Source: College Students' Current Affairs Report 2011-2012 No.65438 +0 No.67.

The first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan has passed in a blink of an eye. In the first half of the year, China's economy maintained a good momentum of steady and rapid development, and continued to develop in the expected direction of macro-control, which greatly envied the world. At the same time, China also faces some outstanding problems. After the publication of the semi-annual economic report of China, there have been a series of remarks such as "hard landing", "stagflation", "macro-control overshoot" and "deadlock in real estate control". In the face of these controversies and even concerns, how should we treat some current hot issues?

1. Look at inflation: Will it get worse?

Some people on the Internet made up such a joke to express their complaints and helplessness about rising prices-2065438+00 market declaration: beans you play, garlic you are cruel, ginger you are army, don't die, medicine you die, apples or something, sugar Gao Zong, oil him. Copper heart is concentric, aluminum is at a new high, gold and gold have a taste, zinc and zinc are thriving, lithium is strong, tin is ordinary, tungsten is not good, molybdenum is empty, titanium is powerful, carbon is unique, potassium is really done, coal is gone, and the market is called lithium steel! Indeed, rising prices are now a topic that people talk about almost every day. From meat, eggs and milk to rice and flour oil, almost everything closely related to our lives is increasing in price.

Since the beginning of this year, people have strongly felt the rise in prices. From June to June, 65438, China's consumer prices rose by 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.4%, 5.3%, 5.5% and 6.4% respectively. The overall price level has been running at a high level and is on the rise. Rising prices are related to thousands of households, especially to the lives of low-and middle-income residents. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary for the state to take stabilizing the overall price level as the primary task of macro-control and take a series of major measures.

Generally speaking, China does not have the basic conditions for vicious or serious inflation at present. First, China's total grain output has maintained growth for seven consecutive years, which is unprecedented in history. This year, summer grain has increased, and the planting area of autumn grain has also increased, which is growing well. If there are no more major disasters, this year's grain production is likely to be another bumper year. Grain is the most basic commodity and has the greatest impact on prices. The central government and governments at all levels attach great importance to agricultural production, have issued a large number of policies to ensure the supply of agricultural and sideline products such as grain, and have done a lot of work in strengthening market circulation management. Adequate supply of agricultural products is an important guarantee for our life and the basis for stable consumer prices. Second, there is almost no shortage of industrial products, and the basic pattern of overcapacity and oversupply of industrial products has not changed. Third, China's economy is running smoothly. In 20 10, China's economic growth rate was1.9%, 10.3%, 9.6% and 9.8% respectively, and it was 9.7% and 9.5% respectively in the first and second quarters of this year, showing a steady downward trend, indicating the economy. How can serious inflation happen under such circumstances? Therefore, we should have an objective estimate of inflation.

So, what causes the current increase in consumer price (CPl) to be high? The main reasons are:

First, it is imported. In response to the financial crisis, the United States has introduced quantitative easing monetary policy twice. The first time was when the crisis broke out until June 20 10. How much currency did it issue? The original figure released by the Federal Reserve is $65,438+$0.8 trillion. When the new financial supervision bills of 2065,438+00,65,438+02,65,438+0 were promulgated, the Fed wanted to disclose the actual situation, and this figure became 3.3 trillion US dollars. Since last year1October 4th 165438+, the Federal Reserve has launched the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, and issued another $600 billion to purchase US Treasury bonds. The United States printed a lot of money, which made the international capital market seriously flooded. A large amount of dollars flow to emerging economies to seek high returns, and China is the first choice. The spread between China and the United States is several percentage points, plus the expectation of RMB appreciation (the RMB actually appreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar last year). As long as you change dollars into RMB deposits, you can make a lot of money without doing anything, with a yield of six or seven percentage points. Why not? Therefore, international capital flows into China through various legal and illegal channels. In order to obtain foreign exchange, the People's Bank of China successfully issued a large amount of money, and the money supply grew rapidly. At the same time, due to the depreciation of the US dollar and artificial speculation, the commodity prices in the international market denominated in US dollars soared, and we purchased a large number of commodities such as iron ore and soybeans, which increased the production costs of enterprises.

