165438+1In late October, the domestic wheat market was extremely active and the market price rose in an all-round way. In this decade, the third-grade white wheat 1646 yuan/ton in the national grain wholesale market increased by 3.02% compared with the previous period; The average price of tertiary wheat in Zhengzhou market 16 15 yuan/ton increased by 2.22% compared with the previous period.
At the end of this decade, the minimum purchase price of wheat was unprecedentedly hot. With the increasing investment, the enthusiasm of participating enterprises is unprecedented. In the past ten years, the turnover rate of two transactions in Zhengzhou was 8 1.22% and 94.37% respectively, and that in Anhui was 86.33% and 94.24% respectively, which was considerable compared with about 20% at the beginning of the month. While the transaction rate is increasing, the transaction price has also increased to a certain extent. Taking Zhengzhou market as an example, the mixed average prices of the two transactions are 1525.7 and 1527 yuan/ton respectively. Although it is only about 2% higher than 1494 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, it is formed on the basis of the rapid increase in investment, which is enough to show the strong upward momentum of the wheat market. The reasons are as follows: First, it is the peak season of domestic flour consumption, and the price of flour is rising. Due to the low inventory of wheat in flour processing enterprises, the purchasing enthusiasm of processing enterprises in both producing and selling areas has been obviously improved. Secondly, farmers have less wheat surplus. At present, farmers mainly sell autumn grain such as corn, so the supply of wheat in the market is relatively short. Participating in the auction sale of wheat with the lowest purchase price is the main channel for flour processing enterprises to purchase wheat at present. Third, the psychological factor of "buying up but not buying down" leads to the enthusiasm of enterprises for purchasing when the market rises. Fourth, driven by the rise in the overall domestic price level, the price increase of other grain varieties and oils is higher than that of wheat and other factors, leaving room for the price increase of wheat. However, due to the continuous increase in investment and the limited funds of enterprises, the situation of such a hot wheat market will be alleviated to a certain extent, and the prices in areas with excessive increase in the previous period may fall back.
Corn: Demand continues unabated and prices continue to rise.
165438+1In late October, the domestic corn market price rose obviously, and farmers' reluctance to sell began to ease at the end of the decade. In this decade, the average price of secondary corn in the national grain wholesale market 166 1 yuan/ton increased by 3.55% compared with the previous period; Secondary corn in Zhengzhou market 1685 yuan/ton, down 5.98% from the previous period.
In the past ten years, the domestic corn price has continued to rise, which has led to a sharp rise in the prices of starch and alcohol in downstream products, further supporting the corn price increase. At present, the purchase of corn in Northeast China is still dominated by deep processing enterprises. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell and the shortage of raw materials in deep processing enterprises, the purchase price will continue to increase in this decade to ensure the purchase quantity. The market volume of corn in Huanghuai area of North China has increased. However, due to the fierce competition among buyers, the price of corn has continued to rise, and the strong demand of deep processing enterprises is still the key to the price increase. Because the price of corn is higher than that of wheat, the proportion of wheat replacing corn has increased recently.
It is reported that in view of the recent sharp increase in corn prices, the state is prepared to release some central reserve corn in the main selling areas in the south, the main breeding provinces and Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces, with an estimated amount of more than 2 million tons. In addition, after this round of price increase, the stored corn in Northeast China has been sold at a suitable price in 2006, and the Agricultural Development Bank decided to recover the loan within a time limit, prompting enterprises to speed up the sales of stored corn. At the end of ten days, farmers' reluctance to sell in Huanghuai area of North China began to ease. In addition, northeast corn has arrived in Shandong and Hebei, and the price is obviously lower than that of local corn. Policy control can alleviate the pressure of market supply in a certain sense, but farmers' reluctance to sell is the main contradiction between supply and demand at present, and the change of farmers' mentality of selling grain deserves close attention. It is expected that in the short term, the upward trend of domestic corn prices will be restrained by the policy regulation, and some areas may fall back.
