1, main properties and classification of caustic soda

The scientific name of caustic soda is sodium hydroxide (NaOH), commonly known as caustic soda and caustic soda. It is highly corrosive and easily soluble in water (when dissolved in water, it gives off heat) to form an alkaline solution, and it is easy to absorb water vapor in the air for deliquescence, and carbon dioxide for qualitative change. Caustic soda is the basic chemical raw material of national economy, and it is one of the "three acids and two alkalis" together with soda ash. According to the existing forms, caustic soda can be divided into two types: liquid caustic soda and solid caustic soda, in which solid caustic soda is white, with lumps, flakes, rods and granules. Liquid alkali is colorless and transparent liquid. According to different mass fractions, liquid caustic soda can be divided into 30%, 32%, 45%, 48%, 49%, 50%, etc. At present, the mainstream specification of low-concentration caustic soda in China is 32% ionic membrane caustic soda, and the mainstream specification of high-concentration caustic soda is 50% liquid caustic soda. Solid caustic soda can be divided into 73%, 95%, 96%, 98.5%, 99%, 99.5%, etc. The domestic solid caustic soda market is mainly flake caustic soda. At present, liquid caustic soda accounts for more than 80% in the market, and the output of caustic soda with different specifications varies greatly among provinces and cities. Because solid caustic soda is easy to store and transport, its sales radius is larger than that of liquid caustic soda. In northwest areas such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, its cost is low, but the local downstream demand is limited, so more solid caustic soda is produced and sold at a long distance. In Shandong and Jiangsu, however, liquid caustic soda is mainly produced, and there are many downstream enterprises in the main cities, among which 32% caustic soda is the main one, followed by 50% caustic soda, and most of the solid caustic soda is imported from other places;

2. Caustic soda industry chain

Caustic soda is one of the main products produced by chlor-alkali enterprises. Its main raw materials are raw salt and electricity. The fluctuation range of raw salt price is limited, which has little influence on the price of caustic soda. The price of electricity is relatively stable due to the macro-control of the state, which can basically be regarded as a fixed variable. The downstream of caustic soda is distributed in chemical industry, pulp production and papermaking, printing and dyeing and chemical fiber, metallurgy, soap and detergent, environmental protection and other national economic industries. In the chemical field, caustic soda is one of the important raw materials for producing polycarbonate, epoxy resin, sodium phosphate, sodium sulfite and sodium salt. In the field of pulp and paper industry, caustic soda is used as an assistant to remove non-cellulose from paper and neutralize organic acids to improve paper quality. In the field of printing and dyeing and chemical fiber industry, caustic soda can be used as a water softener to improve the dyeing rate and uniformity in printing and dyeing, and can also be used as a desizing agent to wash away inorganic impurities in cotton fibers. In the metallurgical field, caustic soda transforms the effective components in ore into soluble sodium salts to remove insoluble impurities (alumina is the main application field). In the field of washing, oil is generally saponified under the action of caustic soda to make soap. In the field of environmental protection, caustic soda is mainly used in water treatment industry to reduce the hardness and adjust the PH value of water through neutralization reaction.

3 production process of caustic soda

The production of caustic soda is mainly electrolytic method, and the main raw material is raw salt. Compared with causticization method, it has great advantages in supply stability and price. According to the structure of electrolyzer and the difference between electrolytic materials and diaphragm materials, electrolytic methods are divided into diaphragm method, mercury method and ion exchange membrane method. Mercury method has been eliminated because of its great pollution to the environment. Diaphragm method is basically eliminated in China because of high energy consumption and low product quality. Ion-exchange membrane technology is the mainstream production method in the world today. The production capacity of ion-exchange membrane technology accounts for 99.65% of the total production capacity in China market. Its technological process is mainly divided into six processes: rectification, brine refining, electrolysis, chlorine and hydrogen treatment, liquid alkali evaporation and solid alkali production.

Second, the caustic soda supply end

1, raw material end

1. 1 crude salt industry

China is rich in salt resources, with North China, East China and Central China as the main salt-producing areas. Among them, the main producing areas of sea salt are Shandong, Tianjin and Jiangsu; The main producing areas of lake salt are Qinghai and Inner Mongolia; The main producing areas of well salt are Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi and Sichuan and Chongqing. In 2010-2014, driven by the rapid increase in the demand of caustic soda and soda ash downstream, the price of raw salt remained at a high level, and the output increased year by year; In 2015-2016, due to the supply-side structural reform and environmental protection supervision, the downstream demand of raw salt decreased, and the price of raw salt continued to fall, resulting in a decline in output; In 2017-2019, the prosperity of the downstream industry of raw salt improved, the price rebounded and the output increased; In 2020-2021year, stimulated by global public health events, the impact of imported salt weakened, and the price of raw salt rose sharply, which stimulated the production enthusiasm of raw salt enterprises and increased the output of raw salt.

