The health beverage market has created new "quasi-listed" players.
Recently, the coconut water brand Vita COCO officially submitted the S- 1 prospectus to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on September 27th, US Eastern Time, and plans to list on NASDAQ with the stock code "COCO". Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and UBS are co-lead underwriters. According to estimates by Bloomberg and Seeking Alpha, the IPO valuation may exceed $2 billion.
The origin of coconut water is related to an accidental trip to Brazil by two founders. Michael cole Kirban and Ira Liran, two co-founders of Vita Coco, found that sweet coconut water is common in Brazil, but this kind is rare in the United States. In 2004, they chose to establish ——All Market Inc, the predecessor of Vitaco Company.
According to IRI customization research, Vita Coco has become the leading brand of coconut water, with a market share of 46% in the United States, 36% ahead of the second place, and sold in more than 6,543,800 distribution points in 24 countries around the world.
According to the prospectus, in the first half of 200019, 2020 and 20021year, the net sales of Vita Coco were US$ 284 million, US$ 310 million and US$1770,000, respectively, up by 9.5% and/kloc year-on-year. The increase in income is mainly due to the increase in sales of Vita Coco coconut water.
Vita Coco, a beverage brand founded in 2004, has attracted many industry giants and stars to participate in the stock market, including the Verlinvest family associated with Anheuser-Busch InBev, Hua Bin Group, the parent company of Red Bull China, movie star Matthew McConaughey and singer Madonna. As the top ten brands of natural drinks in the United States (excluding alcoholic drinks and milk) (about 654.38+0.3 billion market size), what color is the first round of this subdivision track?
After white peach and green orange, coconut can be said to be the "top flow" of tea drinking in recent years. From Ruixing's "raw coconut latte" to the "raw coconut coconut" that likes tea, and then to Naixue tea's "aggressive coconut smoothie", sweet and refreshing coconut drinks have successfully swept the tea market. This trend of "everything can be coconut" has further extended to other fields, from coffee and tea to bread and rice, and then to various coconut-flavored toiletries. It seems that all the products linked to coconut are on fire.
Tea drinks and toiletries with coconut as auxiliary materials have been successfully "out of the ring", but in sharp contrast, coconut drinks with coconut as the main raw material are "not fragrant" this time.
Coconut milk beverage, represented by coconut juice, has been difficult to turn the tide since 20 14 under the general trend that the beverage market is slow to sell due to the impact of new tea. According to public information, from 20 13 to 20 17, the annual output value of Coconut Tree Group was 4.456 billion yuan, 4.45 billion yuan, 40.2 10 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan respectively, and the output value continued to decline. By 20 19, its revenue is only. The prospectus of the first happy family in Coconut Juice, which was just listed on June 2 this year, also shows that its income in 2020 is only 65.438+24.7 million yuan, which is lower than 65.438+42.4 million yuan in 2065.438+09 and 65.438+35.5 million yuan in 2065.438+08.
Another derivative drink of coconut, "healthy and pure natural" coconut water, seems to have been tepid for seven years since 20 14 entered the China market. This market segment with many multinational beverage giants seems to be facing growth difficulties. In addition to Vita Coco, there are Zike (repurchased by the founder), Malee Coco and Harmless Harvest, which were once owned by Coca-Cola.
According to Nielsen data, although the sales of coconut water in the United States increased slightly by 4.4% under the influence of the epidemic, the sales of Zico decreased by 46% in the same period. Subsequently, Coca-Cola announced that it would update its product mix, stop production and eliminate many "underperforming products" including Zico coconut water, such as Odwala juice, Coca-Cola Life, Vibrant Cherry Diet Coke and Tab Diet soda. It is reported that Mark Rampolla, the early founder of ZICO, and PowerPlant Ventures, the company he founded, bought back ZICO from Coca-Cola Company for an undisclosed amount.
The same dilemma does not only appear in the international market.
20 15 Vitaco entered the China market with the help of Hua Bin Group, the parent company of Red Bull. The following year, Zico followed suit in China and put it in Tmall flagship store. Coconut water has not been an instant hit since it entered China one after another. Coconut water, as a natural beverage for supplementing water and electrolyte, has a sugar content and calories that meet the standard of "healthy beverage", but it has been overweight by the giants, and the new consumption trend has failed to drive it to become a popular beverage. According to the data released by Euromonitor International, in 20 19, the scale of coconut milk in China only accounted for 0.7% of the bottled water market, compared with bottled water, instant tea, fruit juice and carbonated drinks.
The giant stopped production, the growth was weak and the cost was high. In this case, coconut water boss Vita Coco announced its listing in a high-profile manner.