Second, in response to the international financial crisis, in 2009 and 20 10, the total amount of new loans in China reached 15.7 trillion yuan. This has made great contributions to resisting the impact of the international financial crisis and maintaining the steady and rapid development of China's economy, which should be fully affirmed. However, to a certain extent, it has also brought the lag effect of excess liquidity, which has had a certain impact on the price increase this year.

The third is the price increase. CPI in China increased by 5.9% in 2008 and was -0.7% in 2009. In the first half of 20 10, the overall price level was still relatively low, and it was not until May that the increase exceeded 3%. In the second half of 20 10, CPI rose rapidly. Compared with the first half of last year, the base of the first half of this year is lower than the same period of last year, and the cumulative effect of the higher increase in the second half of this year, that is, the hikes, will directly affect the increase in the first half of this year. For example, in the first half of last year and the whole year of last year, the CPI rose by 5.4%, and the hikes accounted for 3.3 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the new price increase factor was only 2. 1 percentage point. In June, compared with the same period of last year, CP stopped rising by 6.4%, of which the hikes accounted for 3.7 percentage points, and the new price increase factor was only 2.7 percentage points. The increase of the new price increase factor in these two groups of figures did not exceed 3%.

Structurally, food prices rose by 1 1.8% in the first half of the year, driving the overall price level to rise by 3.5 percentage points, accounting for 64.8% of the year-on-year increase of CP. Among the food prices, meat and poultry and their products rose by 19.7%, aquatic products by1.4%, eggs by 17.7%, grain by 13.9% and fresh fruits by 25.8%. This is undoubtedly conducive to increasing farmers' income. The per capita disposable income of urban households increased by 13.2% year-on-year, while the per capita cash income of rural households was the same.

The ratio increased by 20.4%, indicating that the income growth of rural residents exceeded that of urban residents in the first half of this year. The increase of rural residents by 20% is also rare in history, in which the cash income of farmers' family business increased by 2 1.0%, indicating that farmers still got some benefits. Of course, the rising prices of agricultural means of production have also increased farmers' production costs.

In June this year, the hikes reached the peak of the whole year. Starting from July, the hikes will decrease month by month. If we unswervingly follow the central government's plan, strengthen government responsibility, strengthen market security, reduce circulation costs, and rectify the market price order, it is entirely possible to control the annual CPI increase at around 5%.

Second, discuss foreign exchange: can it be distributed to the people?

In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased rapidly, exceeding the sum of Japan, Russia, Hong Kong, South Korea and India, and it has become the largest creditor with one third of the foreign debt of the United States. By the end of June, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 20 1 1 $3197.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. Someone put forward a bold suggestion: take out a part of the country's foreign exchange reserves and give it to every citizen 10000 yuan and a family of five to give it to 50,000 yuan, so as to "hide wealth among the people".

At the beginning of reform and opening up, China's foreign exchange reserves were only165438+67 billion US dollars in 1978, 198013 billion US dollars, 199610 billion US dollars, and 200 billion US dollars in 2006. In the first half of this year, foreign exchange reserves increased by $350,654.38 billion. By the end of June this year, it had reached $3197.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. At present, the foreign exchange reserves of countries around the world are about 9 trillion US dollars, with China accounting for more than one third.

It is a good thing to have sufficient foreign exchange reserves, which can not only provide a strong guarantee for the import of foreign goods and services necessary for China's economic construction and people's lives, but also provide support for China enterprises to "go global", and can also enhance their influence on China due to changes in the international financial market; Resist the blow. It is generally believed that foreign exchange reserves can guarantee the repayment of foreign exchange and short-term debts needed for six months, so we only need about 780 billion US dollars. Excessive foreign exchange reserves will also bring many problems. First, the national foreign exchange reserves are all purchased by the central bank with the corresponding base currency. At present, China's foreign exchange account has reached 24.6 trillion yuan. These base currencies will also produce multiplier effect in circulation, increase the money supply to obtain investment return or interest, and realize value-added. Investing abroad is risky, and what and how to invest is a very complicated problem.

