Agency: Market bullish sentiment cools down

According to Boya Hexun statistics, the national average pig price this week was 15.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.34 yuan; the self-bred slaughter loss was 149.75 yuan Yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 3.38 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 218.53 yuan; outsourcing breeding profit for slaughter was 53.21 yuan/head, a month-on-month increase of 12.30 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.59 yuan.

We observed a fluctuating rise in pig prices in May, but the actual increase was not large. The national average pig price at the end of May was 15.69 yuan/kg, which was only an increase of 7.8 yuan from the end of April. The breeding side’s optimistic expectations for the market outlook were at the Dragon Boat Festival It has dissipated before the holiday, although large-scale markets continue to control volume and support prices. The unblocking of Shanghai and Beijing has not improved the weak consumption. Amid long-term losses, the breeding sector continues to hope for an increase. The government has also helped pig prices return to above the cost line through 10 purchases and storage. We have observed that the market The phenomenon of active pen-holding is still common. Coupled with the recent rise in temperature and the impending second fattening, the further rise in pig prices may be limited. Considering that piglets are highly motivated to fill pens and the prices have increased significantly, overall pig prices have maintained a volatile increase in June. trend. We believe that the soon-to-be-announced production capacity depletion data for May may turn positive. We have observed that the replenishment of sows in the Yuan Dynasty began to increase in May. The enthusiasm for replenishment of sows in the north is high, while the replenishment of sows in the south is relatively rational, and the price increase of sow sows in Yuan is increasing. The market transaction price is weak. At the end of the month, the price of 50kg sows in large-scale farms exceeds 1,800 yuan/head. At the same time, the price of culled sows is high and the culling is slowing down. This may further confirm the end of production capacity reduction. At the same time, the price of pigs has further declined recently. The shock may suppress expectations of excessive rise in forward pig prices and bring good impetus to pig equity investment.

Source: Zheshang Securities.