For the coconut juice "veteran" Vita Coco, the first "contrarian" segment of this track is welcoming a major milestone in the history of brand development. For the healthy beverage market, it is obviously a pivotal node in the process of innovation and development. Back to the company itself, what is its financial situation?
Vita Coco's revenue mainly comes from three sectors, one is coconut aquatic products, the other is its own brand products such as coconut oil, and the third is other products, including Runa and Ever &；; Products such as Ever and PWR LIFT. In the first half of 20021year,140,000, $40.48 million and $510,000, respectively, accounting for 70%, 27% and 3% of the total revenue.
According to the prospectus, in the first half of 200019, 2020 and 20021year, the total sales of Vita Coco were $284 million, $310 million and1770 million, respectively, up by 9.5% and/kloc. In 2020, the net profit increased by 247% compared with 20 19, and in the first half of 2002/kloc-0, it increased by 43.2% compared with the US$ 6.578 million in the same period last year.
The income growth of Vita Coco is mainly due to the growth of its main product coconut water. According to the prospectus, during the epidemic, the sales volume of Vita Coco increased by over 100% year-on-year. IRI customized survey data shows that as of September 5, 20021year, the sales volume of Vita Coco coconut water in 104, 52, 26 and 13 weeks increased by 13%, 24%, 33% and 29% respectively. The sales situation shows a continuous growth trend.
In terms of gross profit, due to the continuous increase of performance cost and transportation cost, although its income increased by 65,438+05% against the trend under the epidemic, its gross profit rate also decreased from 34.4% in the first half of 2020 to 29.9% and 438+0 in the first half of 2026. The financial report shows that its sales cost has increased from 1 billion USD in the first half of 2020 to10.24 billion USD in the first half of 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 23. 1%. This increase is mainly due to the increase in shipping costs caused by transportation restrictions and port restrictions, especially under the COVID-19 epidemic.
Vita Coco is a light asset layout, and there is no coconut water-related factory. Its supply chain covers all tropical countries, about two-thirds of raw materials come from Asia and one-third from Latin America. Its global supply network covers 65,438+00 countries, including 65,438+05 coconut water plants and five joint packaging facilities.
In addition, thanks to the pursuit of healthy drinks under the epidemic situation and the continuous growth of income in the United States and internationally, the impact of other cost increases on net profit was offset. Although in the first half of 20021,its sales, general affairs and management expenses were $465,438+0,222,000, an increase of 13.2% compared with $364,065,438+0,000 in the same period last year. Marketing expenses increased by USD 6,543.8+USD 4,000, personnel-related expenses increased by USD 6,543.8+USD 8,000, and the company's professional consulting management expenses for listing in the US increased by USD 2 million. In the first half of 2002/kloc-0, Vita Coco finally achieved a net profit of 9.422 million dollars, an increase of 43.2% compared with 6.578 million dollars in the same period last year.
According to Euromonitor, the global coconut water market has expanded to $2 billion. According to the prospectus, during the epidemic period, the sales volume of Vita Coco also increased by more than 65,438+000% year-on-year, and expanded to 24 countries and regions.
In terms of global market share, Britain is the country with the deepest penetration of Vita Coco, with a market share of over 70%; In other European and Asian countries, Vita Coco is still in the development stage. As of June 30th, 20021year, Europe accounted for 60% of its international business, Asia-Pacific accounted for 15% of its international business, and other regions accounted for 25%.
Vita Coco's sales channels include club stores, large wholesalers, online markets such as Amazon, chain pharmacies, supermarkets, independent pharmacies, health food stores and other retailers. According to the prospectus, the sales of KDP, the largest distributor of Vita Coco, and Costco, the largest direct-selling retailer, accounted for about 65,438+09% and 35% of the total sales in 2020, respectively, while other retailers or distributors accounted for less than 65,438+00% of the total sales. They rely too much on major distributors and retailers, or have hidden dangers for their development. Once the sales channel is cut off or the income of related retailers/distributors drops sharply, it will directly affect Coco Vita's products.
From the perspective of subdivided sales channels, in 2020, the performance of coconut water in Mulo+C (Multi Outlet Plus convenience store, various retail channels and convenience stores) has been better than other categories of drinks. Online channels, in 2020, Vita Coco will account for about 6% of the total sales of Amazon business in America; In the year ending August 28th, 20021,the retail sales of Vita Coco increased by 45% year-on-year.
After ZICO, once the second largest coconut juice brand in the United States, stopped production, Vita Coco seems to be a unicorn in the coconut water market segment. In the post-epidemic era, when Vita Coco mainly promoted the single product sales expansion strategy and the sales of coconut aquatic products exceeded 70%, with the rapid changes of consumer preferences, market competition environment and other factors, the single sales channel and drinking scene of coconut water also brought certain uncertainty to Vita Coco's development.
