakened the momentum of economic recovery. There is still great uncertainty about debt default. The liquidity of European banking industry has improved, but it still faces many problems such as removing debt leverage and improving capital adequacy ratio. In particular, some banks in southern Europe have more bad debts, and the banking industry still has high risks. At present, Spain, Italy and other countries are still at the peak of debt repayment, especially Spain's weak economic growth and continuous increase in debt, which leads to a rapid and sharp rise in the yield of government bonds, and the market is generally worried that it will become the next country for help. Recently, Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain's long-term sovereign credit rating by two grades, from A to BBB+, with a negative rating prospect. Generally speaking, there are still many variables in the development of the European debt crisis, which is still the biggest risk affecting the recovery of the world economy. 3. International oil prices are still fluctuating at a high level. International oil prices are an important factor affecting the current global economy and financial markets. Since the beginning of this year, the international crude oil price market has fluctuated violently. Mainly affected by the Iranian situation, the global market is increasingly worried about the original supply, coupled with abundant global liquidity, speculative capital speculation and other factors, the international oil price continues to rise, and the price of new york oil once soared to $19.8/barrel, and it is still hovering at a high level above $1/barrel. According to the latest report of the International Energy Agency, the global average daily demand for oil will reach 89.9 million barrels in 212, which is .9% higher than that of last year. The report pointed out that the pressure on the international oil market has eased recently, including the increase in production by OPEC members, Saudi Arabia's commitment to increase supply, stagnant global demand for crude oil, the possible release of strategic reserves by the International Energy Agency and the expected resumption of multi-party talks on the Iranian nuclear issue. The recurring contradiction between supply and demand since 29 has temporarily returned to balance, but the geopolitical worries related to the Iranian nuclear issue have not been eliminated, and the possibility of international oil prices soaring again still exists. Judging from the current situation, the situation in Iran is still the main factor causing price fluctuations in the global crude oil market. With the approaching of Europe and America's crude oil embargo on Iran, the market will still fluctuate to a certain extent, and the international oil price will continue to consolidate at a high level. This will undoubtedly increase the pressure of global inflation, affect the trend of global financial markets, restrict consumer confidence and disposable expenditure of residents, and curb the momentum of global economic recovery. 4. The degree of global liquidity easing has intensified. Recently, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain short-term interest rates close to zero until the end of 214 and continue to loosen monetary policy. The European Central Bank's two long-term refinancing operations provided the market with more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity and maintained the benchmark interest rate of 1% for four consecutive months. Britain will keep its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low of .5%. Japan continues to maintain "zero interest rate", and the Bank of Japan said that it will continue to implement strong monetary easing measures until it achieves the goal of 1% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index. Monetary policy in emerging economies has changed from tight to loose to varying degrees, increasing liquidity to stimulate economic growth. Recently, India lowered the benchmark repo rate from 8.5% to 8%, which is the first time since April 29, and raised the upper limit of marginal loan instrument borrowing in bank demand deposits from 1% to 2%. Brazil lowered its benchmark interest rate from 9.75% to 9%, the sixth consecutive interest rate cut since July 211; Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% for the second consecutive month; South Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25% for the tenth consecutive month; Thailand maintains the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 3%. Further easing of global liquidity may aggravate the disorderly flow of international capital and the large fluctuation of exchange rates of major currencies. Economic and trade prospects of major countries and regions The United States was dragged down by external factors such as the earthquake disaster in Japan and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, as well as internal factors such as high unemployment rate and sluggish consumption. In 211, the real economic growth rate of the United States was 1.7%, which was lower than the growth rate of 3% in 21. In the second half of the year, the economic performance of the United States improved, especially due to the increase in private inventory investment, fixed investment in personal consumption expenditures and residential housing, which led to a 3% economic