Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic situation of swine high fever, swine streptococcosis and the high pig price in 2003-04 have led to a sharp drop in pig prices in the second half of this year, a large number of new pig farmers closed down, pig production came to an abrupt end, and with the influence of avian influenza, pig prices began to slowly pick up again. According to preliminary survey statistics, the price of pigs in some places in Hunan has exceeded 3.8, and that in Jiangxi has exceeded 4.2. Therefore, the breeding benefits continue to be optimistic. What is the development trend of pig raising next year? On the basis of investigation and comprehensive analysis, it is hereby announced as follows.

First, the main characteristics of the pig industry this year

1, the price of live pigs rose in the first half of the year, even higher than the same period of last year, but it fell sharply in the second half of the year, which dealt a huge blow to those new pig farmers. A large number of piglets are sold at low prices, a large number of sows are treated at low prices, and a large number of fattening pigs are sold at low prices, forming a benign situation in which new pig farmers are empty and old pig farmers optimize the structure of pig farms. Affected by bird flu in China and the world, the demand for pork has increased, which has pushed up the price of pigs, with a large increase in some places.

2. The price of feed raw materials fluctuates, but the fluctuation is not big, and it tends to be stable in general, especially the price of corn. A series of policies and measures issued by the central government to support agriculture, especially grain production, have played a dual role in promoting grain production and the development of pig industry. Increasing grain production and increasing farmers' income provide feed and support for accelerating the development of pig industry. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of main feed raw materials such as corn, bran, rice bran and soybean meal have basically remained at 0.68 yuan/kg for corn, 0.52 yuan/kg for bran, 0.55 yuan/kg for rice bran and 0/.3 yuan/kg for soybean meal, respectively, down by/kloc-0.3%, 25%, 20% and 7% compared with last year. The cost of compound feed for pigs decreased about 10% year-on-year.

3. Breeding benefits continue to be optimistic. According to the survey, users who have used Hunan Guang 'an feed for a long time in the market have reported that even if the price of big pigs is 2.8, each pig can still earn 20 yuan (of course, the premise is that the feeding management level is very high and the pigs are not sick).

Second, next year's pig price market trend forecast

How about the price of pigs next year? Judging from the macro-situation and micro-market analysis of the pig industry at present, the development of the pig industry will tend to be stable next year.

First, a bumper harvest of grain, sufficient feed raw materials and relatively stable feed prices are conducive to the development of the pig industry.

Second, at present, free-range farmers are gradually withdrawing from the pig industry, which is an irreversible trend. It is difficult for specialized households to supplement the sharp decline in the number of free-range households. On the other hand, due to the worldwide impact of avian influenza, the market demand for pork has increased.

Third, it is predicted that pork prices will remain above the breakeven point next year. The benefit of live pigs tends to be reasonable and the scale trend is obvious. Judging from the number of pigs, due to the construction of small towns, the diversification of people's employment methods and the enhancement of environmental awareness, the number of pigs in developed areas will continue to decrease; Judging from the way of breeding, it is more and more obvious that pigs are gradually developing to large-scale breeding. From the perspective of breeding risk, the market risk is weakening day by day, and animal diseases are frequent, especially in Sichuan, the main pig producing area this year. The increased risk of epidemic diseases threatens the pig industry. To sum up, it is predicted that pig production will enter a stable development period next year, the price per load will rise to around 390 yuan, and the profit per pig in large-scale pig farms will be around 70 yuan. The profit of each pig can reach about 130 yuan if it is self-propagating and self-supporting. It is suggested that pig production should adjust the pig herd structure in time according to market changes, speed up the improvement of pig breeds, and produce ternary hybrid commercial pigs with large market demand; Promote the transformation of feeding methods and develop moderate scale management; To improve the scientific and technological content of raising pigs, it is necessary to benefit from science and technology and management. (Personal views are for reference only)