In fact, the cause of the recent pork prices continue to go down is still related to the pig cycle. The pig cycle is a common economic phenomenon of pork cycle. Its conduction path is as follows: meat prices rose sow inventory increased hog supply increased meat prices fell a large number of elimination of sows hog supply decreased meat prices rose.

Since it usually takes a few months from piglets to fat pigs to be farrowed, this leads to the law of the pig cycle, farming enterprises or farmers can not be scaled down according to the changes in pork prices. In fact, the cause of the current decline in pork prices is here.Around 2020, pork prices rose rapidly due to the impact of African swine fever. At that time, the price of pork almost rose to more than 20 yuan per catty.

The continued rise in pork prices led to hog raising companies as well as farmers expanding their production capacity. But due to the rise in pork prices, it has affected the lives of the people. At this time, the state released a large amount of reserve pork to the market, which is why we later felt that pork prices have been falling.

But due to the rapid expansion of hog enterprises as well as farmers' production capacity at that time, and the piglets at that time have come to the time of slaughter, a large amount of pork on the market. But the problem was that the market demand for pork could not be raised much again in the short term. Under the influence of supply and demand, the price of pork fell back rapidly. Although around October last year, the state launched a pork storage work, hoping to help pig enterprises as well as farmers to tide over the difficult times.

But the capacity of hogs on the market is still very high, which also led to pork prices continue to fall. From the current market situation, we predict that the inflection point of pork prices may appear around the middle to late May this year, when pork prices may usher in a wave of rise. But for today's pig enterprises as well as pig farmers, can be said to be double pressure.

On the one hand, the uncertainty of the epidemic, many areas of the epidemic sealing and control policy continues to escalate, some pig farmers, whether it is the sale or transportation of feed all have been affected. On the other hand, feed prices continue to rise, which makes many people do not see hope. For today's pig farmers, it becomes a situation where whoever raises more pigs loses more money. So what about the recent vegetable prices that have been rising?

Second, the causes of rising vegetable prices

In fact, vegetable prices continue to rise or and the circulation of agricultural products have a direct relationship. Among them, the procurement link is mainly for agricultural products circulation enterprises. From the point of view of agricultural products circulation enterprises, the logistics costs incurred in procurement is the starting point of the circulation process occurs. Bulk procurement of agricultural products as a chain of enterprises operating fresh business is an important part of the cost directly affects the profitability of the enterprise.

At present, the process of purchasing agricultural products in supermarkets, the general process is "farmers - wholesalers - suppliers - supermarket logistics procurement", usually at least four links, in the process of which, the cost of logistics costs incurred is the starting point of the circulation process. In this process, the cost rises a lot, resulting in farmers and consumers suffer different degrees of loss. This traditional procurement model has the risk of market information failure, large inventory, capital occupation, may often be in short supply, affecting the normal production and operation activities of enterprises, affecting the economic efficiency of enterprises.

Due to the spread of the epidemic in the core production areas of major vegetables, this has led to the vegetables in these areas can not be put on the market normally. The original market supply of vegetables itself is limited, the new supply can not be increased, naturally pulling the price of vegetables rose. The transportation of agricultural products is with the help of various means of transportation to achieve the transfer of agricultural products in space. Due to the large number of agricultural products, agricultural transportation costs in the circulation of a relatively large proportion of the link.

Because of the special characteristics of agricultural products, such as short freshness, high water content, very easy to rot and deteriorate, etc., the transportation efficiency has an important impact. According to the Ministry of Commerce Circulation Industry Promotion Center data show that in China, fruits and vegetables and other agricultural and sideline products in the picking, transportation, storage and other aspects of the loss rate of about 25%-30%, the average loss of food is also 14.8%, while the developed countries, the loss rate is controlled at less than 5%, the United States is only 1%-2%.

It is because of the high rate of transportation losses, and this part of the loss is finally borne by the consumer, thus greatly increasing the price of agricultural products. In addition, oil prices continue to rise, but also let the distribution costs of agricultural products continue to increase. And from the current point of view, the degree of the epidemic is different, from the province to the prefecture to the district issued by the epidemic prevention policy is completely different, which leads to the circulation of agricultural products is seriously hampered.

Many areas of the country's large truck drivers are often trapped on the road, either directly persuaded to return, there are other areas are on the large truck drivers a variety of restrictions, which makes the entire vegetable circulation link is very poor. In the above these factors *** with the superposition, directly pulling up the rise in vegetable prices. Third, pork price polarization

The pork price polarization, in fact, more refers to the price of pork is abnormally high, while the price of ordinary pork is a long time low. In fact, the reason for this situation is still directly related to the change of people's dietary structure. More and more city dwellers feel that the taste as well as the nutritional price of earth pork is better than that of ordinary pork, and the market demand for this meat is high.

But from the point of view of the breeding of native pigs, it is still not possible to achieve centralized, large-scale breeding. Earthen pigs cannot be required to be raised in captivity, but to be mainly free-range. From this point of view, it is still predominantly rural farming. And some farmers are directly contracted to farm the hills in a certain area. But even so, considering the breeding management as well as manpower, the number of breeding of local pigs is still very low.

Obviously, under the influence of supply and demand, the price of local pork will certainly continue to rise. Considering the impact of the epidemic on people's incomes, the demand for local pork in the market may be lower, and subsequent prices may decrease. However, due to the relatively high breeding cost of local pork, it is estimated that the price will not drop much.

Three, summarize

From the above analysis, due to the existence of the pig cycle, resulting in the current market pork prices continue to decline, and in the short term its price is difficult to rebound. And the price of vegetables continues to be high, or and the cost of vegetable circulation is not smooth caused by. Especially with the rise in oil prices, but also to a certain extent pulled up the price of vegetables.