The price of live pigs in 2023 will definitely be better than that in 2022, because the pig-grain ratio will be around 6:1this year and around 7:1next year. In 2002 1 year, the price of live pigs declined from1month to May, and it only increased obviously in June, and began to decline after the price reached its peak from August to September. From 2002 to 2022, the pig market experienced five pig cycles, each lasting about 4 years.
For farmers, two things can be done well. The first is to seize this advantage, optimize the population structure, and make plans and layouts. According to the growth cycle of pigs, the period from reserve sows to commercial pigs is between13 and14 months. That is to say, in September 9- 10/October, 2022, the binary reserve sow will be reared, corresponding to the slaughter of pigs around 1 1 month in 2023, just entering the traditional consumption peak season of preserved meat and enema in the fourth quarter, and the demand side will benefit from the pig price, which is expected to continue to grasp this pig cycle.
The impact of rising pork prices
1, the demand for pork in China is very large. According to official data, the shortage of pork in China this year is as high as 9.23 million tons, and the shortage of pigs will climb to12.37 million tons. Taken together this year and next, the shortage of pork in just over 400 days is as high as more than 20 million tons, and the total trade output of pork in the world is about 7 million tons. Among them, the import volume of China is as high as more than 3 million tons, so the demand gap is widened due to the influence of African swine fever, and the price of pork goes up obviously.
2. The price increase of pork will affect some people to eat less or not to eat pork, and invisibly transfer to consume other meats, which will cause the future prices of chicken, beef and various meats to rise simultaneously. In the second half of the year, many people will say that they can't afford meat, which should be normal.