Since March 2020, cotton prices have rebounded by more than 50%. As the marginal growth rate of textile and clothing demand slows down, the transmission of raw material prices is blocked, and cotton may exchange time for space and adjust its strength, waiting for the peak season of production and sales.
Since June, the cotton price has entered an accelerated rising stage, and broke through the previous high point on August 16, in which the main contract of cotton futures hit a three-year high, which was almost equal to the highest price in June/20 19250 yuan/ton, and the main cotton in the United States was almost equal to that in February/200218. However, at present, the downstream market is in the off-season, and the rising prices of raw materials make it difficult for downstream enterprises to take orders, and some weaving, printing and dyeing enterprises lose money and limit production. Macroeconomic indicators also show signs of inflection point, high commodity inflation has emerged, and the economy will slow down quarter by quarter.
The growth rate of added value of textile industry slowed down, which was lower than the average level.
According to the latest data from the Bureau of Statistics, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year in July (the following growth rates of added value are all real growth rates after deducting price factors), which was11.5% higher than the same period of 2019, with an average growth rate of 5.6% in two years. From the ring comparison, in July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.3% compared with the previous month; From June 5438 to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 14.4% year-on-year, with an average growth of 6.7% in two years. In terms of textile industry, the added value of textile industry decreased 1.0% in July, and increased by 6.6% in June-July.
In recent years, the growth trend of added value of domestic textile industry is consistent with that of industrial added value, and the correlation coefficient between them is 0.79. As can be seen from their charts, the textile industry and the whole industry will recover steadily in 2020. However, since 20021,the growth rate of overall industrial added value has been high before and then low, and the growth rate of textile industry lags behind the growth rate of overall industrial added value by 8.54 percentage points on average.
Internal consumption clothing recovered well, but the growth rate dropped significantly this year.
From the consumption side, the latest data from the Bureau of Statistics show that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in July was 3,492.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; Compared with July 2065438+2009, it increased by 7.2%, with an average growth rate of 3.6% in two years. Among them, the retail sales of social consumer goods other than automobiles was 3157.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%. After deducting the price factor, the total retail sales of social consumer goods actually increased by 6.4% in July.
From June 5438 to July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 24,682.9 billion yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 4.3% in two years. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was 22 163 1 100 million yuan, an increase of 20.2%.
Specifically in the field of textiles and clothing, the correlation coefficient between the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitted textiles is 0.85, with a high degree of correlation. In July, the consumption of clothing, shoes, hats and textiles was 94.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; From June 5438 to July, the consumption of clothing, shoes, hats and textiles was 767.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%. Domestic clothing consumption recovered well after the epidemic, but this year's growth rate dropped from 69. 1% in March to 7.5% in July, with a decrease of 6 1.6%, and consumption in some areas was lowered.
The growth rate of textile and garment exports turned from rising to falling.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from June 5438 to July this year, the national textile and clothing export 16835 billion US dollars, up 7.7% year-on-year (RMB decreased by 0.9%), and the growth rate dropped by 4.4 percentage points compared with the first half of this year. Among them, textile exports reached US$ 80.25 billion, down 10.8% year-on-year (down17.9% in terms of RMB); Clothing exports reached US$ 88,654.38 billion, up 32.9% year-on-year (up 22.2% year-on-year in terms of RMB).
In July, China exported US$ 28.27 billion of textiles and clothing to the world, down 9.5% year-on-year (down 18. 1% in RMB). Among them, textile exports11.70 billion US dollars, down by 26.7% year-on-year (down by 33.6% in RMB terms), but increased by 8.6% compared with the same period before the epidemic (20 19). In July, China's clothing exports continued to maintain a good growth trend. The export value of the month was US$ 65.438+0.658 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year (down 2.0% in terms of RMB) and up 9.4% quarter-on-quarter.
With the improvement of the epidemic situation, China's medical supplies exports declined rapidly, and the growth rate of traditional textile and garment exports still maintained a positive growth in a single month, but the increase in sea freight and raw material prices eroded corporate profits. According to Zhuo Chuang information research, some textile enterprises with complete industrial chain said that although there is no shortage of orders in the market, the prices of raw materials and sea freight continue to rise, and the profit from order processing is meager. Enterprises began to selectively take orders for production. Due to the obvious decline in orders, some textile factories and cloth factories under some enterprises switched to differentiated products, some printing and dyeing factories stopped production, and sewing factories also limited production to varying degrees.
The sales cycle of textile and garment industry is obvious. According to customs data, China's textile and clothing exports have two peaks in a year, corresponding to the export peaks of spring and summer clothing and autumn and winter clothing respectively. Correspondingly, the front-end links of garment production, such as spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing, also have obvious cycle characteristics, and the time is relatively advanced. At present, the market is in the low season of traditional demand, and cotton spinning enterprises generally choose raw materials while using them. Some enterprises are eagerly awaiting the heavy orders in September and June, 65438+ 10.
Short-term cotton prices may be adjusted back to Xu Li
To sum up, at present, cotton prices at home and abroad are at a high level, but the transmission of the industrial chain is not smooth, the price of gauze is struggling to keep up, and the situation of terminal accumulation and limited production in the textile industrial chain reappears. Macroscopically, China is facing the situation of high temperature, heavy rain and scattered areas. The growth rate of major indicators of the national economy has declined year-on-year, and affected by the base, the annual growth rate of major economies may be high before and low after. The unemployment rate in the United States has fallen sharply. Under the pressure of high inflation, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to heat up, and the international crude oil price has dropped at a high level. In the short term, we should guard against the negative feedback of the industrial chain, which will lead to the fall of cotton prices. From a longer period, cotton is currently in a bull market, and it is expected that new flowers will be harvested in the peak demand season in September and June, 65438+ 10. After the cotton price is properly adjusted in the off-season, the future increase may be even more impressive.
This article comes from Zhuo Chuang Information.