According to the relationship between supply and demand in the market, if there is more supply and less demand, the price will decrease, and conversely, the price will increase. Mainly affected by the weather, you had a severe drought in Yunnan last year, and Yunnan is the main producing area of garlic, which is mainly used as seasoning and hot pot restaurant. At the same time, due to the decrease of garlic planting area in Wenjiang and other Yunnan areas, and some unscrupulous businessmen hoarding goods, there are many reasons for the increase in garlic prices. For example, last year's fluctuation was mainly based on garlic stocks, and most hot pot restaurants used garlic instead of this year! The storage of garlic in the last two years is almost finished, but this year's new garlic production is greatly affected by the weather, resulting in a reduction in production. Garlic in Wenjiang and other places has not been listed yet. I think the listing price of new garlic will continue to be high for some time, because some big businesses will store and store garlic. Hot pot restaurants generally do not use new garlic. It is mainly the relationship between supply and demand that affects the price rise and fall! Let me send you a message to see why the price of garlic has risen: two days ago, we reported that the price of vegetables suddenly rose after rain and snow in the north. In fact, among all kinds of agricultural products, the champion of real price increase is not vegetables, but humble garlic. From the Spring Festival to now, it has increased tenfold in less than ten months. This increase is worse than the best bull stocks in the stock market. How can garlic, just a condiment, become an aristocratic dish this year? Our reporter went to Jinxiang County, Shandong Province, the main garlic producing area. Let's have a look. Garlic: Becoming an Aristocratic Cuisine Reporter: "The place where I am now is Jinxiang County, China, and a quarter of the garlic sold in China market comes from here. At this garlic sales point, I learned from the boss that this bag of red garlic weighs 40 Jin. When the price was low last year, its price was 3.50 yuan. Now, its price has risen to 120 yuan. " In Jinxiang garlic wholesale market, there are hundreds of enterprises engaged in garlic wholesale, foreign trade and processing. The owner of this garlic processing shop is Han Yuchang. He told reporters that compared with previous years, this year's garlic market is surprisingly good. Han Yuchang, owner of garlic processing point in Jinxiang County: "At this time last year, 1 a catty, at this time, it was 3 yuan." The workflow of Han Yuchang's machining point is very simple. Only a few workers need to unpack the bought garlic and put it in the pocket of the customer's designated style to deliver the goods. He told reporters that the recent shipments are very impressive. Reporter: "How many tons can you sell on average every day?" Han Yuchang, the boss of Jinxiang garlic processing point, said, "I sell more than ten tons a day." Because the price of garlic was very low last year, Han Yuchang was worried that he still couldn't sell the price this year, so he only bought a few hundred tons of goods, and he started late and the purchase price was high, earning only a few cents per catty on average, but after more than three months, Han Yuchang had earned more than 200,000 yuan. He bought a car in Jining when he was happy. Reporter: "I heard that you bought this car newly?" Han Yuchang, owner of garlic processing point in Jinxiang County: "Newly bought." Reporter: "Did this car cost a lot of money?" Han Yuchang: "1.2 million." Sellers like Han Yuchang are still small players. In an open space in Nandianzi Village, the county seat of Jinxiang County, every morning, hundreds of garlic merchants gather here to exchange ideas and negotiate prices. Each of them has thousands or even tens of thousands of tons of inventory. Reporter: "Does the transaction volume of this place account for a lot of garlic transactions in the country?" Garlic merchants: "It can be said that it accounts for 90%, the lowest 90%, including the whole world, and it can also be said that it accounts for 80% and 90%." Since Jinxiang County is the main garlic producing area in China and China is the main garlic exporter in the world, it is these hundreds of sellers that affect the garlic price in China and even the world. Garlic merchant: "This is a center. The whole world came to see this place. When this place rises, the whole world rises. This place fell and the whole world fell. " With the continuous increase of garlic price this year, Nandianzi Village has attracted a large number of businessmen from all over the country in just a few months. Reporter: "Where are you from?" Garlic merchant: "I'm from Shenzhen." Garlic merchant: "Liaoning." Garlic merchant: "I (Zhejiang) am from Chengzhou." On the edge of the crowd, the reporter found a young man in his early twenties. He told reporters that he is from the northeast and is currently doing garlic business in Jinxiang. Garlic merchant: "Now look over there, the cargo owners are loading cars. Like now, they can get