1.2 electric power

Chlor-alkali production is a high energy-consuming industry, and the power consumption per ton of caustic soda produced is about 2230 ~ 2400 kW h, accounting for about 60% of the total cost of caustic soda production. Therefore, electricity price is the most critical factor affecting the operating profit of caustic soda enterprises, and chlor-alkali production enterprises with their own power plants have comparative advantages in cost. In order to facilitate the comparative analysis of caustic soda production cost, the metric electrochemical unit cost (ECU) is usually used for accounting. 1 electrochemical unit (ECU)= 1 caustic soda +0.886 chlorine.

The cost of chlor-alkali enterprises is closely related to their location. The cost of basic materials and labor in eastern coastal areas is slightly higher than that in inland areas, and the cost of environmental protection increases accordingly, so chlor-alkali projects are limited. The western region is rich in coal, raw salt, electricity, lime and other resources, and there are relatively cheap labor costs. The development of chlor-alkali projects has great cost advantages, and the average cost of ECU in Inner Mongolia is about 700 cheaper than that in the coastal areas. Therefore, in recent years, the focus of chlor-alkali capacity expansion in China has shifted to the northwest, mainly from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Tianjin to Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.

2. Capacity and output

Influenced by the support of national policies and the sharp increase in demand, the capacity and output of caustic soda in China increased rapidly in 2010-20 14, with an average annual growth rate of about 7%, and the average annual growth rate of output was 1 1%. In 2014, the national caustic soda capacity was 39.2 million. From 20 15 to 2022, the overall growth rate of caustic soda production capacity in China slowed down, with an average annual growth rate of only 2.2%. In 2015, both the capacity and output of caustic soda showed negative growth. On the one hand, chlor-alkali was seriously unbalanced, chlorine gas was easy to produce but difficult to sell, and the pace of increasing production in caustic soda industry slowed down. On the other hand, with the structural reform on the supply side and the stricter environmental inspection, some non-compliant chlor-alkali enterprises passively quit, resulting in a part of production capacity loss. By the end of 2022, the production capacity of caustic soda in China was 45.54 million tons and the output was 39.47 million tons.

The distribution of domestic caustic soda production capacity and output is basically the same, which is concentrated in North China, Northwest China and East China, accounting for 35%, 24% and 20% respectively. Production areas are related to demand and cost, such as alumina industry in the lower reaches of caustic soda in North China, textile printing and dyeing and paper industry in the lower reaches of caustic soda in East China, and rich resources such as raw salt and coal in the northwest. In terms of provinces, Shandong has the largest production capacity, accounting for 26%, followed by Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu Province, and the total production capacity of caustic soda in the three provinces accounts for 43% of the national total production capacity.

There are more than 60 caustic soda production enterprises in China *** 160, and the concentration of production capacity is not high. At present, there are only 4 enterprises with production capacity above1000,000 tons, accounting for 2.4% of the enterprises and 0.4% of the production capacity. There are 20 production enterprises with a production capacity of 500 ~1000000 tons, accounting for 27.9% of the total production capacity, mainly concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Henan. There are 37 production enterprises with a production capacity of 300,000-500,000 tons, with a total production capacity of13.35 million tons, accounting for 29.4% of the total production capacity; The remaining production capacity is below 300,000 tons.

At present, enterprises tend to take the road of industrial chain integration. As another product of chlor-alkali industry mentioned in the industrial chain above is liquid chlorine, which is hazardous and difficult to transport and store, most of them will be equipped with chlorine consumption devices, and some caustic soda enterprises will be equipped with downstream alkali consumption devices and self-provided power plant devices to reduce costs. At present, there are 127 downstream chlorine consumption facilities in caustic soda enterprises, accounting for 77%; There are 32 downstream supporting facilities with alkali consumption, accounting for 20%; There are 78 production enterprises supporting their own power plants, accounting for 48%; There are 30 production enterprises with raw salt, accounting for 18%.

Third, caustic soda demand side

China is a big producer and consumer of caustic soda. Since 20 10, the apparent demand for caustic soda in China has maintained rapid and steady growth. With 20 15 as the boundary, it can be divided into two stages: rapid growth period and stable growth period. In 2010-2014, the annual demand for caustic soda in China increased from 1934. 1 10,000 tons to 29.8 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of more than 1 1.0%. In 20 15, influenced by the supply-side structural reform of chemical industry and environmental protection policies, the caustic soda industry and some downstream industries all carried out structural adjustment of supply-side reform, and both the output and demand of caustic soda showed negative growth. From 2016 to 2021year, the demand for caustic soda in China entered a period of steady growth. The annual demand increased from 30.935 million tons to 37.484 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.7%. In 2022, exports increased significantly, which led to a slight decrease in apparent consumption.

