In the eliminated chicken and egg market, the market trend is different. Among them, the price of eggs is strong. However, with the gradual decline of market demand and the escalation of market warning, it is expected that the price of eggs will rise and fall.
In the grain market, the difficulty of purchasing and storing corn increased sharply after the year. The amount of corn in North China, Huanghuai and other places is not smooth and loose, and the auction of directional rice is superimposed. The spot corn is under pressure and the price continues to fall.
In the wheat market, the price of wheat may return to the "high point" of the same period last year. After all, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the domestic spot wheat price rose to 1.7 yuan/kg three times in the first half of last year!
So, what happened in the market, today we will focus on analysis!
The eliminated chicken market, 1 month, supported by the Spring Festival holiday, boosted consumer demand, and the price of eliminated chicken stabilized after rising, and the average price continued to be weak. Among them, the national average price of eliminated chickens in 1 month was only 4.58 yuan/kg, down 14.9% from the previous month.
It is understood that during the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, holiday consumption is good, the rural market is active, and the orders of slaughter enterprises increase. Before the Spring Festival, the number of old chickens eliminated in the market increased. However, after entering the post-holiday market, the demand inertia dropped, and the breeding end was moved forward by the elimination cycle of old chickens. At the end of the month, the scale of elimination is reduced, the purchase and sale are sluggish, and the price is sideways! According to institutional analysis, the average culling age of old chickens in 1 month is 543 days. In the 1 1 production area monitored by the organization, the culling scale of old chickens reached1960,000, an increase of 14% from the previous month. It can be seen that the holiday effect has stimulated the market demand and supported the rebound in the price of culled chickens!
Theoretically speaking, the elimination scale of old chickens in February is mostly from September of 2 1 to June of 10, and the elimination pressure of chicks and old chickens is still relatively high. However, many chickens were eliminated before the holiday, and the price of eggs remained high after the holiday, so farmers' enthusiasm for elimination would be poor! However, due to the post-holiday demand inertia, the market just needs insufficient meat products. In February, the price of eliminated chicken will maintain a sideways fluctuation trend, and the price lacks the basis of obvious decline!
In the egg market, according to the trend of egg price around the Spring Festival in recent five years, the egg price dropped by more than 10% after the year, which was also in line with expectations. However, due to the high prices of corn and soybean meal, the calorie deviation of chicken seedlings has been insufficient since last year. 1 At the end of the month, the number of domestic laying hens was11770,000.
With the resumption of work in all walks of life, there is a demand for centralized replenishment in the post-holiday terminal market. Due to the low inventory in all aspects of market production and sales, traders are in a high mood to get goods. Recently, the price of eggs has been strong, and the price has gradually increased by about 4.58 yuan/kg! However, with the end of stocking in the terminal market, the downstream demand is still in the off-season, the household consumption power is biased, and the domestic production and marketing market, the egg price has entered the stage of sideways consolidation!
Personally, for the trend of egg price in February, due to the high cost of breeding, there is little pressure on egg inventory. Although family demand is weak, with the gradual improvement of collectivization demand, especially the return of students and migrant workers, consumer support still exists. Although the price of eggs is expected to adjust slightly, the downward adjustment is limited. Personally, I think that in February, the domestic production and marketing market, the price of eggs was roughly sideways at 4.
Wheat market, as we all know, in the first half of last year, the price of wheat hit record highs, and the quotations of some factories rose to more than 1.7 yuan/kg! The factors that caused the soaring price of wheat in the first half of last year were: on the one hand, the scale of wheat breeding increased greatly, the surplus grain at the grassroots level was insufficient at the beginning of the year, and the supply was obviously tight; On the other hand, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international food prices have risen sharply, and the domestic wheat market has been constantly following up, which has also led to a record high in wheat!
However, in February this year, the wheat market was difficult to return to the "high light"!
On the one hand, the price of wheat has gone up in 22 years, and the prices of wheat and corn have been upside down. Wheat lacks feeding basis, and grain enterprises are concentrated in flour mills. However, due to the restriction of masks and the change of residents' eating habits, the demand for pasta has weakened. Since the third and fourth quarters of last year, flour consumption has deviated, and some small and medium-sized flour enterprises have maintained a low operating rate all the year round, which has also led to a relatively loose domestic spot wheat supply at this stage! According to institutional data, the new supply of wheat in 22/23 was 65.438+0.47 billion tons, up by 820,000 tons year-on-year, the total consumption of wheat was 65.438+0.27 billion tons, down by 6.5438+0.869 million tons year-on-year, and the supply balance of wheat was as high as 6.5438+0.957 million tons!
On the other hand, in the short term, the demand for flour has entered the off-season, while the temporary storage wheat and the minimum purchase price wheat continue to be auctioned, and the rotation of wheat in various places has also increased its performance in the market. Supply pressure still exists. It is estimated that there are still 40 million tons of temporary storage wheat in China, and the transaction price of temporary storage wheat will also become the "wind vane" of domestic spot wheat prices!
Therefore, affected by multiple factors, the price of wheat in February may be dominated by sideways weakness, and the quotation of enterprises hovers around 1.58~ 1.63 yuan/kg. However, due to the high price of wheat put into storage by traders, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level is gradually decreasing, and the downward space of wheat prices is limited!
Warning escalation! The price of eggs eliminated in February is weak, and the price of wheat is hard to return to the "high light"! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!