the goods in one day, and they can get 150 cars for export and domestic sales, and they can get between 4500 tons and 5000 tons. Basically, after these people talk about it here, I will deliver the goods. I am a small family. " Reporter: "How old?" Garlic merchant: "200 tons." Garlic has become a cash cow, and many laymen are eager to support the booming market in Jinxiang County, which is the rise in garlic prices. According to the survey of China Garlic Network, the average warehousing price of garlic dealers this year is around 1.5 yuan to 1.8 yuan per catty. With the launch of new garlic this month, dealers expect that the price of garlic will not be lower than 4 yuan per catty in a short time. Coupled with the cold weather and rising storage and freight costs, the price of garlic may rise to a higher level in the market. Garlic is now a cash cow. This year, not only dealers made a lot of money, but also many amateurs were jealous and joined the ranks of garlic trading. Our reporter met a truck driver who earned 500 thousand. Compared with last year's low price, the wholesale price of dried garlic has increased by about 40 times, but the garlic trade continues to be hot. In this wave of market, not only those businessmen who have hundreds or thousands of tons of inventory on hand make big profits, but also many ordinary people who had little capital seized the opportunity and got a piece of the action. His name is Liu Jun, and he was originally just a truck driver who was responsible for pulling goods for garlic processing plants. At the beginning of this year, after hearing the news that the price of garlic was about to rise, he decided to participate. Liu Jun, a truck driver: "From this year, the market is still good. Garlic business used to be bad. What they often do this year is to save a little. They want to mortgage the house through relatives and friends and borrow some money to save a little. " Reporter: "Borrowed a lot of money, borrowed a lot of money?" Liu Jun: "I borrowed about 400 thousand." After collecting 400,000 yuan, Liu Jun bought 300 tons of garlic at a price of about 2 yuan per catty. A few months later, the total price of this batch of garlic soared from 400 thousand yuan to 960 thousand yuan. Liu Jun sold it and made a net profit of more than 500,000 yuan after paying off all debts. Liu Jun, the truck driver, said, "If we want to sell now, we need to earn more, and earn hundreds of thousands. Now it is almost 4 yuan, the quality is better, and it is closer to 4 yuan. " Now, although he is still a truck driver, Liu Jun basically knows the quality and market of kind of garlic like the back of his hand. He told reporters that he will continue to invest in garlic next year. Liu Jun, the truck driver: "My house is loaned by installment, and then I will pay off the house. Considering that it will be better next year, take your time. " Reporter: "The price is not necessarily so good next year, right?" Liu Jun: "There will probably be a lot of inspections next year, from the market to the ground. This should be checked by yourself." Is there speculation behind the skyrocketing price of garlic? After listening to the garlic business story in Liu Jun, many people may be moved. In fact, in this market, people like him who have entered the market for hundreds of thousands of yuan are still tinkering around the edges, and more huge funds are yet to come. It is reported that at present, 50 million yuan of Wenzhou hot money has entered the northern garlic market, and the funds of Shanxi coal bosses are also pouring into the garlic market. Garlic, which has always been tepid, has suddenly become the object of speculation by various funds, which is probably something that no one dared to think about before. Some agricultural products are traded in the market, and some agricultural products are in greater demand than garlic. But why did the sudden surge in garlic prices this year touch so many sensitive nerves? Let's find out. Li Jingfeng, president of Shandong Jinxiang Garlic Association, told us that this year's situation is hard to find, mainly because the relationship between supply and demand has changed. Li Jingfeng, president of Shandong Jinxiang Garlic Association and chairman of Huaguang Group, said: "In 2008, due to the general increase of garlic planting area, the supply in the market exceeded demand, which made farmers, intermediate distributors and exporters suffer huge losses to varying degrees. Under this circumstance, the enthusiasm of ordinary people to grow garlic has been greatly reduced, so the garlic planting area has been reduced by 30%. " The reduction of planting area has led to a sharp drop in garlic production this year, which has greatly pushed up the price of garlic. Subsequently, the epidemic of influenza A spread around the world, because it is widely believed that garlic can sterilize, disinfect, improve human immunity and even avoid being infected with influenza A, which also contributed to the price increase of garlic. Li Jingfeng, president of Jinxiang Garlic Association and chairman of Huaguang Group, said: "When SARS hit in 2003, the price in kind of garlic