After the pig price rose by 30%, the state still insisted on purchasing and storing to boost market confidence; At the end of April, after the data of the number of fertile sows in the country was released, the pig futures ended up rising for several days in a row, and the intraday diving fell; Pork imports hit a new low in April.
Please see the following analysis for details:
Hot spot of live pig market this week
0 1, the eighth batch of purchasing and storage started, and the country's determination to raise prices remained unchanged.
May 17, Huachu. Com announced that the auction of the sixth batch of frozen pork in central reserve will be held on May 20th, with 40,000 tons listed for auction.
Up to now, it is planned to collect and store 310.8 million tons during the year.
Comments: Up to now, it is planned to collect and store 3 1.8 million tons.
Although the final transaction result is not ideal, but in the case of rising pig prices, the country is still insisting on purchasing and storing, boosting market confidence, and the resistance of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs at low prices will increase.
However, in the case of weak consumption and abundant pig production capacity, the resistance to rising pig prices still exists.
In February and April, the stock data of fertile sows was released, and futures prices plummeted.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of April, there were 4 1.773 million sows, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month.
Affected by news such as slow production capacity, the futures market ushered in a diving decline after continuing to rise.
On May 17, live pig futures plunged sharply, and the final main contract fell by 4.64% to 18825 yuan/ton.
Comments: As can be seen from the data, with the increase of pig price, the decline rate of the number of fertile sows has slowed down.
In addition, the current stock of sows is still slightly higher than the normal stock.
According to the growth cycle, market pressure will still exist before February next year.
In some markets, it is expected that the rising spot price and the high mood of piglets will drive the replacement of spare sows, and it is expected that the stock of fertile sows will pick up in May.
Judging from the comprehensive supply and demand pattern, the market treasure predicts that the pig price will not rise to too high a level in the near future, and will return to the cost line at most.
In March and April, pork imports reached 6.5438+0.4 million tons, down 67% year-on-year.
According to the import data of the General Administration of Customs, in April 2022, China imported 6,543,800 tons of pork, down 67.6% year-on-year; From June 5438 to April, the cumulative import volume was 560,000 tons.
Comments: Domestic pig production capacity continues to be released, reducing pork import demand.
In addition, pork consumption in the market is weak.
In April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 2,948.3 billion yuan, down 1 654.38+0% year-on-year; In April, the catering revenue decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, and the room income of the above-designated accommodation industry decreased by more than 30%.
In the past 15 years, the proportion of imported frozen pork in domestic pork supply was basically maintained at 2%-5%.
It is estimated that the pork import this year may be within 2 million tons.
Source: Cited from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, General Administration of Customs and Huachu.com.