"The price of pork is related to hype." Zhan Jiabao, the propaganda department of Xinfadi Market, believes that the price of pork is mainly fried. After the price is high, many farmers and farms are reluctant to sell live pigs. They want to raise pigs to about 150 kg before selling them. This is a kind of "reluctance to sell" psychology. When the price of meat rises, pig farms are generally willing to delay the slaughter for a few days, on the one hand, it can increase the single weight of pigs, on the other hand, it can increase income because of the price increase. Therefore, the rise in pork prices is also mixed with human factors.
A related person from the Ministry of Agriculture said that the low number of live pigs is the main reason for the increase in pig prices. "Since the second half of 20 14, the price of pork has been continuously low, and the meager profit has led to a decrease in pig breeding. By February of 20 16, the number of live pigs in China was 3,667110,000, which was about 2 1.7% lower than the peak of 468.56 million in 20 13, and about 389.73 million in the same period of 20 15.
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of Souzhu. com, believes that the current rise in pork prices is indeed caused by insufficient supply at the supply end. "From 20 13 to 20 15, the whole industry was in a state of loss for three consecutive years, which caused a large number of pig farms to go bankrupt and quit, and the production capacity dropped sharply; At the same time, due to environmental problems, the pig farm was demolished from the beginning of 20 14, further causing insufficient production capacity. "
In addition to the above supply chain reasons, there are also some natural reasons. Last year1February, most parts of China suffered from "century cold wave", and the temperature dropped sharply, resulting in severe diarrhea of piglets and low survival rate. This has affected the supply of fat pigs after the Spring Festival, and some slaughtering enterprises even suffered a "broken file" and could not receive pigs.
press sb for an interview
Is the government going to control this round of pork inflation?
Not long ago, there was a news circulating in various WeChat groups that the reserve meat was put on March 25th. The total amount put in five provinces was 1.85 million tons, but it has not been confirmed so far. In any case, the price of pork has not been controlled, and it remains at a high level today.
In this regard, Feng Yonghui said that even if the news is true, then 20,000 tons is still too little to make up for the gap in the pork market. "Reserve pork is actually an enterprise's inventory, which is usually a four-to six-month rotation cycle. This year's situation has been bad, so companies don't have much reserves. To put it bluntly, they are out of stock, which is why the government has not put it on a large scale. "
Looking back at the National Development and Reform Commission's March 19 issue, it is mentioned that as of March 9, the national average ex-factory price of live pigs was RMB 8.62 per kilogram/Kloc-0, up 52.8% year-on-year. The price of pig grain is 9.13:1,which has entered the yellow warning area. "Pig-grain parity" refers to the ratio of live pig price to corn price, which is an important indicator to measure pork price. The higher the price of pig food, the higher the breeding profit, and the higher the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column. At the same time, this is also the most important reference factor for the government to regulate pork prices. It is understood that the green area of the price comparison of pig food is 5.5:1to 8.5:1.Recently, the price of live pigs has exceeded 10 yuan, the price of corn is about 90 cents a catty, and the price comparison of pig food has exceeded10.5:1.
The relevant departments of the state will, in accordance with the provisions of the Regulation Plan for Alleviating the Periodic Fluctuation of the Pig Market Price, start the regulation plan in a timely manner, and strive to alleviate the large fluctuation of the pig market price. In this regulation plan, it is stipulated that when the price of pig food is in the yellow area, the Development and Reform Commission will take the lead in consultation and put forward a central frozen pork reserve plan, which will be organized and implemented by the Ministry of Commerce.
pay close attention
When will the skyrocketing pork price fall back?
Feng Yonghui introduced that the replenishment of the supply side is beginning to resume now, but it needs a process. According to his prediction, the supply delivered to the terminal will take at least 10 months. He predicted that after September this year, there may be a round of price decline. Zhan Jiabao believes that the current price of pork has basically reached an all-time high, but he said that the price increase is not obvious compared with previous years, and there may be human factors, so it is impossible to predict the subsequent price fluctuations.
In fact, in addition to the government's reserve meat and farmers' supplements, there are also measures to increase imported meat and increase subsidies for low-income households, college students and other groups. However, at present, there is no corresponding regulatory policy in the country.
Similar to the price of pork seen by the reporter of Beiqing Daily in the supermarket, Feng Yonghui said that the price of imported pork is really cheap, almost half of that in China. But "no country in the world can fill the gap in China. The pork market in China is 50 million tons, while the global pork trade volume is only 6 million tons". Although the country has been increasing the proportion of imported meat, 1 month increased by 66%, and February increased by 1 10%, but the demand is still in short supply.
At the same time, the above-mentioned experts said that many farms and slaughterhouses were in a state of loss or small profits, which was a great blow to the live pig market when the price of pork continued to fall from 20 13 to 20 15. At present, the price of pork is rising, and it is also a good thing to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to fill the column by market regulation. At this time, if we import blindly, it may further dampen the enthusiasm of domestic farmers, and the pork market will be difficult to adjust and recover in the short term.
Financial observation
Don't let the "pig cycle" cycle play out.
In aquaculture, there is such a "pig cycle", and the general trajectory is: the price of meat rises-the stock of sows increases greatly-the supply of live pigs increases-the price of meat falls-a large number of sows are eliminated-the supply of live pigs decreases-and the price of meat rises. This cycle usually cycles once every two to three years, so "one year's profit, one year's flat, one year's loss" has become the "curse" of farmers.
At first glance, such adjustment is in line with the law of supply and demand in the market. However, we should also see that some people have paid a heavy price in this "lagging" market regulation, and such tragedies are staged periodically.
In a market economy, market regulation is an after-the-fact regulation, that is to say, only when the price fluctuates first, the participants in economic activities will expand or reduce the supply of goods at any time. Therefore, the imbalance between supply and demand affects the price, and there is already a time lag, and it takes some time from making a decision to getting results. The characteristics of aquaculture determine that the growth cycle from piglets to fat pigs is very long, which leads to the lagging market regulation of this industry.
From 20 13 to 20 15, when the pork price continued to be low, many enterprises had to close down, which resulted in a decrease in the supply of live pigs. Now, with the continuous rise of pork prices, more and more farmers make up for it, which may bring about the next round of price decline. However, we don't want to see the next "pig cycle" staged. Perhaps, the way to prevent the "pig cycle" from continuing is not only to educate farmers in the market and make them realize that they can't blindly follow the trend, but more importantly, the relevant departments should also carry out scientific and predictive macro-control.