Rice: the domestic rice market is "strong in the south and weak in the north"
165438+1In late October, the domestic rice market was more active, and the price was "strong in the south and weak in the north". The average price of early indica rice in major grain and oil wholesale markets in China is 2480 yuan/ton, up 1. 13% from the previous period. Indica rice with overnight target of 263 1 yuan/ton increased by 0.21%compared with the previous period; The standard japonica rice is 3050 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous period.
At the end of this decade, the centralized sale of rice with the lowest purchase price was cancelled, and it was replaced by online listing on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and May 1, which was obviously better than the previous period. At present, the minimum purchase price of rice is only about 2.8 million tons, and indica rice accounted for more than 70% in the middle and late 2005. From a regional perspective, there are few left in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces. Judging from the current situation of wheat production, the rice prices in these two provinces may be the leaders in the domestic rice price increase. In this decade, affected by the rising prices of corn and wheat, the price of rice in the south has also risen, especially the price of japonica rice produced in Jiangsu. But the northeast region is too refined, and the price continues to be low. In addition, according to statistics, as of10.25,13 middle-late indica rice producing provinces * * * purchased 2007 middle-late indica rice1/kloc-0.035 million tons, of which state-owned grain enterprises purchased 5.739 million tons, accounting for 5.739 million of the total purchase.
Soybean: Policy control has been strengthened, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere has been aggravated.
165438+1In late October, it was reported that the country increased its overseas procurement and strengthened the supply of soybeans and soybean oil at home and abroad. At the beginning of this decade, driven by the futures market, the purchase price of the main producing areas fluctuated, then stabilized and continued to rise with the support of the external market. In this decade, the average price of third-grade soybeans in major grain wholesale markets in China was 4284 yuan/ton, up 2.3% from the previous period; The average price of tertiary soybeans in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 5.89% from the previous period.
The spot price of domestic soybean market has remained basically stable in the past ten years, and the overall purchase and sale amount of the market is not high, and the wait-and-see mood has become the mainstream. The main reason is that the oscillation of futures market makes oil plants and traders hesitate, and some of them stop collecting oil because they are worried that domestic imports may increase in the later period; The bean farmers who are optimistic about the market outlook will continue to hoard beans and refuse to ship them easily. Therefore, the speed of oil plants and traders collecting beans from farmers has slowed down. Due to the state's regulation and control of the grain and oil market, some oil plants in Heilongjiang, the main producing area, began to suspend their purchases for fear of unclear trends; However, due to the narrowing spot price difference and freight and other expenses, the profits of some traders in the domestic standard soybean trade for futures delivery have shrunk dramatically, which has greatly dealt a blow to their enthusiasm for shipment. On the whole, the wait-and-see mentality in the market has caused the slow progress of domestic soybean trading in the past decade, which is not easy to change in a short time. It is expected that the domestic soybean spot market will be stable as a whole and fluctuate slightly in some areas in the near future.
Edible oil: The domestic oil market continues to be strong.
165438+1in late October, affected by the news that the country will increase the supply of edible oil, domestic oil prices showed a short-term correction at the beginning of this century, and then continued to rise. The average price of secondary soybean oil in major grain wholesale markets in China was 10450 yuan/ton, up 2.16% from the previous period; Average price of secondary rapeseed oil 10 149 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous period; The average price of secondary peanut oil 17000 yuan/ton was basically the same as that of the previous period.
The domestic soybean oil market has been relatively strong in the past decade. Boosted by the external futures market, the overall domestic soybean supply is tight, and the price rebounded slightly from last week, but the adjustment pressure gradually increased. The overall market demand is still not ideal, especially the increasing macro-control pressure makes the market continue to wait and see, and there is still a demand for further shocks and weakening in the short term.
