As of1February 10, the price of pigs has been "falling for four consecutive days". Obviously, the decline of pig prices is directly related to the price reduction of slaughter enterprises, but the reasons behind it are not so simple.
First, the price of pork first fell.
10, after the price of pork fell to single digits, it started the mode of crazy consumption of pork, and the subsequent enema and meat hoarding also drove the price of live pigs to rise obviously. At the same time, with the surge of consumption, the price of meat also rose rapidly. In just over a month, the price of meat rose from single digits to 15~ 18 yuan/kg, and even rose to 20 yuan/kg in some areas.
The increase in meat prices has restrained consumption to some extent. On February 2nd,/kloc-0, pork prices dropped for the first time, down by 0.6% from the previous month 1 day, which also ended the trend of pork prices rising for seven weeks. The decline in meat prices reveals an obvious signal: the supply of pork in the market has obviously exceeded the demand. Among them, the suppression of demand by the rebound in meat prices is only one of the reasons, and more importantly, the increase in pork supply in the market.
Second, farmers "fall into the bag for safety"
One of the important reasons for the increase in pork supply is the increase in farmers' willingness to slaughter. Although the game between farmers and slaughter enterprises was fierce before, with the decline of consumption, the subsequent market risk increased, and pig breeding was at a loss for most of this year. At this time, combined with the weakening consumption and the price reduction of slaughter enterprises, many farmers will not be "hard-pressed", but will choose to take advantage of the trend and settle down. After all, this year is really scary.
On the other hand, by the end of the year, all large-scale pig farms have the task of slaughtering. At present, the slaughter of large-scale enterprises is increasing, but the overall growth has not yet been comprehensive, so it has not yet had a key impact on the market.
Third, the "clearing" and "reducing" of slaughter enterprises
In addition to the increase of farmers' willingness to slaughter, the supply of pork in the market has increased, and another reason is the clearing of frozen goods inventory. The high inventory of frozen products in slaughter enterprises is also a feature of this year's pig market. The frozen meat purchased in the early stage needs to be taken out of the warehouse when the meat price rises. At the same time, by the end of the year, slaughter enterprises also have the will to "reduce their stocks", so the acquisition volume will also decline. So the superposition of the two also increased the meat supply in the market in disguise.
Fourth, can the price of pigs still rise?
Although with the increase of pork supply and the weakening of consumption, the price of pigs has been "falling for four consecutive days", at present, the cured meat has not completely ended, and the price difference between the market fat pigs and the standard pigs still exists, and the price of fat pigs is still high.
Moreover, from previous years, the winter solstice is often an important solar term for preserved meat, so it is not excluded that there is still some consumption support during the winter solstice this year. Therefore, although the current pig price continues to fall, there is still a chance to rise. However, it needs to be clear that the probability of a sharp rise is already very small, and the subsequent pig price is likely to fluctuate between 8 and 9 yuan.