The downstream of caustic soda in China is mainly distributed in industries such as alumina, chemical industry, paper making, printing and dyeing chemical fiber, water treatment, light industry, medicine, etc. In recent years, the industries with higher demand growth in the downstream of caustic soda mainly include alumina, chemical fiber and other industries, while the demand in the printing and dyeing industry has shrunk due to the transformation and upgrading of some enterprises. From the distribution of downstream demand areas, the largest demand for caustic soda in North China accounts for 36%, followed by East China accounts for 25%; In 2022, the proportion of alumina in the downstream of caustic soda will reach 35%, so the alumina industry has an obvious driving effect on the regional demand for caustic soda. For example, Shandong, Shanxi, Guangxi, Henan and Guizhou provinces are the provinces with concentrated alumina production. Printing and dyeing and chemical fiber (viscose) are the second largest demand industries for caustic soda, accounting for 2 1%, while printing and dyeing and chemical fiber industries are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Xinjiang. Pulping and papermaking accounts for 13% in the downstream of caustic soda. Pulping and papermaking industries are mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other places, and these four provinces account for about 65% of the total demand for caustic soda in the papermaking industry. In addition, the downstream chemical industry of caustic soda is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hebei and other places, which account for about 60% of the total demand of caustic soda in the chemical industry.

Iv. Domestic caustic soda trade and import and export

The main producing areas of caustic soda in China are located in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Xinjiang and Zhejiang, and the main selling areas are located in Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Henan, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Hebei and Guangdong. Therefore, the main domestic trade flows from west to east and from north to south, and the main net transfer areas include Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Tianjin. The main net transfer areas include Shanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou. Among them, most of the solid alkali in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia flows to East China, South China, Southwest China and Central China through special train lines. In addition to supplying alumina, paper-making and chemical enterprises in Shandong, most of the liquid caustic soda flows to neighboring provinces by steam transportation.

There are many transportation modes of caustic soda, such as iron transportation, automobile transportation, water transportation and pipeline transportation. In liquid caustic soda transportation, it is mostly used for sales in the province and surrounding provinces, and the radius is generally within 300km. If it exceeds, it will be replaced by water transportation. There is no limitation on the transportation radius of solid alkali, and the transportation mode is more diversified. Generally speaking, among the three common modes of transportation, the cost of water transportation is the lowest, followed by railway transportation, and the cost of automobile transportation is relatively high. The cost of automobile transportation within 300km of the province and its neighboring provinces is 200 ~ 250 yuan/wet ton, and the cost of water transportation from Shandong to Guangdong fluctuates between 230 ~ 320 yuan/wet ton according to the size of ships.

China is a net exporter of caustic soda. In 2022, China exported about 3.247 million tons of caustic soda, imported about 0.89 million tons, and the net export was close to 3.24 million tons. Except in 2022, China's caustic soda exports and imports accounted for a small proportion of total consumption. In 20 1 0-2017, China's caustic soda imports were basically stable at the level of about110,000 tons. In 20 18, China's caustic soda imports increased significantly, mainly because the domestic price of caustic soda rose significantly, and foreign low-priced caustic soda took advantage of the trend and began to export in 2022, so the import volume decreased significantly. The import volume of solid alkali in China is relatively stable, the main source country is Japan, and the rest are Poland and Thailand.

During the period of 20 10-202 1 year, the export volume of caustic soda in China was around1500,000 tons. In 2022, due to the domestic price advantage, the export volume of solid caustic soda was relatively stable, basically fluctuating from 400,000 tons to 700,000 tons, so the fluctuation of liquid caustic soda export volume affected caustic soda. Among China's caustic soda exporters, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia and Africa are the main destinations for solid caustic soda, while Australia, China, Taiwan Province, Viet Nam, India, the United States and Southeast Asian countries are the main destinations for liquid caustic soda. China's long-term solid alkali export enterprises mainly include Xinjiang Zhongtai, Xinjiang Tianye, Shandong Binhua and Inner Mongolia Junzheng, which are close to exporting countries and have convenient logistics in Xinjiang and Shandong. Long-term liquid alkali export enterprises include Shanghai chlor-alkali, Xinpu Chemical, Shuangshi Chemical (Zhangjiagang), Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) and Tianjin Dagu. Because the domestic caustic soda market is well supplied, it can better meet the domestic market demand, so the annual import of caustic soda is very small, and the status of a net exporter of caustic soda in the future will not change in the short term.