In this decade, due to the limited supply of rapeseed, the cost of imported rapeseed is easy to go up and down, and low-priced oils such as palm oil are difficult to reconcile with the temperature drop. The market demand for vegetable oil is expected to grow steadily. Therefore, although vegetable oil may decline slightly by increasing the supply of soybean oil to stabilize oil prices, from the perspective of supply and demand, the vegetable oil market has been strongly supported and will continue its strong operation trend in the future.
Malaysian crude oil palm oil futures market fell sharply due to lack of fundamental news support, effectively falling below RM 3,000. Affected by this, the domestic palm oil spot market also fell due to insufficient demand. At present, the spot prices of major ports are maintained at 8600-8900 yuan. Because dealers have some stocks to digest, most of them are mainly delisted and wait-and-see, and the market will remain weak in the short term.
Transaction price of Zhengzhou grain wholesale market in China
165438+20071late October Unit: Yuan/ton
The average price of variety grade in the current period is% compared with that in the previous period.
White wheat (common) 31615.0438+0580.002.22%
Yellow corn 2 1685.338+0590.005.98%
Soybean (oil industry) 34500.004250.005.89%
The secondary soybean meal is 3950.003750.005.34%.
Peanut kernel 29000.008400.007. 15%
Early japonica rice standard13050.00030.000.67%
Early indica rice standard1:2535.0338+00.338+0.00%.
Mung bean (miscellaneous) 27050.006570.007.30038+0%
Note: the above prices are all the seller's train board delivery prices, and the packaging is extra. In the table, white wheat conforms to GB1351-1999 standard.
Average transaction price of major grain and oil wholesale markets in China.
165438+20071late October Unit: Yuan/ton
National variety grade
The average price of this issue is% higher than that of the previous issue.
White wheat (common) 3 14638+0598.263.02%
Yellow corn 21661.55438+0604.363.55%
Soybean+
Peanut kernel 286808 153.336.46%
Rapeseed oil grade II10148.438+00083.040.66%
Secondary soybean oil1045010302.438+06%
Peanut oil grade 2 17000 17000 flat
Japonica Rice Standard13050.00050.00 Ping
Early indica rice marker 2479.67452.11.13%
Late indica rice marker-12631.4625.6638+0%
Note: the above prices are all the seller's train board delivery prices, and the packaging is extra.
A text message
1. In view of the recent sharp rise in edible oil prices, Gansu Grain Bureau will publicly sell 2 million kilograms of provincial-level reserve edible oil in the provincial grain and oil wholesale market on June 5438+February 65438+August, and each enterprise will be limited to 200 tons. According to the weekly monitoring report of the grain and oil price of the Grain Bureau of this province, by June 5438+065438+ 10/9, the average wholesale price of the fourth-grade rapeseed oil in the province was 593.79 yuan per 100 kilograms, up 33.43 yuan from last week. The average retail price of four-grade rapeseed oil in the province is 628.5 yuan per 100 kilograms, up by 35 yuan from last week. It is also known that other provinces in China will also put some reserve oil into the market around the Spring Festival.
2. In 2008, the qualification examination of soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil will be started recently, and it will continue to be the responsibility of the vegetable oil import coordination group jointly established by China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Food, Native Animals and Livestock, China Vegetable Oil Industry Association and China Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment. The import qualifications obtained by import enterprises in 2006 and 2007 will continue to be valid in 2008, and there is no need to apply again.
3. Oil World165438+1October 27th pointed out that in 2007/2008, the global soybean oil output was 39.52 million tons, which would be lower than the consumption of 40.02 million tons in the same period, and the demand was in short supply. Due to the global shortage of soybean oil in 2007/2008, the global soybean oil inventory will be reduced to 3.63 million tons, compared with 465,438+065,438+00,000 tons at the end of last year. Previously, the publication estimated that the global soybean oil production and consumption in 2006/2007 were 36.75 million tons and 36.65 million tons respectively. There will be a supply shortage in the global soybean oil market in 2007/08.