soared. Especially this year, the scope of international influenza A is relatively wide, and the international demand for garlic is generally increasing, which is also a reason for the increase in garlic prices. " 165438+1October16, Zhong Nanshan, academician of China Academy of Engineering and president of Chinese Medical Association, responded to the folk saying that garlic does have bactericidal effect, but there is not enough evidence to show that garlic has the function of preventing swine flu. However, Zhong Nanshan's remarks did not stop the price of garlic from rising. At present, the retail price of garlic in all parts of the country basically exceeds that of 4 yuan per catty, and the price of garlic in some places even exceeds that of pork, reaching 5.5 yuan per catty. In the interview, the reporter found that the increase of garlic price is not only the decrease of planting area and the spread of swine flu epidemic. Du, a researcher specializing in agricultural futures at China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd., told reporters that after analyzing the garlic price in the past year, we can conclude that there must be speculation behind the soaring garlic price. Du, a researcher at China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.: "Like last year, we can see that planting includes the production price, which is about one yuan per kilogram. So is it because of the financial crisis that the planting area has decreased and the prices of other fertilizers and electricity have increased this year? I think this part accounts for a relatively small share, so from the concept of planting cost, there is still a certain bubble when the current price rises so high. Should it go up more than 40 times? Reporter: "There must be hype? Du: "Yes, there are hype factors in it. "In the trading market of Nandianzi Village in Jinxiang County, the reporter learned that although the price of garlic has been ten times higher than last year, dealers are not in a hurry. A businessman who came from Shenzhen to purchase goods failed to find anyone willing to ship after searching for a long time. Reporter: "Do you want to purchase? "Shenzhen Businessman:" Yes. "Reporter:" Have you found the target now? "Shenzhen businessman:" I can't find them, and they don't want to sell them. "Reporter:" Do you have any goods in your hand? "Garlic merchant:" Everyone has it. Reporter: "How many do you have?" "Garlic merchant:" How many hundred tons? Reporter: "Are you willing to sell? "Garlic merchant:" It's not cheap now, but it has to go up if the goods are less. Reporter: "Do you sell a lot of money?" "Garlic merchant:" It's hard to say. It's cheaper when not working. Now it looks like it's going up, so it's not for sale. Reporter: "Do you think it will rise to a lot of money? "Garlic vendor:" From 4 yuan. "The seller's' starting from 4' refers to the wholesale price of garlic. At present, the wholesale price in jinxiang garlic is around 3.5 yuan and 3.6 yuan. He thinks there is still a lot of room for price increase. Many people in Nandian sub-market share his ideas. Not only that, the reporter also learned in the local area that when the price of garlic has been rising all the way, some garlic merchants have started to hoard a lot of goods, property hoarding. Li Jingfeng, president of Shandong Jinxiang Garlic Association and chairman of Huaguang Group, said: "That is to say, this small quantity is the main reason, which provides a profit opportunity for people who participate in garlic, so now they not only stop selling it, but also invest some money to save garlic. "Wang Aiguo is also a garlic dealer. Since the beginning of this year, he has started to buy a lot of garlic with many friends, and the inventory on hand is already very considerable. Reporter: "How many people have you made this year, and now you have a lot of goods? Garlic distributor Wang Aiguo: "This year, four or five of us engaged in 2,000 tons. "Wang Aiguo's garlic is stored in the local garlic special cold storage, and it needs to pay the cost of 250 yuan per ton in one season. With 2000 tons of cash, Wang Aiguo can earn more than 7 million yuan as long as he sells it, but he would rather continue to pay the storage fee to the cold storage than rush to ship it. Garlic distributor Wang Aiguo: "This is the market rule of this thing. The more you buy, the higher the price. Everyone will wait. But now, as far as jinxiang garlic is concerned, the purchase and sale are booming and everyone is selling. " Reporter: "How many pieces do you have? Garlic dealer Wang Aiguo: "I want to sell this piece recently and wait for a good price." . "Not only local businessman Rainbow Ai Guo, but also many foreign businessmen who were originally engaged in other industries flocked to see that fried garlic was profitable. Garlic dealer Wang Aiguo: "There is real estate here. At first glance, the price of real estate was not good last year. At first glance, garlic is more profitable and its price soars. They took out the money to invest in the garlic business, and some invested in the garlic slice business. "We can see that the tight supply and rising market prices have