V. Global supply and demand of caustic soda

From 20 1 1-202 1 year, the global caustic soda production capacity increased from 82.6 million tons to 99.74 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 2%; Global caustic soda production increased from 64.43 million tons to 79.5 million tons. From the production process, the ion exchange membrane process accounts for about 83%; The diaphragm process accounts for about14%; In the global caustic soda market, Asia accounts for 63%, followed by North America and Europe, accounting for 16% and14% respectively; In 20021year, the global market demand for caustic soda was 82 million tons, mainly concentrated in Asia, Europe and North America, accounting for 58%, 13% and1/respectively.

Due to the imbalance between supply and demand of caustic soda and the existence of price difference, the international trade of liquid caustic soda and solid caustic soda is more active. In 20021year, the global trade volume of caustic soda was about16.94 million tons, of which liquid caustic soda was about15.3 million tons and solid caustic soda was about1640,000 tons. The global caustic soda outflow places are mainly the United States, Northeast Asia, Western Europe and the Middle East, and the main destinations are South America, Oceania, Canada, Europe, Southeast Asia and Africa. In the future, the United States, China, the Netherlands and Belgium will remain the most important exporters, and the growth of caustic soda production capacity will mainly occur in the United States and Europe. Southeast Asia, Africa and South America are the regions where the demand for caustic soda will increase rapidly in the future.

VI. History and future development of domestic caustic soda industry

Judging from the recent 10 market, caustic soda has experienced two rounds of ups and downs, which are mainly divided into the following stages:

In the third quarter of 20 12-in the first half of 2016, caustic soda fell: the capacity of caustic soda industry expanded rapidly, and the supply and demand were unbalanced. Downstream alumina, printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, chemical industry and other industries are tired, especially alumina, on the one hand, has a large-scale production reduction due to its own downturn; On the other hand, the export of Indonesian bauxite is restricted, which leads to the insufficient operating rate of alumina in China, and the net demand for caustic soda is obviously reduced.

In the second half of 20 16-20171month, caustic soda rose: affected by supply-side reform and environmental protection policies, chlor-alkali plants with poor profitability and sustained losses began to withdraw, involving caustic soda production capacity1035,000 tons, and the supply decreased significantly, which stimulated to some extent.

20 17 years 1 1 month-202 1 year1month caustic soda decline: the direct impact of environmental protection on chlor-alkali enterprises gradually weakened, and the average start-up of chlor-alkali in China continued at about 85%, and the start-up of bauxite was limited due to environmental supervision in the downstream alumina industry; Printing and dyeing, viscose fiber and other industries are blocked from exporting due to Sino-US trade disputes; At the beginning of 2020, the demand for caustic soda was once depressed due to the impact of global public health incidents. Due to the underemployment of many downstream industries and poor profitability, the demand for caustic soda began to shrink, and the market structure changed from short supply to oversupply, and the price of caustic soda dropped sharply.

202 1 Feb.-2021End of the year: The macro-economic development and various unexpected factors are more influential to the development of caustic soda. In the first half of the year, due to the cold wave in the United States, the high price of raw material industrial salt, and the promotion of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutralization in China, the start-up of caustic soda enterprises was obviously limited. In the second half of the year, under the influence of the strengthening of national "double control" and the adjustment of power policy, the price of supporting caustic soda rose sharply to a high level in the past decade. However, with the restriction of thermal coal, the price went down at the end of 20021.

Since the beginning of 2022, the price of chlor-alkali industry has remained at a high level. At the beginning of 2022, thanks to the downstream recovery and the support of raw salt prices, caustic soda rose again. However, the outbreak of the Shanghai epidemic in April 2022 and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in June led to a fall in commodity prices, and the traditional demand season rebounded in September. However, with the increase of supply in the traditional peak season, the price fell again. Focus on demand-side recovery in 2023.

From a long-term perspective, chlor-alkali industry has the characteristics of high energy consumption, great environmental impact and high investment cost. Although China's current production technology has reached the advanced level in the world, the production cost is still higher than that in the Middle East and North America. In the future, China's chlor-alkali industry will mainly develop in the following aspects:

(1) The sustainable development policy has become stricter. It is embodied in specific industrial policies such as energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection policies, standardizing and restricting the development of energy-intensive industries, canceling preferential policies for electricity prices to achieve differential electricity prices and industry access. It is difficult for the total production capacity to increase greatly in the next few years.

(2) Improve the entry threshold for enterprises. The threshold of newly-built caustic soda plant in China is 300,000 tons by ion exchange membrane method, and the industrial concentration is constantly developing.

(3) Optimize raw materials and technical routes to promote product structure adjustment. By increasing the clean technology research and development and transformation of the traditional chlorine product production process, we will continue to develop high value-added and differentiated products that consume alkali, chlorine and hydrogen, and further broaden the application fields of products.