On September 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released the data on the price changes of commercial housing sales in August 2020. According to the monthly data, the prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities are mixed, but the overall performance is stable. According to the data of August and the changes of housing price index in cities in recent four years, Zhong Fang think tank combs the changes of the property market and tries to explore the logic behind the rise and fall of urban housing prices.
Which cities are rising and which cities are falling?
On September 14, Peng Kong, Chief Statistician of Urban Department of National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in August 2020. From the ring-on-ring data, the sales price of new commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% from the previous month, and the increase rate was 0. 1 percentage point higher than that of the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose by 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively.
The sales price of second-hand houses increased by 1.0% month-on-month, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.7%, 0.8%, 1.7% and 1.65 and 438+0% respectively. 3 1 The sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and the increase rate was 0. 1 percentage point higher than last month; The sales price of second-hand houses rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 0. 1 percentage point from last month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in 35 third-tier cities increased by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively, with an increase of 0.2 and 0. 1 percentage point respectively.
Year-on-year data show that the sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities rose by 3.9% and 6.9% respectively in August, with the increase rates being 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. The sales price of new commercial housing in second-tier cities increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0. 1 percentage point from last month. The sales price of second-hand houses rose by 2.0% year-on-year, the same as last month. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in second-tier cities increased flat or decreased year-on-year 16 months. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings and second-hand residential buildings in third-tier cities increased by 4.5% and 1.8% respectively, both of which were the same as last month, and both were the same or decreased in 17 months.
From the analysis of a single city, Huizhou, with the largest increase in new commercial housing, rose by 1.9%, while Yinchuan, Jinzhou, Tangshan, Wenzhou, Jining, Jinhua, Wuxi and xi 'an rose by more than 1%. Taiyuan, Nanchang, Jinan, Anqing, Jiujiang, Changde, Guilin, Beihai, Nanchong, the decline did not exceed 1%. The biggest year-on-year increase in new commercial housing is in Yinchuan (17.6%), Tangshan (15.4%), Xining (13.4%), Xuzhou (1.6%) and Jinzhou (1.6%). Cities with a year-on-year decrease of more than 1% include Anqing (-3. 1%), Luzhou (-1.7%), Shaoguan (-1.6%), Guiyang, Beihai, Changde, Zhengzhou, Nanchong, Jinan and Yueyang.
From the above data of urban housing price fluctuation, it can be found that most cities are third-and fourth-tier cities. The housing price base in these cities is relatively low, and the purchase restriction policy is relatively loose. There are some fluctuations in the short term, but there is not much room for ups and downs in the long term. Most first-and second-tier cities have effectively curbed the price increase under strict control policies.
If we extend the data of house price changes to four years, we can find that the increase of house price in the past four years is obviously narrower than before this round of regulation, and the phenomenon of skyrocketing and plunging is rare.
China Housing Think Tank collated the data of the same caliber house price changes from 2065438+September 30, 2006 to August 2006 of the National Bureau of Statistics, and found that the four-year house price increase in many cities was not as good as that in the previous year. For example, the price index of new commercial housing in Shenzhen in August 20 16 is 149.2, which means that the annual increase is 49.2% based on August 20 15, while the cumulative increase from August 20 16 to August 2020 is only 4.96%; Shanghai's house price index in August 20 16 was 140.07, and the cumulative increase so far is only 9.88%.
Of course, from the data of second-hand housing, we will find that it is very different from new commercial housing. For example, the four-year growth rate of new commercial housing in Shenzhen is 4.96%, and that of second-hand housing is 27. 14%, which shows that the price limit policy of new commercial housing artificially depresses the housing price data, resulting in the price of new and second-hand housing upside down. Therefore, for some first-and second-tier cities with very strict price limit policies, the price data of second-hand houses are more valuable for reference.