made these garlic merchants in Jinxiang County particularly impatient this year. Perhaps in their view, as long as the price of garlic continues to rise like this, the garlic on hand is a golden doll that will continue to expand. Their psychology is actually a typical speculative psychology, chasing up and killing down. As long as the price rises, no one will easily ship and hoard, further pushing up the price. So, can garlic farmers get a lot of "cakes" from this wave of market speculation? Will garlic always be a "noble dish"? As we have seen before, although Academician Zhong Nanshan has said that the bactericidal effect of garlic does not mean that swine flu can be prevented, it does not prevent the market from continuing to speculate garlic through rumors. Compared with the previous price of how many cents or even how many cents a catty, the price of garlic has now increased tenfold. We found from the garlic market in Jinxiang County, Shandong Province that many dealers and retail investors who fried garlic earned hundreds of thousands or even millions in just a few months this year. They all made huge profits from the tight garlic, so shouldn't farmers in kind of garlic earn more this year? Let's look at the income of garlic farmers. Wang Qingyu is a villager in Wangtang Village, Jinxiang County Development Zone. She told reporters that the price of garlic has risen this year, and the net income per mu can reach 2000 yuan. Although this money is really insignificant compared with the profits of hundreds of thousands and millions of dealers, as an ordinary farmer, he is already very satisfied. Qingyu Wang, a villager in Wangtang Village, Jinxiang County Development Zone, said, "This year is better than previous years. We haven't had such a price since we started in kind of garlic. Very satisfied, very good. "When it comes to the soaring price of garlic this year, Wang Yuqing is not as excited as we thought. He told us that his family has eight acres of land, all of which belong to kind of garlic, and he spends a lot of time and money on these eight acres of land every year. Qingyu Wang, a villager from Tang Wang Village, Jinxiang County Development Zone, said: "From chemical fertilizer to plastic sheets, to kind of garlic and planting medicinal materials, the whole watering costs 1000 yuan. "Every mu of land needs to be invested 1000 yuan, and 8 mu of land is 8000 yuan. However, in 2008, due to the significant increase in planting area and output, garlic could not be sold at the lowest price, only a few cents a catty. In 2008, Wang Qingyu's one-year efforts completely hit Shui Piao. Wang Qingyu, a villager in Tang Wang Village, Jinxiang County Development Zone, said: "Last year, seven or eight hundred yuan (earned on an acre of land) was enough for fertilizer, and the light cost and operation output were not counted. "Because garlic can only sell for a few cents per catty, the distance is not enough. Some farmers simply piled up a lot of garlic and let it rot in the ground. Qingyu Wang, a villager in Tang Wang Village, Jinxiang County Development Zone, said: "Both, some were taken back, lost halfway, and some were thrown in that pit." At that time, after witnessing such a scene, garlic farmer Rainbow Qingyu felt very depressed. Many people have changed the cultivated land where garlic was originally planted to wheat, cotton and other crops, resulting in a significant reduction in garlic planting area in Jinxiang County. The reporter learned in the interview that many garlic farmers are already expanding the planting area of garlic after seeing the gratifying price of garlic this year. In 20 10 year, the planting area in Jinxiang County alone will increase by 10%. Wang Aiguo, a garlic distributor, said, "The whole Jinxiang is planted with 600,000 mu all the year round. At first glance, kind of garlic is trying to earn money, so the planting area is expanding. For example, in Pizhou, Jiangsu, Zhongmu, Henan and Laiwu, Shandong, the planting area in the main producing areas is expanding. " However, Li Jingfeng, president of the jinxiang garlic Association, told reporters that the expansion of planting area is likely to lead to a drop in garlic prices next year. Li Jingfeng, president of Shandong Jinxiang Garlic Association and chairman of Huaguang Group, said: "The technical content of garlic cultivation is relatively low. With the wave-like trend and change, sometimes the planting area decreases and the price will rise. If the planting area increases, it will be lowered, bringing another wave of garlic price reduction. "How to deal with the soaring garlic price fairly? I noticed that the data provided by Jinxiang County said that after the low garlic price in 2008, their planting area decreased by 30% this year, but no one expected that the garlic price soared again this year. It seems that those farmers who switched to wheat and cotton still failed to catch up with this wave of market and failed to recover last year's losses from the price increase of garlic. I am more worried about what will happen to these farmers next year. Seeing the rising price of garlic, not only Jinxiang, but also some places in