The 2020 COVID-19 epidemic has caused heavy losses to the global tourism industry. In particular, almost all domestic tourist attractions and entertainment projects have been closed, transportation has been suspended, and the tourism industry has stopped 100%, which has had a huge impact on the tourism industry.

, so how long will it take for the tourism industry to fully recover after the epidemic? Recently, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) released a global tourism crisis research report, saying that the recovery period for the tourism industry affected by the epidemic is an average of 19.4 months.

Last year, the World Travel and Tourism Council collaborated with the US-based Global Rescue Company (GlobalRescue) to analyze the impact of 90 international crises on countries and cities from 2001 to 2018, and elaborated on the risks faced by the global tourism industry.

Suggestions for responding to the crisis were put forward, and extensive opinions from the government, non-public sector, destination institutions, international organizations and associations, and scholars were gathered. It took 8 months to complete the research report "Crisis Preparedness, Management and Recovery".

The report said that with the rise of global connectivity, travel convenience and affluent people, international tourism has shown significant growth.

From 1950 to 2018, international arrivals increased by 5,500%.

At the same time, tourism brings huge economic and social benefits to destinations, creates millions of jobs, protects natural and cultural wealth, promotes prosperity, reduces poverty, and improves education.

However, from geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions to terrorism to evolving health threats and escalating environmental threats, the world's risk landscape is changing, and new risks continue to reshape the global ecosystem.

The report divides common crises in the tourism industry into four categories: terrorism, social unrest, natural disasters, and epidemic outbreaks.

It was mentioned that among the 90 crises, 12 were epidemic outbreaks.

The report stated that epidemic outbreaks have become the new normal, and the impact of epidemics similar to H1N1 on the global economy is estimated to be between US$45 billion and US$55 billion.

The average recovery period of the epidemic is 19.4 months, ranging from 10 months to 34.9 months.

Terrorism is also a concern for many international travelers.

But in fact, the chance of becoming a victim of terrorism is lower, so the travel industry rebounds faster, with the recovery time for tourism in areas affected by terrorist attacks being the shortest, averaging 11.5 months, ranging from 2 months to 42 months.

Political instability or social unrest is far more damaging to a country's tourism industry than terrorist attacks. The average recovery time for political instability and civil unrest is the longest, at 22.2 months, with recovery periods ranging from 10 months to 44.9 months.

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In recent years, the frequency and severity of natural disasters have increased dramatically. The number of natural disasters has quadrupled between 1970 and 2016, and the recovery time span is the largest, ranging from 1 month to 93 months, with an average of 16.2 months.

The report suggests that identifying and understanding various risks is only the first step. The tourism industry must establish a diversified, dynamic and decentralized risk prevention layout and implement an overall mechanism for classified policies and operations.

It will take at least a year for the tourism industry to recover. Nanfang Daily: How long do you expect the impact to last? Bao Jigang: The number of people infected with COVID-19 has far exceeded SARS.

During SARS, 29 countries around the world reported 8,422 clinically diagnosed cases and 916 deaths; as of 0:00 on March 3, there were 80,151 confirmed cases and 2,943 deaths nationwide, and 12,010 confirmed cases and 184 deaths overseas.

It is currently 10.9 times higher than during the SARS period.

At present, it seems that epidemic prevention and control has achieved initial results, and the number of new confirmed cases nationwide has steadily declined. Since February 16, the number of new confirmed cases in Guangdong has been less than 10, and on March 2, there have been 0 new confirmed cases.

Each province and city has also seen 0 new confirmed cases, but for Hubei, the overall number of confirmed cases is still very large.

From the perspective of government regulation, there is still uncertainty when the tourism industry will fully reopen.

On the other hand, although some local tourist attractions have opened, there are not many real tourists, and the recovery of tourist confidence will lag behind.

At the same time, compared with other industries, the tourism industry is not the most necessary industry for life, so the opening time of the tourism industry will be delayed.

Without considering other factors, if the epidemic ends in the first half of the year, we can roughly make the following judgment: Judging from the cycle of my country's economic development and the natural development rules of the tourism market, domestic tourism will resume growth in the second half of 2020. By the second half of 2021, it will recover or even exceed the scale level of the same period in 2019. The recovery time of the tourism industry will generally take about a year.