4. In order to ensure the supply of wheat in the market and fully meet the grain demand of enterprises, according to the current situation of wheat sales in the market, the bidding sales quantity of the 52nd batch of wheat with the lowest purchase price planned for auction on Wednesday, February 5, 65438 was adjusted from 2.5 million tons to 3.5 million tons, and the sales quantity of imported wheat temporarily stored by the state remained unchanged at 200,000 tons. Among them: Anhui grain wholesale trading market (including relevant venues) sold 6,543,800 tons of wheat at the lowest purchase price (800,000 tons in Hebei and Hubei provinces in 2006 and 6,543,800 tons in Jiangsu, Anhui and Shandong provinces in 2007), and the state temporarily stored 6,543,800 tons of imported wheat; Zhengzhou grain wholesale market sold 6,543,8+0.7 million tons of wheat at the lowest purchase price in Henan in 2006, and the state temporarily stored 60,000 tons of imported wheat. Therefore, the number of transactions is relatively large, and the trading time is expected to be held on Wednesday and Thursday.
5. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 2,845,430 tons of soybeans from April to October, up 27.3% year-on-year. It mainly imports 1.022745 tons from Argentina, 1.0 1.674 tons from Brazil, 769936 tons from the United States, 379 1 ton from Uruguay and 3088 tons from Canada. From June 2007 to October 2007, we imported 245404 1 1 ton, up 4.5% year-on-year. According to statistics, in June 5438+1October, China's soybean exports 1 1479 tons, down 44.3% year-on-year. The destination countries are Japan (4 122 tons), South Korea (3,682 tons), Vietnam (1502 tons), Hong Kong (673 tons), the United States (62 1 ton) and North Korea (196 tons). In 2007, it exported 376,048 tons from 1 to 1, up 28.9% year-on-year.
6. The 5th1auction fair of wheat with the lowest purchase price was successfully held in Anhui Grain Wholesale Market (with Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong and Hubei sub-markets) on October 28th, 2007. The planned auction volume of this fair is 6.5438+0.2647 million tons, and the actual transaction volume is 6.5438+0.10.910.8 million tons, with a total turnover ratio of 94.24%. Among them, in 2006, the turnover of white wheat was 362,200 tons, accounting for 90.87%, and the average transaction price was 1.598 yuan/ton; In 2007, the turnover of white wheat was136,000 tons, accounting for 97%, with an average turnover of 1590 yuan/ton; In 2006, the turnover of red wheat was1.10000 tons, accounting for 100%, with an average turnover of 1530 yuan/ton; In 2007, the turnover of red wheat was 1.540 tons, the turnover rate was 1.000%, and the average turnover was 1.494 yuan/ton; In 2006, the turnover of mixed wheat was 370,500 tons, the turnover rate was 93.87%, and the average transaction price was 1, 496,5438+0 yuan/ton; In 2007, the turnover of mixed wheat was 296,600 tons, accounting for 97.34%, and the average transaction price was 1.552 yuan/ton.
7. Anhui plans to sell 354,900 tons this time, with a turnover of 334,300 tons, with a total turnover rate of 94.20%. Among them, in 2006, the mixed wheat transaction was193,800 tons, the transaction ratio was 100%, and the highest transaction price was 1.58 yuan/ton; The lowest transaction price 1440 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price 1507 yuan/ton; In 2006, the turnover of white wheat was 20,700 tons, accounting for 67.65%, with the highest transaction price 1.68 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1.500 yuan/ton and the average transaction price 1.560 yuan/ton. In 2006, the turnover of red wheat was1.110,000 tons, accounting for 100%, both of which were 1530 yuan/ton. In 2007, the mixed wheat turnover was 93,300 tons, the turnover rate was 9 1. 1%, and the highest transaction price was 1.560 yuan/ton. The lowest transaction price 1440 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price 1496 yuan/ton; In 2007, all white wheat was auctioned; In 2007, the turnover of red wheat was 1.540 tons, the turnover rate was 1.000%, the highest transaction price was 1.530 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price was 1.440 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1.494 yuan.