other provinces are expanding garlic planting area. If the garlic market really plummets after the 20 10 surge, garlic farmers are likely to suffer heavy losses again as in 2008. At present, it is imperative to curb excessive speculation in the garlic market and prevent price shocks from harming farmers' interests. Du told reporters that the ups and downs of garlic prices will not only dampen the enthusiasm of growers, but also mean great risks for investors who want to make money by planning. Du, a researcher at China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.: "When the price is relatively high, people's purchase demand will decrease, so I don't think the price will rise to the point where the demand will decrease so much." Reporter: "Will it fall?" Du: "Yes, there will be signs of falling back." Du analyzed that for those agricultural products whose prices have skyrocketed beyond a reasonable limit, although it is not possible to establish a purchasing and storage system to stabilize market prices when necessary, like wheat, corn and other agricultural products, it is necessary to establish a mechanism to avoid price ups and downs. Du, a researcher at China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.: "Then, when other commodities may rise in the later period, a purchasing and storage system will be established. I think vegetables can be established as a small piece. For example, if it does not establish a central list, then I can establish some provincial, prefecture-level cities and a government regulation. " Du also said that in order to avoid speculation and other factors from having a huge impact on the prices of agricultural products with smaller plates such as garlic, the key is to improve the transparency of transactions through electronic transactions. In fact, garlic merchants in Jinxiang county have already begun to try garlic futures trading. Just in the middle of June this year, Wang Aiguo and several of his business partners set up Jinxiang International Garlic Exchange. Through an online trading platform, registered users can buy and sell garlic like stocks, thus replacing the previous negotiation mode that garlic price depends on oral agreement. Du, a researcher at China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.: "If electronic transactions are introduced, such as garlic in the purchasing and storage market, which is similar to futures, then everyone will buy and sell here, and then the price will be recognized by everyone in the market, and everyone will do it. Then in the period of market transparency, its price will be relatively reasonable." Du also stressed that the introduction of electronic trading is a good attempt, but a perfect delivery system like futures needs to be established. Otherwise, relying only on virtual transactions in the online market will easily lead to malicious speculation of hot money. Du, a researcher at China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.: "What is the guarantee of its approved price? It depends on our transportation system. Delivery after expiration, seller delivery, buyer payment. If the price is particularly high, it means that there may be more short positions. At this time, mutual loss may occur, and there are many empty positions, and the empty positions cannot be delivered. He can only default in the spot market or futures market or any other market. Buyers and sellers in the spot market push up the price very high. At this time, if he receives the goods, the spot market price is so low that it is also a loss for him. This delivery system leads to the fairness of futures forward prices, or more in line with this market. Recognition, so this system is better. " Half an hour's observation: The soaring garlic in 2009 reminds me of the soaring pork in 2007. The soaring price of meat in those years also attracted various funds to follow up, and even some real estate developers turned to build pigsty. However, the price bubble set off by the market quickly disappeared in a round of pig raising fever. Only after less than two years, this year's meat price once fell back to the starting point in 2007. Between ups and downs, pig farmers suffer the most. Establishing the pricing mechanism of agricultural products is not a new topic for China economy. As a big agricultural country, the chaos of agricultural product price system has always made many farmers' economic interests lack protection. They are like a boat that floats and sinks with the wind and waves of the market, and they are always in a weak position. It's the dealers who really take most of the profits. This information asymmetry provides opportunities for speculation, and the market can't get a clear price signal, so it can only be hot and cold according to various rumors. The sharp rise and fall of pork has taught us a profound lesson. I hope garlic won't be the second case. There are many people in kind of garlic here, but the output has decreased a lot due to the weather. Last year, I bought a lot of garlic for 2 yuan, and this year I bought less than 5 heads. The market needs it. There is not so much garlic, so the price is set naturally. - .