Judging from the price increase in recent four years, the average price increase of new commercial housing reached 34. 18%, with an average compound annual growth rate of 8%. In the past four years, Xi 'an (7 1.69%), Xuzhou (62.80%), Sanya (57.06%), Chengdu (55.28%), Hohhot (55.08%), Tangshan (52.30%) and Kunming (52.30%) In the past four years, Shenzhen (4.96%), Shanghai (9.88%), Tianjin (10.82%), Xiamen (12.0 1%), Nanjing (14.45%), Beijing (60. Wuxi (45.78%), Jining (4 1.42%), Tangshan (4 1.38%), Shenyang (35.27%) and Qinhuangdao (35.04%) were the top gainers in four years. Mudanjiang (0.5%), Shanghai (5.77%), Shijiazhuang (7.54%), Beijing (7.77%) and Xiamen (8. 12%) ranked lower.
Despite strict regulation, the rising trend of house prices in some cities has not diminished. 20 15 Up to now, the housing prices in Xi 'an have been rising for 53 months, while those in Xuzhou have been rising for 55 months, ranking the top two in the four-year cumulative increase list.
For these two cities, the sustained rise in housing prices in recent years generally includes the following reasons: First, the housing price base is relatively low, and this round of regulation coincides with the downturn in housing prices. Take Xi 'an as an example. Before this round of regulation, the house price in Xi 'an was only seven or eight thousand yuan per square meter, which was relatively low in second-tier cities. Second, the construction of large-scale new districts will drive up land prices, which in turn will drive up house prices. Third, the talent introduction policy drives the population inflow, which leads to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand.
According to the statistics of four-year compound growth rate, there are1/kloc-0 in 70 large and medium-sized cities, accounting for15.7%; There are 2 cities with a compound growth rate of 8%~ 10%, accounting for 30%; There are 38 cities with compound growth rate below 8%, accounting for 54.3%. The compound annual growth rate of second-hand houses is even lower, only Wuxi, Jining and Tangshan exceed 8%, and the compound annual growth rate of house prices in more than half of the cities is below 6%.
As can be seen from the above data, it will be more and more difficult to speculate in real estate under the tone of "staying in the house and not speculating". The superposition of occupation cost and transaction cost basically covers the investment income. From the perspective of investment income, real estate is not the best investment choice.
The property market is no longer "skimming"? Supervision is more like "beating hamsters"
20 18 When interviewed by the media, Meng Xiaosu, the head of the national original house reorganization, once summarized the law of the property market as a "jumping" rhythm, that is, about three years is a cycle.
In 2006, the property market was hot, and in 2007~2008, it fell into a downturn due to regulation; In 2008, in the face of the global financial crisis, the stimulus policy was introduced, and the house price rebounded immediately, from 20 1 1 to 2012; 20 13 housing prices rose, and 20 14~20 15 introduced austerity policies; On 20 16, the property market resumed rising under the influence of the "destocking policy", and then the regulation of the property market began on September 30.
According to Meng Xiaosu's forecast, the property market will "jump up" again in 20 19, but the continuous regulation has broken this cyclical law.
Even when China's economy is under great pressure, the government has not stimulated the real estate as before. "Don't speculate on housing" and "Don't use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy" have been repeatedly mentioned and constantly strengthened. The law of policy periodicity was broken, and the property market entered a moderate rising stage with stability as the main factor.
The goal of this round of regulation is very clear, that is, to stabilize the word, "stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices, and stabilize expectations", and adhere to the principle of implementing the main responsibility due to the city's policy.
House price has become an important regulation index. For cities with excessive housing price increases, most cities will choose to take the initiative to tighten control measures; In cities with poor supervision, local governments will face the risk of being held accountable and interviewed.
In June and July this year, the property markets in Shenzhen, Dongguan, Nanjing, Wuxi and other cities showed signs of overheating, and the local governments immediately took action to increase regulation. It's like a game of "beating hamsters". If the control measures are not effective and the price increase is too large, we must resolutely crack down.
Source: China Real Estate News.
Original title: In the fourth anniversary of regulation and control, which cities are still arbitrarily rising in housing prices?