This year is destined to be extraordinary. The tourism and restaurant industries have always been closely related. Both industries require a huge flow of people and physical consumer groups, but the epidemic is still very serious around the world. Therefore, many practitioners in the tourism and catering industry hope that they can recover as soon as possible. When will they get back to normal?

Now, more than half of the restaurants across the country have resumed work, but there are still waiting for diners one after another. It is expected to last for one year, and it will be possible to fully restore the catering industry to its former glory after one year. After all, people are still very sensitive psychologically, and there is a process of accepting and accommodating.

From Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, to Shenzhen and Chengdu, all catering people are hungry. In the long run, the catering industry will definitely undergo great changes. Nowadays, eating out is not only a pleasure but also a charity.

Recently, according to big data statistics from a food delivery platform, the resumption rate of catering businesses across the country has exceeded 55%. With the arrival of the resumption of work, the demand for dining has increased, and catering companies are also resuming operations.

However, reporters have learned from many sources that many open restaurants and hotels in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other places are facing the embarrassment of missing doors.

It is predicted that in the near future, a wave of catering "bankruptcies" sweeping across Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen may be coming.

Beijing: The worst may not happen until next year.

On March 5, 2008, Beijing held the 41st press conference on the prevention and control of the new coronavirus epidemic. In response to the issue of resumption of work in small restaurants, stricter epidemic prevention requirements were put forward for restaurant operations. According to the reporter’s understanding, Beijing’s dining halls are gradually recovering, and some time-honored restaurants such as Quanjude, Tongheju, Huifengjiaozilou, Hongbinlou, BBQ Bay, BBQ Season, Emei Restaurant, Liuquanju, and Shaguoju are also restricting Its dining hall was restored, but restoration was difficult.

A restaurant on Guijie Street in Beijing, picture source: Beijing News

Beijing catering expert Chang Xiaojun told reporters that Beijing’s current controls are quite strict. Most of the restaurants that open restaurants are state-owned brands, and some time-honored brands and fast food restaurants mainly sell to outsiders. At the same time, even if restaurants are open, consumers are afraid to come in to make purchases, resulting in many catering companies still afraid to resume operations.

He believes that with the further control of the epidemic, mid-April will be the "inflection point" for Beijing restaurants to reopen, because the quarantine period for people returning to Beijing has ended at the end of March, and the manpower of catering companies has been guaranteed. . Optimistically, it is possible that most catering companies can resume eating in early May. However, it will still take until the epidemic is completely controlled before consumers can regain their confidence in consumption.

Beijing Guijie Hu Hotel, picture source: Beijing News

Zhang Handong, a catering investor at Beijing Jinyuan Hotel, said that currently only about 10% of restaurants in Beijing have resumed dining, and most of them have resumed dining. It is a state-owned and chain fast food restaurant. However, these stores that have resumed dining are not optimistic because they must follow strict catering service guidelines, and public consumer confidence has not yet been restored. At the same time, hotels, restaurants and other large restaurants have been hit hard as a large number of conferences and wedding banquets have been postponed and cancelled. He believes that based on the current epidemic control situation, the business of banquets may improve in July and August, but business can only be done in September and October when the demand for banquets is high. If we can resume normal operations by the end of the year, it will already be a pretty good achievement. In the worst case scenario, it may not be until next year.

He went on to say that next, some large single-store restaurants in Beijing, especially Cantonese restaurants, may take the lead, because Cantonese restaurants tend to have higher costs in terms of ingredients, labor, rent, etc. Although chain catering companies can persist for a while, overall, the situation is not optimistic.

In the future, catering companies in Beijing

Recently, the Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association issued its "Guidelines for the Resumption of Work, Production and Market of the Catering Service Industry in Shanghai" (Second Edition) It was pointed out that the current resumption rate of catering services in Shanghai is 62.6%. Among the member companies of the Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association, the resumption rate of dinner companies is about 50%, the resumption rate of mass breakfast companies is 80%, and the resumption rate of Chinese fast food and Western fast food is 90%.

But according to rumors on the Internet, many well-known restaurants, such as Balus, Black Stone, Stone Brewing, Wa_Izakaya, Inkood, ZenTsuki Sanzukigiri, PokeLab, Morton Seafood Steak House, Yuan Shizu Shabu-shabu mutton, etc., has been announced to be closed. Not only that, some street restaurants have also posted transfer notices. Some restaurant experts believe this wave of closures may continue to spread.

Teacher Liang, the owner of a Cantonese restaurant in Shanghai, told reporters that the guidelines for the resumption of catering services in Shanghai are relatively loose. However, once business resumes, water, electricity, food, labor and other expenses will still have to be paid and distributed normally. People are afraid to go out for consumption during this period, and there will be no large-scale dinner gatherings in the short term. The restaurant industry is taking longer to recover than other industries.

He believes that Shanghai citizens are currently more interested in taking out food instead of eating in canteens. At present, a steamed bun shop he is familiar with can deliver more than 300 takeaway steamed buns every day, which exceeds the takeaway business before opening the canteen. However, some large restaurants such as bars, western restaurants, restaurants, etc. It's going to be hard to come up with because the rent is high and the cost of reopening is high and it's going to be hard to keep up. There will be a wave of store closures next, and Shanghai's catering industry may face a major reshuffle.

He continued to say that optimistically, the May Day Golden Week is a turning point for Shanghai to fully resume catering. Because the Golden Week holiday has been determined and the epidemic has been brought under control, restaurants that can survive will see a wave of consumption rebound.