8. Shandong plans to sell122,000 tons in this fair, and all of them are sold. Among them, in 2006, the turnover of mixed wheat was 0.63 million tons, with the highest transaction price 1.570 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1.490 yuan/ton and the average transaction price 1.570 yuan/ton; In 2006, the turnover of white wheat was 29,300 tons, with the highest transaction price 1.590 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1.560 yuan/ton and the average transaction price 1.568 yuan/ton. In 2007, the transaction volume of mixed wheat was 1.600 tons, the highest transaction price was 1.600 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price was 1.590 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1.590 yuan/ton. In 2007, the sales volume of white wheat was 75,800 tons, with the highest transaction price 1.750 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1.550 yuan/ton and the average transaction price 1.593 yuan/ton.
9. Hubei plans to sell mixed wheat194,600 tons, with a turnover of170,400 tons, accounting for 87.56%. The highest transaction price 1580 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1420 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price 14765438.
10. After the completion of the wheat transaction in Hebei, the planned sales volume of this fair was 338,700 tons, and the actual transaction volume was 310.22 million tons, accounting for 92 18%. Among them, the turnover of white wheat was 3 1.22 million tons, the highest transaction price was 1.7 1.00 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price was 1.500 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1.603 yuan/ton; All the mixed wheat has been taken away.
1 1. Jiangsu planned to sell 254,500 tons of wheat in 2007, and the actual turnover was 25 19%, with a turnover rate of 98.98%. Among them, the mixed wheat transaction1917,000 tons, all transactions, the highest transaction price 17 10 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1440 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price 1578 yuan/ton; The turnover of white wheat was 60,200 tons, with the highest transaction price 1.630 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price 1.540 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price 1.587 yuan/ton.
On February 28th, 65438, the lowest purchase price of Henan wheat and imported wheat was auctioned. Planned sales 1 198500 tons, actual sales 1 13. 10000 tons, turnover rate of 94.37%, highest transaction price 1780 yuan/ton.
13. the state will put the central reserve corn into sales areas, breeding provinces and other places. It is reported that this year's domestic corn output is basically the same as that of the previous year, but due to the weather, corn threshing is later than normal, which leads to short-term supply and demand shortage and price increase. In order to meet the domestic demand for feed and stabilize the price of corn, the state will instruct China Grain Reserve Management Corporation to reserve corn from the southern main selling areas, main producing provinces and centralized parts of Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces in the near future. It is estimated that the number of this launch will exceed 2 million tons. It is also reported that the domestic corn price has risen recently, and the corn produced by Northeast grain enterprises in 2006 has been sold at a suitable price. The Agricultural Development Bank is about to introduce new measures, requiring loan enterprises to speed up the sale of corn stocks and recover loans within a time limit.
The market of Huobao flour is shrouded in a wait-and-see atmosphere.
165438+1At the beginning of October, the price of wheat continued to rise, boosting the price of flour. However, with the recent national minimum purchase price of wheat put into the market auction, flour dealers also hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook, pay close attention to the price of raw grain, and no longer blindly sign orders.
According to the information of China Grain Network, the price of flour in the main producing areas rose slightly in mid-June165438+1October, and remained basically stable in the later period. At present, the ex-factory price of special powder in Jinsha River, Hebei Province is 2,200 yuan/ton, compared with 2 120 yuan/ton half a month ago; The ex-factory price of Henan Haijia Shenxiang special powder has been stable at 2320 yuan/ton for more than ten consecutive days, compared with 2240 yuan/ton in the previous period; The ex-factory price of Shandong Hengfengte 1 powder rose by 40 yuan two weeks ago and has been maintained at 2280 yuan/ton.
