However, officials are not too optimistic about the rise in pig prices. After all, the pig production capacity in China is too high, and the early piglet production capacity is too high, which is not conducive to the next pig price trend.
So, how should the follow-up market change? Is it rising above 10 yuan or falling to 8 yuan?
0 1, pig price "3 consecutive rises"
Judging from today's market, the average price has risen to 17.69 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0. 14 yuan. 28 monitoring sites ushered in "2 1, 5 levels and 2 drops", which is also the "three consecutive rises" of pig prices, and the market ushered in a higher trend.
From the perspective of Northeast China and North China, Beijing and Tianjin fell by 0. 1 yuan, and the market price was 17.5 yuan/kg; Elsewhere, the price rose by 0. 1-0.2 yuan, and the mainstream price was 16.2- 17.5 yuan/kg. Northwest rose 0.05-0.3 yuan, the mainstream price 15.85- 17.85 yuan/kg. The increase in pig prices in the north is actually affected by the recent increase in external adjustment. However, the acquisition pressure of slaughter enterprises increased, and a wave of price cuts began, which made Beijing and Tianjin fall.
The price of pigs in many places in southern China rose to 9 yuan Pass, and the purchase price of big fat pigs in East China and Southwest China was around 10 yuan. It can be seen that the price of pigs has "broken 9 to 10", and the profits of pig farmers have also increased substantially. A pig can earn about 400-500 yuan.
At present, Zhejiang, Guangzhou and Fujian have exceeded 19 yuan/kg, and Sichuan has also reached 18.9 yuan/kg. Its market is rising, which makes people feel that the "rocket pig" is coming. The increase in pig prices in southern China is mainly due to the increase in demand for bacon, which has led to a significant increase in the number of white pigs recently. At the same time, as the temperature drops, household consumption also increases, pushing the market higher.
Today, the wholesale price of pork has reached 24. 18 yuan/kg, which is the "five consecutive increases" of the pig price, which is 22% higher than that of165438+ in mid-October. The reason why the price of pigs has risen for so long is that the supply of big fat pigs in the market is tight, and the best material for curing bacon is fat pork. However, due to the tight supply of fat pigs in the early stage, the price of pigs began to rise.
As for the northern producing areas, despite the lack of consumer demand, it is more difficult to transport pigs abroad due to snowfall in the northeast and fog in North China. Slaughterhouse wants to buy pigs, so it can only choose to raise prices.
Because of this, the price of pigs has been good recently, which has greatly exceeded 10 yuan. Is "Rocket Pig" really here?
02,3 Adverse warning
Now the profit of live pigs has obviously increased. As the cost of raising pigs drops to 7.5-8 yuan a catty, a standard pig can earn more than 300 yuan, while the average profit of fat pigs is around 500 yuan.
It stands to reason that pig farmers can sell in this market, but because of the mentality of "selling down and not selling up", pig farmers are still unwilling to sell at a very high price. It seems that not selling is a good thing, which can continue to raise the price of pigs, but it also brings risks. Now there are three unfavorable warnings in the pig market, so everyone should be careful.
1, slaughter enterprises continue to depress prices.
Although the slaughter enterprises have been keeping prices down for a month, because pig farmers are reluctant to sell, they can't get too many pigs, especially the acquisition of big pigs is more difficult, so they can only passively raise prices.
At present, slaughter enterprises are caught in two major dilemmas. First, the cost of collecting pigs is high, and it is more difficult to collect pigs. Secondly, the losses have increased. A pig from several slaughter enterprises lost about 100 yuan.
Slaughtering enterprises will also try their best to lower prices and ensure their own profits. At present, the scale of purchasing pigs by slaughter enterprises is obviously reduced, but the amount of frozen meat is increased to curb the rise of fresh meat prices and prevent pig prices from continuing to rise.
2. Increase in output
Officials have repeatedly said that there is no shortage of pigs in China at present, and it is only because of the elimination of big pigs in the early stage and the increase in pork consumption demand in the short term that this high tide is caused.
In fact, in the third quarter of 1-3, the pork output was 39 1.7 million tons, up 38% year-on-year. This figure has also reached the output in normal years, and the annual output is expected to be around 54 million tons. In normal years, the demand is only 50-52 million tons, indicating that the production capacity is still a little high, and the imported pork is nearly 4 million tons, which is to curb the rise in pig prices.
In June, 30.23 million pigs were slaughtered, 5 1.4 million more than in September. It can also be seen that there is no shortage of pigs in the market in June165438+1October. Moreover, the phenomenon of overcapacity will continue until March next year, during which the supply will not be less.
3. "trampling phenomenon"
Recently, market consumption has gradually returned to normal. With the price of pork rising to 15- 19 yuan a catty, the market demand has also weakened. However, it is only 1 many months before the end of the year, and the task of leading pig enterprises has not yet been completed. It is bound to increase the slaughter in 65438+February.
Once a large number of pigs are sold, those small and medium-sized pig farmers will follow suit, thus forming a "stampede phenomenon", and pig prices may usher in a wave of decline.
Therefore, the author thinks that from late February of 165438 to mid-February of 10 +65438, the pig price will continue to be sideways, and the market will remain at 8.5-9.5 yuan/kg, so it is difficult to break through 10 yuan.
From the middle and late February of 12, with the pig enterprises selling a large number of pigs, the pig price will inevitably "go down the stairs", and the pig price may drop to 8-8/ kg in 5 yuan. Therefore, pig farmers should be rational and not blindly bullish on the follow-up market. what do you think?