Previously, the domestic soybean meal quotations of some coastal oil mills quoted up to 5700 yuan / ton, and spot egg production and marketing of wholesale average price smoothly rose above 6 yuan / kg, for the domestic hog market, the price of hogs has also risen above 14 yuan / catty, the price rose to a high of 18 months, the market retail price of pork has also gradually risen to 20 ~ 25 yuan / catty or so, a variety of agricultural products prices continue to create the year's high, which also Exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, recently, by the market multi-purpose game, agricultural products market warning upgrade, prices show new changes! Specific analysis is as follows:
One, the egg price "take off", this month's increase of up to 0.76 yuan / kg!
Recently, the domestic egg prices have fallen, but, due to market supply and demand game, the domestic production and marketing market, egg prices are still fluctuating strong, at present, the average price of eggs in the domestic market production area rose into the "6 yuan era", the price of 6.01 yuan / catty, the production area of the eggs to go price, the cumulative increase in this month reached 0.76 yuan! The price of eggs rose as much as 14.5%, egg prices "took off", rose more than 20% year-on-year!
Of course, the data monitoring for the farm end of the egg selling price, not the market retail price, according to my understanding, from the netizen feedback, at present, the domestic north and south of the majority of areas, the retail price of eggs generally rose above 6.5 yuan / catty, part of the consumer cities, supermarkets, egg prices rose above 7 yuan / catty!
Egg prices "take off", the off-season, the root cause is the imbalance between supply and demand, the breeding side of the capacity is insufficient, the inventory is maintained at a low level, the number of new laying hens this month to continue the trend of decreasing! However, after the National Day holiday, due to the market hoarding consumption, the market willingness to replenish stock, superimposed, the mask problem emanates, the egg transfer is difficult, the downstream market has a certain panic, replenishment willingness to increase, which exacerbates the downstream market walk! And domestic feed costs continue to rise, further supporting the egg prices stronger!
Because in the short term, egg supply pressure still exists, the market will still maintain the performance of the high level of shock, for November, the basic trend of domestic egg prices, I believe that the production and marketing market, egg prices are still oscillating strong trend, the price or will reach new highs!
Two, the pig price "fall", the price trend back!
Subject to the hog price stage rise obviously, the market rose irrationally reflecting the official one after another to introduce the strategy of regulation, the market hog prices over the rise gradually cooled down, hog prices high altitude "fall", the price of the performance of the rational retracement! At present, the current round of pig prices ushered in 3 consecutive decline, slaughterhouse offer fell to 13.61 yuan / catty, compared with the previous day, pig prices fell 0.22 yuan, the domestic market hog prices generally show "green" performance!
The hog price upward trend retracement, the root cause is the market supply and demand pattern of obvious changes! On the one hand, the domestic consumption support is insufficient, the market demand is weak; on the other hand, the market blind bullish mood cooling, recognize the price of the fence emotions steeply, scale pig enterprises to speed up the pace of the market, the supply of large pigs continue to loosen, the domestic butchery enterprises smooth collection of pigs, by the lack of support for the consumption of slaughtering enterprises, the trend of the price pressure, the price of pigs showed a high and low performance!
But, from the market feedback, the northern region, pig prices downward amplitude has slowed down the performance of the situation from the hogs out, due to the Northeast, North China, pig prices fell sharply, in some areas, low-priced hogs are about to bottom out at 13 yuan / catty, the market retail hog farms to recognize the price of the enthusiasm for the fence has fallen, the pressure on the fence as well as the sale of the mood has increased slightly, so, although, the price of pigs continue to fall, the next 2 ~ 3 days, hog prices further down, but the northern market price sentiment or will rebound, pig prices in the short term "easy to fall hard to rise", but there is still a risk of retracement!
Three, soybean meal market change!
Recently, the domestic soybean meal market continued to strengthen, due to higher international grain prices, soybean import costs increased significantly in October, domestic imports of soybeans into the port of the scale of the small, the mainstream oil plant inventory is not enough, the machine rate remains at a low level, the oil plant supply of soybean meal is small, and by the market demand is steeply increasing, the breeding end of the phenomenon of hoarding is more, the feed enterprises just need to be stronger, the domestic spot soybean meal market continues to go up, the domestic market. Previously, Dongguan, Guangdong, part of the oil mill offer rose to 5700 yuan / ton!
However, due to the domestic soybean meal quotes sideways high, the market demand showed a gradual shrinkage of the performance, recently, the domestic spot soybean meal quotes to shock weak, the domestic mainstream oil mills soybean meal quotes 5260 ~ 5680 yuan / ton, the market continues to be "weak north and south strong" performance, of which, in Shandong, the oil mills quotes 5350 yuan / ton, Guangdong part of the coastal offer is still 5680 yuan / ton!
In the short term, due to tight market supply and demand, the soybean meal market will remain high shock performance, but, from the Customs data to understand, 11 ~ December, the scale of soybean imports or will reach 18 million tons, the market supply pressure or will gradually weaken, soybean meal market will have a weak trend!
Four, sheep price gripping!
"Pork is catching up with the expensive lamb!" Recently, some users feedback, of course, the price of pork chops rose to 30 ~ 33 yuan / catty, the price is approaching the level of lamb chops! Superimposed, the rapid rise in domestic hog prices, pulling the price level of pork prices rebound, the domestic market in the north and south of the ordinary pork prices rose to 22 ~ 26 yuan / kg, pork ribs, especially ribbed pork chop prices rose to 35 yuan / kg or so, but in the lamb market, according to official data, the domestic wholesale market of agricultural products, the average price of lamb to maintain at 67 ~ 68 yuan / kg or so, in the author's hometown in southwest Lu , the price of ordinary mutton chops at 33~34 yuan / kg, mutton prices at 37~38 yuan / kg or so, recently, the performance of mutton prices is relatively stable, the price change is not big!
According to institutional analysis, mutton prices have stabilized, the root cause is the domestic fattening sheep market situation is too gripping, although, into the fourth quarter, the domestic consumer market mutton consumption into the seasonal peak season, but, because of the last few years, by the mask problem, the level of income of the residents fell back sharply, in the author's hometown, in the last 2 months has been quiet for 2 times, so the residents of the income and expenditure of the cautious mood is higher!
The demand for high-priced beef and mutton is weak, which also limits the strength of the fattening sheep market!
According to market feedback, at present, Shandong region ordinary meat sheep prices hovering around 13.5 ~ 14.5 yuan / catty, the price compared to previous years 17 ~ 18 yuan / catty there is a significant gap! And in the Hebei market, fattening sheep price quotes are only hovering around 13~14 yuan/catty! From the latest farmers trading data to understand, in Shanxi Yuncheng, 30 catties ram selling price of 680 yuan, Anhui Huainan fattening sheep 14 yuan, part of the elimination of the ewe price is only 10 ~ 11 yuan / catty, Huaibei part of the 120 catty meat goat price at 15 ~ 16 yuan / catty or so
Early warning! 10.26 egg prices "take off"! Pig prices "fall", soybean meal market change face, sheep prices heartbreaking! In this regard, how do we see it? The above is the author's personal views, pictures from the network!