Reason analysis: On the one hand, although it is more difficult to buy wheat in the current market, at the same time, the competitive sales of wheat in the market continue to be fierce, which has alleviated the supply pressure in the wheat market to some extent. 165438+1On October 28th, the planned sales volume of the national minimum purchase price wheat was 2,463,200 tons, about 800,000 tons more than last week, and the actual turnover was 2,322,800 tons, accounting for 94.3% of the total turnover. Adequate market supply has brought more choices to grain enterprises. On the other hand, in order to meet the peak season of flour consumption such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, a large number of orders signed by some flour dealers in the early stage have not been fully fulfilled. Seeing that the rise in raw grain prices is affected by policy regulation, flour dealers are no longer optimistic about the market outlook and hold a wait-and-see attitude. The senior manager in charge of developing flour sales in Shandong said that although the daily sales volume is still several hundred tons recently, it is far less than the order quantity at the beginning of the month. Dealers are more concerned about the price trend of wheat than flour processing enterprises. At present, everyone is watching the wheat market to "price" the flour on the market.
It is reported that due to the continuous fire in the wheat market, the country will still increase market supply. 65438 The planned sales volume of the lowest purchase price wheat auction fair to be held on February 5th will increase from 2.5 million tons to 3.5 million tons, including 0.7 million tons in Henan/KLOC and 0.8 million tons in Anhui/KLOC.
With the continuous and substantial increase in the sales volume of the national minimum purchase price wheat auction trading plan, the strong market price increase of wheat will be restrained, and the price increase of flour will be under certain pressure. However, with the arrival of the peak season of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the market demand will increase, which will also support the face price, and the possibility of large fluctuations in flour prices will not be too great. (Source: China Food Network)
The price increase of flour led to the price increase of instant noodles again.
Information Times165438+1October 28th reported that the recent rise in flour prices 10% triggered a series of chain reactions, and the prices of some dried noodles, instant noodles and other commodities will rise from next month. Some supermarkets in Guangzhou have received a unified price increase notice, saying that the price of barreled noodles will increase by 0.3 yuan/box. It is reported that this is the second collective price increase of instant noodle enterprises since palm oil price increase at the end of July.
Unified barreled noodles plan to raise prices next month.
Yesterday morning, the reporter visited some supermarkets in Guangzhou and found that instant noodles including Master Kong, Uni-President and Jinmailang still maintained the price level at the end of July and the beginning of August. However, the staff of Trust-Mart's Zhou Nan store told reporters that the retail price of the above-mentioned brands of instant noodles will change slightly next month.
Subsequently, the reporter learned from a community supermarket named "Li Kelong" that the supermarket had received a unified price increase notice. The notice made it clear that from next month, the price of 12 cups of unified bottled instant noodles will be increased by 3 ~ 4 yuan per box (that is, the price of bottled instant noodles will be increased by 0.3 yuan per box), and the price of bagged instant noodles will not be increased for the time being. The reporter noted that the unification of this round of price increases will become the third wave of price increases initiated since the second half of this year. Previously, in June this year, Uni-President had carried out the first wave of price adjustment for the low-priced series products around 1 yuan, with an average increase of 20%; The second wave of price adjustment was conducted in August and September, with an average increase of 13% for the high-priced surface above/5 yuan/bag. The person in charge of Li Kelong is worried that after big brands such as Uni-President raise prices, other brands of instant noodles will follow suit, because "there has been a precedent before".
The price increase of flour triggered this round of price increase.
At the end of July, the collective price increase of instant noodles was due to the increase in palm oil prices. Insiders pointed out that the main reason for the new round of price increase of instant noodles is the price increase of flour. The person in charge of a large food enterprise in the city said that the price of flour in the second half of the year increased by 10% compared with the first half of the year, and this month alone increased by 5% compared with the previous month. According to the data learned by the reporter from the agricultural grain and oil market in Baiyun Mountain, the price of standard flour was 2. 14 yuan/kg on the 25th of last month, but the price quoted yesterday has soared to 2.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 28.5%.
