Sheep prices, on the other hand, have been in the doldrums for more than a year, and current sheep prices are likewise in the red.
Milk, although not yet below the cost price, but has been close to the cost price, a dozens of cows on the farm, a month to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The price of some freshwater fish has also fallen below the cost line.
What's wrong with the farming industry, approaching the Spring Festival, protein demand increased, but prices fell instead of rising?
Hog prices fell below the cost line
January 8, the price of hogs bull, the whole line rose, the Northeast District rose 0.3-0.375 yuan, the price came to 7.3-8.2 yuan.
North China rose 0.2-0.325 yuan, the price came to 7.6-8.3 yuan.
Eastern China prices rose 0.2-0.3 yuan, with prices coming to 7.7-8.5 yuan.
Southwest China prices rose 0.25-0.4 yuan, with prices coming to 7.1-8.2 yuan.
Central China rose 0.3-0.55 yuan, with prices coming to 7.5-8.4 yuan.
While the national hog prices ushered in a substantial increase, but the national average price is only about 7.6 yuan, while the current feed cost prices projected that the cost of hog farming as high as 8-8.5 yuan, and now the price of hogs is still below the cost line, more than half of the hog farms in the market in the loss.
Pig prices fell below the cost line, there are mainly several aspects of the logic:
One is because of the previous irrational pressure on the fence hogs and the second fattening of the large pigs are not completely out of the market, the market still has a certain amount of stock, the distance from the Chinese New Year is getting closer and closer to the farmers out of the fence to improve the enthusiasm.
The second is because pork consumption by the impact of the epidemic, has not returned to normal levels.
Thirdly, because of the strong ability of grouped farms to control costs, the current price of hogs is still above the cost line, the rate of grouped farms hogs to keep at the normal level.
However, some industry insiders predict that with the recent sharp decline in pork prices, superimposed on the Spring Festival favorable force, the market backlog of hogs will be accelerated consumption.
Combined with the price of hogs fell below the cost line will inevitably cause the breeding end of the price of selling, the follow-up of hog prices are expected to warm up, but I'm afraid that the magnitude of the warm-up is limited, the more desirable state will be restored to the cost of 8-8.5 yuan above and below the cost line.
Live sheep prices a fall
Price system shows that Hebei Tangxian small-tailed cold sheep string 12/catty, fine wool sheep string 12.3 yuan/catty, 12.6 yuan/catty of Xinmin sheep; Shandong Yanwo small-tailed cold sheep string 12.1 yuan/catty, fine wool sheep string 12 yuan/catty, 13.3 yuan/catty of Xinmin sheep.
As the country's two important fattening sheep base, its price slump on behalf of the country's sheep price slump.
Sheep prices have been in the doldrums for more than a year, and the recent epidemic prevention and control measures to optimize the end of the food and beverage consumption resumed, superimposed on the price of mutton with the decline in sheep prices and decline, and further stimulate the demand for mutton consumption, but the price of sheep is still down, I think there are mainly so many reasons:
1, the sheep's production capacity is still at a high level, and the current production capacity is still oversupplied.
2, the price of live sheep continued to be low, farmers accelerated clearance, and even eliminated ewes, further increasing the supply pressure on the market.
3, although the price of lamb has fallen, but the price of pork fell even more, grabbing the lamb consumer market.
4, affected by the epidemic, the terminal food and beverage consumption downturn, a large gap from the normal level.
In the short term, the state of oversupply of live sheep capacity is difficult to change, the price of sheep is also difficult to stop the decline rebound.
But after the consumption of the Spring Festival period, superimposed on the subsequent restoration of food and beverage consumption, previously expected to change in June before the sheep price is expected to rebound in advance.
Dairy farmers to open the "milk kill cow" mode
Recently, the domestic raw milk trading reference price from the previous minimum of not less than 3.93 yuan / kg price down to 3.85 yuan / kg price, and this price has been close to the north of 3.5-3.8 yuan / kg cost price.
Seemingly milk purchase price above the cost line, but dairy farmers have been in the loss, according to a dairy farmer who has raised more than 30 years of dairy cows, said the current cost of a cow per day in the breeding of about 80 yuan, a breeding volume of dozens of head of farms, a month to lose hundreds of thousands of yuan.
The main reason for dairy farmers to lose money, on the one hand, because of the higher farming costs, in order to ensure the nutrition of dairy cows, cows eat more than green storage with ears of young corn, corn prices, dairy cattle grass costs up to more than 800 yuan / ton.
On the other hand, the consumer side of the downturn, from last year onwards yogurt sales have been in a state of decline, and recently with the student vacation, the supply of student milk stagnation, dairy producers production decline, the use of fresh milk plummeted.
In addition, to ease the short-term oversupply of raw milk spray powder, stocks also to abundant, according to reports, many small and medium-sized dairy companies in 2023 may no longer need to buy raw milk from farms.
By the impact of the abundant supply, many farmers of the expiration of the milk subscription contract and did not receive a new year's subscription contract, dairy farmers had to pour the milk, in addition to reduce losses, dairy farmers can only kill cows to sell beef, although this behavior can not recover losses, but at least the follow-up does not need to continue to lose money, after all, cows live to eat, and a cow a day to eat the cost of a few tens of dollars alone.
Worse is due to the various dairy enterprises spray powder inventory is at a high level, a number of industry insiders expect 2023 domestic raw milk prices will further decline, and the improvement may take 3-4 years, even if it is a more ideal state, but also need to 2025.
Some freshwater fish prices are in the doldrums
It is understood that the bait coefficient has generally increased by 0.05-0.1 in 2022, and some freshwater fish farmers have already faced different degrees of losses due to the impact of persistently high feed cost prices.
Freshwater fish prices are low and difficult to rise, on the one hand, because of the impact of the epidemic, the circulation around the generally low, on the other hand, is the higher amount of breeding, making the freshwater fish market oversupply.
Take California perch, the current California perch farming costs an average of about 11 yuan / catty, while the market price of only 10 yuan / catty.
For the subsequent price trend of freshwater fish, there are two views in the industry:
One believes that the past New Year's Day has not been able to drive the market to recover, then the Spring Festival is also difficult to form a favorable consumption, the market will continue to be a general consumption of the downturn.
The other is that, with the infection of the peak of the past, the market consumption is expected to recover, during the Spring Festival there is hope to usher in a wave of consumption peak, which in turn led to the rise in fish prices.