Some people say that since there are so many foreign exchange reserves, can they be given to the people? In fact, this is a misunderstanding and does not understand the nature of foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange reserve, also known as foreign exchange reserve, refers to the foreign exchange part of the international reserve assets held by a government, which is an asset held by a monetary authority of a country and can be converted into foreign currency at any time. Foreign exchange reserves are the assets and liabilities of the central bank. Because every yuan of foreign exchange must be supported by corresponding people. To make an inappropriate but vivid analogy, just like in a casino, everyone can't use cash directly when they enter the casino to play games. They must first exchange cash for chips of the same value at the counter, and then play games with these chips. If you still have a chip when you are not playing, you can go to the counter to change the corresponding cash and leave. If you lose everything, you can only return empty-handed. So the money on the counter is not entirely owned by the boss. Only at the end of the day can the remaining cash be regarded as the boss's surplus after deducting various costs. Similarly, foreign exchange to China, because it is related to national sovereignty, foreign currency cannot be directly circulated, and it must be converted into RMB before it can be reused. This converted RMB is equivalent to the chips in the casino. When people make money, they have to change RMB into dollars before they can leave. In other words, the nearly $3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves we have now are not foreign exchange assets earned by the state, but are closely linked to the foreign exchange holdings of 24.6 trillion. Whoever wants to use foreign exchange has to change it into RMB, no matter which department or individual you are, it is no exception. For example, where does the registered capital of China Investment Company, a wholly state-owned company established in accordance with the Company Law come from? Instead of being allocated by the People's Bank of China for free, the Ministry of Finance issued bonds to raise the corresponding RMB and handed it over to the People's Bank of China for exchange. Therefore, foreign exchange reserves cannot be distributed to everyone.

3. Talking about housing: Where to go?

After the TV series "Dwelling House" was broadcast, it caused a heated discussion among the audience. Why can fictional stories and plots have such a big realistic response? The audience said that it is mainly because it reflects the bitterness of the urban "house slaves" and reveals the confusion and helplessness of the homeless. In recent years, the problem of excessive housing prices has attracted more and more attention from the society. According to the national depositor survey released by the central bank, more than 70: 6 residents think that house prices are "too high and unacceptable".

In order to promote the stable and healthy development of China real estate market, several cognitive problems must be solved.

1. "Home ownership" or "Home ownership"? The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the idea of "home ownership", which means that everyone should have a house to live in and not sleep on the street, instead of "home ownership", not emphasizing that everyone should own his own house. The Housing and Community Development Act of the United States 1974 proposes to build more houses in the community and sell them to low-income people. At that time, only 63.3% residents in the United States owned houses. After 200 1, the real estate industry developed vigorously, and it was not until the financial crisis that the proportion increased to 68%. The United States has paid an extremely heavy price for raising this 4.7 percentage point. Although the causes of the once-in-a-century financial crisis in the United States are very complicated, it was triggered by the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubble. At present, China's per capita GDP is only about one-fourteenth that of the United States, so it is too early to realize "home ownership", and everyone should own a house.

Second, is it better to walk with one leg or two legs to solve the housing problem? The housing system reform from 65438 to 0998 is of historical significance, which has promoted the rapid development of the real estate industry and made corresponding contributions to the economic growth of China. More importantly, it has greatly improved the living conditions of urban residents in China. 1998 The per capita housing area in China is only 15 square meters, and now it has reached 33 square meters. The proportion of China urban residents owning their own property houses has reached 85%, which is higher than that of the United States, Western Europe, Singapore and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Real estate has two attributes, one is marketization and the other is public welfare. Because for some low-and middle-income groups, young people who have just joined the work and floating population, they can't afford to buy commercial housing with housing provident fund, and some don't need to buy a house somewhere at all. Therefore, while vigorously promoting the marketization of housing, as an administrative function of the government, the construction of public welfare housing such as low-rent housing, public rental housing and shantytown renovation is essential, so we must adhere to the principle of walking on two legs. In recent years, the country has increased the construction of affordable housing, which is based on this reality. This year, the State Council has made a plan to start construction of10,000 sets of affordable housing, which is of great significance.

