Pig price danger signals
According to the pig much data show that on September 5, 2022 pig price trend suddenly changed, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Hebei, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Henan, Hunan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hainan, Sichuan, Yunnan **** as many as 16 provinces and cities, the price of pigs fell!
The color change of the national pig price map, which is a visual representation of the price of pigs in September "danger signals"! If today's pig prices have been "up", the future with the surge in production capacity, I'm afraid that the "sharp turn down" is not impossible! Because in the high price of hogs under the stimulus, sober only a few people, and the rate of increase in production is more than most people expected!
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development released data warning, in July the number of newborn piglets in the national large-scale farms increased by 0.4%, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year; in July the large-scale farms in the large pig inventory increased by 0.5%, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.
For farmers who are optimistic about year-end pig prices, the number of piglets in July is the most critical, as it corresponds to the supply of hogs during the Spring Festival! But even during last year's Spring Festival, the price of pigs was only about 7.5 yuan / catty; now the number of piglets in July than last year's jump of 7.5%, in this year's Spring Festival hog supply will have a substantial increase in the basis of pig prices have become more and more dangerous to go lower!
In addition, the 4th week of August, the national average price of piglets 44.30 yuan / kg, down 0.4% from the previous week.
It can be seen that piglet prices are rapidly cooling! But why is there a price drop when the current time is the best for the industry's confidence in future pig prices? Essentially it's still the piglet numbers that are surging!
"Severe shortage of pigs" has become a thing of the past
More importantly, behind the surge in piglet numbers is the "Chinese speed" of recovery in pig production capacity! Many people do not understand, obviously before the industry "to capacity momentum" lasted more than a year, why now just two or three months, capacity is said to recover on the recovery!
The National Bureau of Statistics released data show that in the first quarter of this year, the country's hog slaughtered 196 million head, has realized a year-on-year growth of 14.1%; April began to be affected by the increase in the supply of piglets, hog inventories for four consecutive months of year-on-year increase! And since May, the national breeding sow inventory has increased for 3 consecutive months! It can be seen that a large number of farms have certain expectations for this year's market rebound, so they have prepared a large number of reserve sows in order to realize the production capacity of the "recovery on the recovery"!
The reason why the last round of pig cycle "go to capacity" lasted for more than a year, proving that many pig enterprises to go to capacity willingness is not high, but only in the pig price under the impetus of gradual "contraction of production capacity" or "optimization of production capacity! "
Moreover, the company has been working on a number of new products and services.
What can't be ignored is that this reflects the fact that China's pig industry "serious shortage of pigs" is becoming a thing of the past! On the one hand, the capacity recovery speed is very fast, on the one hand, the state "control capacity" system plays a substantial role, many pig enterprises will be issued by the relevant departments of the warning and red line under the control of production capacity, and no longer before the "big dive type to capacity"!
Muyuan, Wen's, Tangrenshen... First out of the gate
When this time, the pastoral first announced that with the recovery of hog prices in the early period, the company's cash flow continued to improve, the company on a small part of the breeding project resumption of construction, involving farming capacity of about 3 million heads, is expected to the end of this year, the company's hog farming capacity of up to 75 million heads or so!
A stone stirred up a thousand waves, pastoral 75 million head of production capacity once realized, it means that only one of their hog enterprises, they can occupy 11.17% of the national hog market!
In addition, Wen's, Tangrenshen, Aonong, Jingji Zhinong, Dongrui and other pig enterprises have increased their slaughtering targets.
Wen's preliminary plan for 2022 farrowing is 18-20 million head, with another 8-10 million head next year.
Tang expects to slaughter about 2 million head this year, while it plans to slaughter 3.5 million head in 2023 and raise it to 5 million head in 2024.
Aonong Bio plans to slaughter 8 million head in 2023 and 10 million head in 2024.
Dongrui plans to slaughter about 1.2 million heads in 2023 and 1.8 million heads in 2024, thus realizing a slaughtering capacity of 2 million heads in three years.
Shennong Group plans to slaughter 1 million head this year and 1.5 million head in 2023.
Jingji Zhinong plans to slaughter more than 2 million head in 2023.
Together with Zhengbang's plan to slaughter 10 million hogs this year, the above hog enterprises alone can occupy 17% of the national market, according to the estimation of 671 million hogs slaughtered nationwide in 2021 announced by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development! It can be seen that China's pig industry scale development of the progress of the fast, but this rapid scale of the market has two major consequences: First, the pig enterprises only want to hit the river, do not want to lose the river, therefore prolonging the trough period of the pig cycle; the second is the technology, the capacity of the growth of the speed of the fastest, shorten the industry's high profit period, and even reduce the overall profit of the industry!
The crisis is not far away!
It is obvious that the total slaughtering capacity of major hog enterprises in 2023 will still grow by tens of millions of head on the basis of this year! With the capacity of small and medium-sized farmers not decreasing or even growing, it is feared that the supply of hogs will reach a new peak next year!
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, also pointed out that the previous 19-month decline in hog prices was mainly due to overcapacity.
Currently, China's hogs have shifted from oversupply to a basic balance, but breeding sows are slightly above normal holdings, meaning that hog prices are unlikely to rise sharply in a row in the later stages.
Today's supply of hogs has been enough, most farmers in the industry are in a profitable state, but if you continue to ramp up production, the current "everyone can earn" state is bound to be broken! Many people say that the pig cycle to "4 years a cycle", but external factors will greatly affect the process of the pig cycle, if we all hold "4 years a cycle" of fluke, that next year the price of pigs must be very good, I'm afraid that it must not be good to go!
In the first half of this year, just to smell a little bit of "market warming" signals, pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry meat production increased by 5.3% year-on-year, of which pork production increased by 8.2%! And now a lot of people make money, it is more gallantly expand production forward, do not "good scars forget the pain"!
Plus, now the high price of corn, soybean meal up to break through 4700 yuan / ton! With the growth of hog production capacity, Europe and the United States grain production reduction, the future feed prices will also rise! So the crisis is not far away, in fact, every loss of money crisis, are making money when the mines buried.
Some people say that the state should stop subsidies, so that farmers and pig enterprises to compete fairly, but the pig enterprises but also really brought "genetic improvement, equipment upgrades, digital development" and other progress, you think the incentives for large-scale pig enterprises is more harm than good or more good than harm?
Single choice|Is the incentive to subsidize large-scale pig enterprises more harm than good or more good than bad?
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