Guangzhou: Expected to return to normal levels ahead of schedule.

As early as February 21, various districts in Guangzhou have gradually resumed dining in halls. However, except for some restaurants with tea markets that can resume business at 30-40% of normal times, many restaurants that have resumed dining in the lobby still have less than 30% business.

The reporter found that in places where citizens and tourists "look for food", such as Jiazheng Square, Tianhuan Square, Taikoo Hui and Huifu Road Food Street, the occupancy rate of many restaurants is less than 30%, or even Some stores are still closed. Catering people in Guangzhou generally face the problem of "it is difficult to open a business, and it is also difficult not to open a business".

Mr. Huang, the founder of a well-known Cantonese food brand, believes that the Guangzhou Catering Expo will improve slightly in March, but he is still not optimistic. The bottom line is that restoring consumer confidence will take time. First, the national epidemic growth rate should be zero. Secondly, masks are required across the country. Finally, elementary school is about to start. Only in this way can consumers' confidence in Guangzhou be completely restored. Optimistic estimates suggest that it will not return to normal levels until at least May.

Mr. Chen, a catering expert, said that in the next two months, Guangzhou's catering industry will usher in a "wave of closures." But it’s not that many of them have closed down directly due to the epidemic, but rather their subsequent pressures, such as broken capital chains, reduced market consumption capacity, reduced profits, and even corrections and increases in rents, which may lead to some small restaurants without brand influence. Bankruptcy, some stores of big brands that are difficult to transform have closed down. "Online celebrity stores" that emphasize marketing over products, play with concepts, and speculate on fashion may be the first batch to be eliminated.

Miss Cai, who runs Sichuan cuisine in Guangzhou, told reporters that although the restaurant is open, the 400-square-meter store can only seat less than 12 people according to regulations. The current turnover is only about 3,000 yuan a day, but he still has to pay 4,000 yuan for labor, water, electricity, rent, etc. Every day. If this continues, there will be no money to pay the rent next month and the business will have to close.

However, according to the latest news from the official website of the Guangzhou Municipal Health Commission this afternoon, except for Yuexiu District, which is still a medium-risk area, the rest of the areas are medium-risk areas

According to the reporter’s understanding , Shenzhen’s guidance on restricting restaurant and private room (private room) services for various catering business units (stores) with medium risk prevention and control levels includes:

People must take their temperature before eating; customers are required to wear Masks; the actual number of diners in the lobby shall not exceed 50% of the usual number of people; the dining interval between each table and each batch of customers shall not be less than 10 minutes; customers shall be seated at intervals, staggered and opposite to each other, with an interval of not less than 1m. Fast food restaurants have one table per person. The private room (box) is small, with only one table open, and sharing tables is not allowed.

The situation after the restaurant in a shopping mall in Shenzhen resumed dining, from Shenzhen News Network.

Teacher Deng, who runs a seafood restaurant in Shenzhen, said that currently his store has not resumed operations because seafood consumption is relatively high and the cost of takeout is also relatively high. If he resumes work, all aspects of expenses will suffer greater losses.

He believes that it will be possible to resume business only after the catering prevention and control measures are appropriately relaxed. According to his understanding, it is difficult for the turnover of most catering companies in Shenzhen to resume operations to return to the previous 30%. If this continues, some small restaurants directly affected by the epidemic may be the first to close down, and some catering companies that have subsequent problems due to resumption of work may also close down before the epidemic is over.

Bahlihai Records Chairman Lin told reporters that Bachlihai Records began to resume work one after another at the end of February, and currently 45 of its stores have opened restaurants as required.

Currently, consumers’ enthusiasm for consumption has slightly exceeded expectations, and restaurant sales in most stores have returned to 30% of the previous level. After the restaurant's turnover recovered, the share of takeaways declined. Overall, the turnover recovered by about 45%. He predicts that the most optimistic scenario is that Shenzhen's catering will not return to normal until May, and Caspian Records' business model, which combines catering and takeout, will not be able to return to normal turnover in previous years until June.

Chengdu: Maybe 40% of catering companies will not survive.

Chengdu is also currently resuming catering with restrictions. It is understood that in "low-risk" areas, many hot pot restaurants have begun to resume dining, but they must meet the conditions of "only 50% of the original seats will be opened in the lobby, and the hot pot restaurants will allow consumers to dine at separate tables."

Some hot pot restaurants have also posted prompts such as "sit across tables, limit reception, encourage self-pickup, and support takeout" at the door, and many restaurants have also set standards for dining with less than 4 people at a table. At the same time, we have strict requirements on customers, and there are few large-scale dinners or family dinners.

The decision to resume dining in the lobby at a Chengdu Dalong store was announced by Chengdu.

However, Chengdu catering expert Qiu told reporters that currently only 10% of restaurants in Chengdu have resumed dining, and the occupancy rate of hot pot restaurants will be relatively better. However, in the end, I was still at a loss when it came to resuming my meal. He believes that consumers currently lack consumer confidence. Once a store is opened, the costs of rent, water, electricity, labor and other aspects will be huge.

At the same time, due to the high cost of epidemic prevention and disinfection equipment, most catering companies will still be unable to make ends meet even if they reopen canteens and do takeout.

He continued that according to the current epidemic prevention and control situation, Chengdu's catering may not return to normal until July, because it will take nearly a month for consumers to restore consumer confidence and change consumption habits, and consumers' consumption levels will decline. Next, 40% of catering companies may face store closures.