Third, will house prices only rise and not fall? A few years ago, the myth that housing prices can only go up but not down misled the market. Some people say that house prices in China will only rise before 2020. The reason is that China residents have great housing demand potential, and the reduction of available land for dry real estate construction is rigid. However, the basic law of market economy tells us that a commodity's price is much higher than its actual value, and a bubble will form, and the bubble will always burst. The bigger the blow, the heavier the loss. An article in the Financial Times pointed out: "In this financial crisis, what hit banks hard was a gamble that US house prices and real estate prices only went up but not down. Regulators, bankers and Congress deluded themselves that real estate prices would only get higher and higher. Everyone has the right to have a place to live, even if they are poor or have no credit-this is one of the versions of the' American Dream'. "

The real estate market must develop steadily and healthily, and it can't be ups and downs, and it can't be allowed to drift. There are many reasons for the American financial crisis, and the breakthrough is the subprime mortgage crisis. Japan's economy also broke out in the early 1990s. Until now, Japan's economy has been in a downturn, "lost for 20 years." China will never allow it to make the same mistakes as Japan and the United States on this issue, and we will never allow it to make such mistakes. This is the overall situation, which is the common interest of the people of the whole country. There are many stakeholders in the real estate market, but all of them should focus on the overall situation, and they should not only emphasize their own interests but ignore the overall situation. Otherwise, the achievements of reform and opening up will have an impact on the long-term stable and rapid economic development. Therefore, the state has repeatedly stressed that we should unremittingly do a good job in the regulation of the real estate market and the construction of affordable housing, persist in the determination, direction and intensity of regulation and control, resolutely curb the excessive rise of housing prices, ensure the implementation of the construction plan of affordable housing, ensure the construction quality and ensure fair distribution.

Four. Estimated growth rate: Will 20 13 encounter a "hard landing"?

From 53.4% to 50.9%-as an important leading indicator of China's macro-economy, the manufacturing index continued to fall from March to June this year; From 35.8% to17.9%-the export growth rate representing China's economic external demand has declined for four consecutive months; From 14.8% to 13.3%- the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size, a symbolic indicator of monthly economic trends, decreased month by month from March to May ... A series of statistics show that the economic growth rate of China has recently declined. At the same time, the high price proposal has not only led to the theory of "stagflation" in China's economy, but some even asserted that there would be a "hard landing".

On April 16, new york University professor Roubini published an article saying that he was bearish on China's economy. This scholar, who is famous for predicting the US housing market crash and the subsequent international financial crisis, visited China twice and concluded that China may encounter a hard landing after 20 13, and will end up in a financial crisis or a long-term low growth. 12 In June, "Dr. Doom" said the same thing at an international seminar held in Singapore. Professor Roubini is a rigorous scholar. In his two speeches in April and June this year, he used "before may" and "later" in judgmental sentences. When The Wall Street Journal reported Roubini's speech in April, some people pointed out that "possibility" is not equal to "certainty", nor is it equal to 20 13 after 20 13. Professor Roubini also made a clear suggestion: "If we want to avoid this fate, China needs to reduce the savings rate, reduce investment in fixed assets, reduce the proportion of net exports to GDP, and stimulate the proportion of consumption."

Recently, some people in the world have aroused a strong response to Professor Roubini's speech, and even tried to make use of the topic and over-hyped it, so as to criticize China's economy in all aspects. Some domestic media failed to report Roubini's speech comprehensively and accurately, and simply stated that "China's economy will encounter a hard landing in 20 13", which caused ideological confusion to some extent. In order to attract attention, it is extremely serious to take such an omitted report, which also goes against Professor Roubini's original intention.

How to correctly understand this problem? First of all, we should take Professor Roubini's speech as a useful suggestion, that is to say, we must adhere to the theme of scientific development, take the transformation of economic development mode as the main line, do not indulge in investment excessively, and focus on expanding domestic demand, reforming the income distribution system, increasing residents' consumption and ensuring the long-term sustainable development of China's economy. Second, we should proceed from the actual situation in China, and we should not simply apply western economic theories and laws to judge China's economy. Since the founding of New China, western economists have repeatedly predicted that China's economy is about to collapse. But history has proved that their predictions always fail. China's economic development has indeed experienced many difficulties and risks, but we can always tide over the difficulties, turn the corner, constantly open up new situations and make great strides. At present, China's economic development is in one of the best periods in history, with brand-new infrastructure, vigorous economic development and strong national financial strength. Under the strong and correct leadership of the Chinese Production Party, the people of the whole country are United as one, and no force can stop the people of China from advancing triumphantly.

(The author is deputy director of the Economic Committee of China People's Political Consultative Conference and former director of the National Bureau of Statistics)