From coconut juice to soda water, to soda water from last year's "fire", low-alcohol wine, to plant drinks. I have to say that the catering industry is also experiencing the iteration of express delivery. It can be said that you sing and I will appear. In addition to marketing stories, capital markets that vote with their feet may pay more attention to actual data: besides the story of healthy low-calorie drinks, what investment value does coconut water have?
According to Euromonitor consulting data, the global coconut water market is US$ 2 billion. In 2020, the global retail sales of non-alcoholic beverages will exceed US$ 952 billion, and it is expected to reach US$ 1.36 trillion by 2025, with a CAGR of 7%.
Judging from the proportion of coconut water in the total amount of non-alcoholic beverages, this is still a relatively small market, and the growth rate is not fast.
From 2004 to 20 13, the annual sales growth of coconut water industry almost doubled, but it has declined since then. According to the data of Euromonitor International, from 20 15 to 20 19, the in-store sales of coconut water in the North American market decreased by 22%, and the sales of head brands including Vita Coco and Zico decreased by 40% at the highest.
Driven by the epidemic, global sales of healthy drinks rose against the trend. In the 26 weeks ending September 5, 20021year, Vita Coco performed well in the domestic market of the United States, promoting the sales growth of coconut water drinks15%; Its own sales also increased by 33% year-on-year, while soda water only increased by 4% in the same period.
However, coconut milk, which is popular all over the world, is cold in China market. The reason is that the consumption habits of coconut juice are far less mature than those in Europe and America, and plant protein drinks such as oat milk, soybean milk and almond milk seem to be more popular with the public. Soymilk, in particular, has a consumption base in China. Coconut water, a sub-category, may not be as popular as carbonated drinks, soda water and other categories, with a wide audience, but there is still room for growth for some sub-groups with specific use scenarios (sports, water replenishment, sugar control, etc.). ).
In addition, Vita Coco still has hidden concerns in terms of cost, distributors and product matrix.
The high cost of coconut water is due to the demand of extraction and packaging at the supply chain end, logistics transportation and preservation. It is understood that the average price of Vitacoco per bottle (330ml) is about 10 yuan, compared with another big coconut water brand, Jike. Compared with the sugar-free low-calorie water currently on the market, a bottle of 480ml is only sold in 5 yuan, and a bottle of functional beverage (250ml) is only sold in 5 yuan. The high storage and transportation costs make it impossible to reduce marginal costs through scale expansion like carbonated beverage manufacturers.
In addition, the usage scene of coconut water in China is rather vague. Compared with Rio cocktail, a low-level representative of "young people enjoy a person's leisure time", Yuan Qi Forest, a representative of soda water, is positioned as "0 sugar, 0 fat, 0 calories and 0". Whether it is low-alcohol wine or soda water, it is necessary to find the user's high-frequency usage scene as a starting point. On the other hand, coconut water, whether it is a daily drinking scene with low sugar and low energy or a hydration scene after exercise, has failed to achieve a strong correlation between the scene and the product. The lack of just-needed users in the core scenario makes it vague in any usage scenario.
In addition, the excessive dependence on the main products and distributors has also laid a hidden danger for its development.
In the first half of 20021,the main product of Vita Coco, coconut water, accounted for 70% of its total revenue, while Vita Coco's own brand products and other products accounted for only 30% of its total revenue. On the other hand, competitor Danone's harmless harvest coconut water brand has a relatively complete product matrix, including fruity coconut water, coconut milkshake, coconut yogurt and other drinks.
In recent years, Vita Coco is also trying to diversify the product matrix, but the results are not significant. In addition to Vita Coco coconut water, coconut oil and coconut milk products, there is also a plant-derived energy drink "Runa" inspired by Ecuador and a local plant-derived drink ever &；; Once, like the PWR elevator, water was injected into protein.
The audience of a single product is relatively limited. In the case that the growth rate of coconut juice market is not fast, if other products are unsuccessful, its overall revenue growth will be limited.
In addition, according to the prospectus, KDP, the largest distributor of Vita Coco, and Costco, the largest retail outlet, account for about 65,438+09% and 35% of the total sales in 2020, respectively, while the sales of other retailers or distributors account for less than 65,438+00%. If the cooperation relationship between Vitacoco and downstream retailers/distributors changes, it will adversely affect the company's financial situation and operating performance.
The cost is high, the use scenario is vague, and it relies too much on the main products and distributors ... In the niche market of coconut milk, how should Vita Coco tell a good story to the capital market?