growth in the fourth quarter, the best quarterly performance in the whole year and the fastest quarterly growth since the second quarter of 21. In 212, the US economy continued to maintain a good recovery momentum. The expansion momentum of domestic manufacturing industry has not diminished. In March, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry was 53.4, which kept the expansion momentum for 32 consecutive months. The job market has improved, domestic consumer demand is booming and consumer spending is optimistic; In February, US exports of goods and services exceeded US$ 18 billion, a record high in a single month. The financial market performed well, with the Dow rising for five consecutive months. At present, the main risks facing the US economy include: First, although the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped from 1% in 29 to 8.2%, the actual number of new jobs is still limited. If the economic recovery occurs repeatedly, the stamina for continuous improvement in the job market is insufficient, and it is more difficult to solve the increasing structural unemployment than to restore cyclical unemployment. Second, external risk constraints have increased. The situation in Iran is confusing, and the American economy is vulnerable to the impact of soaring oil prices. The rise in oil and natural gas prices will also slow down the growth of the American economy. Third, the impact of the European debt crisis on the US economy cannot be ignored. OECD predicts that the U.S. economy will grow at an annualized rate of 2.9% and 2.8% respectively in the first two quarters of 212. The IMF predicts that the US economy will grow by 2.1% in 212, slightly higher than the previous year. The Federal Reserve recently said that the US economy will grow moderately in the next few quarters, and then the growth rate will gradually accelerate. In 211, due to the weak performance of household expenditure, exports and manufacturing, the euro zone economy only grew by 1.4%, down by .5 percentage points from the previous year, with the quarter-on-quarter decline of .3%. The economic growth of heavily indebted countries is generally weak, with Greece's economy falling by 6.9%, Portugal's by 1.5%, and Ireland, Italy and Spain's by only .7%, .4% and .7% respectively. Core countries are still the main driving force of economic growth in the euro zone, with Germany growing by 3.1% and France growing by 1.7%. Since 212, the economic situation in the euro zone has undergone new changes. The European Central Bank has provided a lot of liquidity to the banking system to stabilize the financial market, 25 EU member States have signed financial contracts, and the scale of the European debt "firewall" has been further expanded, all of which have helped to alleviate the pressure of the European debt crisis. At the same time, the growth of external demand brought about by the accelerated economic recovery in countries such as the United States and Japan is also conducive to the economic recovery in the euro zone. However, on the whole, the economic recovery in the euro zone still faces many uncertain and unstable factors, and the moderate recession is difficult to change in the short term. First, the sovereign debt crisis remains the main risk. Greece's debt pressure has eased in the short term, but its long-term solvency is still worrying. The debt problems of Spain and Italy with large economies are also very serious, and the possibility of risk outbreak cannot be ruled out. At the same time, the measures taken by the member countries of the euro zone to tighten fiscal expenditure and deleverage the banking industry in response to the crisis will also weaken the economic growth momentum. Second, the unemployment rate remains high. The unemployment rate in the euro zone continued to climb for eight consecutive months, reaching 1.8% in February, hitting a new record high. The unemployment rate in seven member countries exceeded 1%, and the heavily indebted countries such as Greece and Spain all exceeded 2%. Third, the performance of the real economy tends to be sluggish. In April, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry in the euro zone was 46%, 1.7 percentage points lower than that in March, and it has been in the contraction range of less than 5% for nine consecutive months. The manufacturing PMI of Germany and France were 46.3% and 47.3% respectively, which were both below 5% for two consecutive months. IMF predicts that the euro zone economy will decline by .3% in 212, with Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain dropping by 4.7%, 3.3%, 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. In 211, Japan's economy fell by .7% year-on-year, which was lower than expected. It is noteworthy that due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the appreciation of the yen, the slowdown of world economic growth, the high price of crude oil and other factors, and the earthquake that affected the exports of automobile and other industries, the contribution of external demand to Japan's economic growth declined. According to the latest trade statistics report of Japan's Ministry of Finance, Japan's trade deficit in fiscal year 211 (April 211-March 212) reached 4.4 trillion yen, the highest in a single year since comparable data were available in 1979, and it was also the first time in the past three years. besides