There is a wolf in front and a tiger behind. This sentence is perfect to describe today’s pig industry. There is the threat of large amounts of imported pork in the past, and low pork prices are holding back the market later. Since the National Day last year, pig farmers have been losing money. Those retail investors who said the losses were only temporary have sold their pig pens early and went out to work. At present, 1.95 million tons of imported meat are coming, pig prices have been falling for several months, and livestock breeding is losing more than 200 yuan per pig? Where should agriculture go in the future?
01
Know the pig market in advance
Currently, the average price of domestic pigs is 7.05 yuan/jin, which has increased slightly compared with yesterday, but the increase is not large. , there is still one week to go until May Day. In the short term, the peak consumption season effect will gradually appear. The price of pigs will rise slightly on May Day, but the overall increase will not be too large. This is mainly due to the large number of cows and pigs holding down the pens. The market The supply of pork is sufficient, the weather is getting warmer, the difficulty of raising pigs has increased, losses have intensified, and cost pressures have been adversely affected by many aspects. Therefore, it is still difficult to achieve a sharp rise in pig prices.
02
1.95 million tons of imported meat arrives
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country imported 653,000 tons of meat in March. From January to now , my country imported a total of 1.951 million tons of meat, 286,000 tons more than the same period last year.
At present, the domestic livestock market is in a sluggish state, and pig prices have been falling for several months. Farmers are losing at least 200 yuan per pig. In such an environment, why do we need to import large quantities of pork to provide domestic fresh food? What about meat pressure? This is mainly due to the following two reasons:
First, because the cost of imported pork is low. The origins of my country's imported pork are relatively scattered, including the European Union, the United States, Canada, Brazil and other places. The output of pork in these places is relatively cheap. Moreover, since my country joined WYO, the tariff on pork has been further reduced to 12%. Taking into account the cost of arrival at the port, importing at low prices is also a policy.
Second, because my country’s pig production capacity recovered slowly after the African swine fever, the amount of imported pork began to rise sharply at that time. Although my country's pig production capacity has returned to the normal range, there is still a market for imported pork in the face of diversified domestic demand. At the same time, some companies have long-term fixed export orders for foreign pork, which has resulted in a continuous flow of imported pork into our country.
03
What is the outlook for the agricultural market?
The domestic pig production capacity is saturated, and imported pork is coming with a storm. Where will the agricultural market go? Currently, the pig population has increased by 2% year-on-year, and pork production has increased by 1.9% year-on-year. Since last year, the number of fertile sows has been increasing, and these increases will be reflected in the subsequent slaughter of pigs.
In the first quarter of this year, the overall price of live pigs was relatively low, which made it easier for slaughterhouses to divide and store frozen meat. In this way, even if pig farmers survive the Golden Nine and Silver Ten, if the price of pigs rises sharply, they will be pulled by imported pork, frozen meat, etc., thereby limiting the sharp increase.
So, are you optimistic about the pig market this year? Let’s chat together, shall we?