"The recent increase in the price of flour and edible oil has really had a great impact on our instant noodle enterprises, but whether the price increase needs more research." Yesterday afternoon, the reporter interviewed Guangzhou Master Kong, Uni-President Enterprise, Hualong Nissin and other instant noodle enterprises, and they all got such vague answers. The relevant person in charge of Guangzhou Master Kong said that so far, the price of their instant noodles has remained at the price after the price increase in August this year. As for whether the price will be raised again in the near future, they have to wait for the notice from the headquarters. A staff member in charge of instant noodles in Uni-President said that the recent increase in the prices of flour and edible oil may involve their instant noodles. Hualong Nissin also said that further verification is needed to inform. (Source: Information Times)
Farmers' reluctance to sell is less than the market price increase of corn in the new season.
165438+1since the end of October, the domestic corn price has continued the anti-seasonal rising trend since the end of June, and the corn prices in the production and sales areas have all increased to some extent, especially in Guanzhong production area and southern sales area. At present, the purchasing market of corn in the new season in the producing area is relatively light. Although buyers are competing to raise prices, the purchase volume is still scarce and the situation is not ideal. Even some enterprises were forced to stop production due to shortage or loss of raw materials. In addition to the influence of warm winter weather on the listing of new corn and the cautious attitude of enterprises, farmers' reluctance to sell has always been the key factor leading the price trend of new grain since its listing. Below, the author will briefly analyze the recent changes in the corn market in domestic production and marketing areas.
Planting costs are high, demand is low, and farmers have high expectations for corn prices.
Since the beginning of this year, with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of agricultural materials such as diesel oil and chemical fertilizer have also risen sharply, and the prices of seeds and pesticides have also risen sharply year-on-year. According to the survey data of relevant departments, compared with previous years, the labor cost of corn planting increased significantly in 2007. During spring sowing, the prices of all kinds of agricultural materials increased obviously, among which the price of seeds increased by about 10%, the average increase of pesticides was above 15%, and some pesticides even exceeded twice. It is estimated that the corn planting cost will increase by 272 yuan/hectare in 2007, of which the fuel cost will increase in 220 yuan, accounting for 80.9% of the increase in corn production cost. At the same time, the land lease cost of many farmers is also rising. It is understood that the land lease cost per mu of corn in Heilongjiang Province has risen to more than 200 yuan. The rising cost of corn planting makes farmers have higher expectations for corn prices. At the same time, in recent years, with the support of a series of national policies to benefit farmers, farmers' burden has been greatly reduced, their income has increased, and their demand for cash has been greatly reduced. In addition, due to the anti-seasonal upward trend of corn prices in the previous year, the first sellers suffered losses, so farmers were mostly on the sidelines and were not in a hurry to sell.
The prices of surrounding agricultural products and rising prices have intensified farmers' bullish expectations of corn prices.
Since the autumn grain was listed this year, the prices of new soybeans, peanuts and sorghum in Northeast China have generally increased. Compared with the beginning of listing, the current price has generally increased by 100 yuan/ton. Farmers think that the price of corn will also rise, waiting for the price to sell. Among them, due to the reduction of soybean production and the strong demand for oil, the purchase price of soybeans reached a historical record this year. At present, the purchase price of soybeans in producing areas is as high as 2.2 yuan/kg, and it is still rising. In this context, farmers also have high expectations for corn prices. On the one hand, although the soybean price is soaring this year, the soybean yield per mu has not increased significantly due to the decline in soybean yield. The income from soybean planting was the same as that in previous years or increased slightly. Many farmers pin their hopes on the purchase price of corn. On the other hand, despite the drought, the yield of corn has not been greatly reduced due to the influence of planting area, and the quality has been better in recent years. Seeing the increase in soybean prices, farmers hope that high-quality corn can fetch a good price. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the prices of domestic agricultural and sideline products such as eggs and meat have risen sharply, and the consumer price index has risen significantly. Recently, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in June 6- 10/0, China's consumer price index rose by 6.2% year-on-year, and will reach 4.5% for the whole year. At the same time, the market prices of crude oil, non-ferrous metals, securities and futures. Have increased significantly. In this context, farmers believe that corn prices will rise accordingly.