1, from the auction point of view analysis, so far, this week there is no new corn auction announcement, so it seems that the temporary storage corn auction has ended. Up to now, the critical reserve corn transactions 56.84 million tons, plus a one-time reserve corn 8.02 million tons, the cumulative auction of 64.86 million tons of corn, to the stockpile task is basically over, for the end of the year before the pressure from the auction of corn is greatly reduced.
2, from the futures point of view, last Friday, Dalian corn main 2101 contract rose as high as 2,443 yuan / ton, hit a new high of 8 years since 2012, from the spot price point of view, in the past two days, many corn prices rebounded 10-30 yuan / ton range. It can be said that the rise in futures, for the market corn market to make the market guide.
3, from the corn yield factors, although by the impact of increased corn subsidies, corn area has risen, but since late August, the three northeastern provinces and one area has suffered three consecutive typhoons, the corn appeared to fall, accounting for more than 40% of the country's total corn corn production in the northeast region corn production decline, is bound to have an impact on the overall corn production.
4, from the consumption point of view, since the fourth quarter of 2019, hog production capacity continues to grow, is expected to the first half of 2021, will be a rapid period of growth in hog production capacity, the demand for feed corn will continue to rise. From the current soybean meal market and feed market, there has been a rising momentum.
Expanded:
1, corn prices short-term is in a new grain listing before the fall of the old grain, the auction is about to end of a gap, or a brief price rebound But the space is limited, I think the possibility of breaking through the previous high of 1.25 yuan / kg is unlikely. Corn into November or will rise, the price is likely to be above 1.20 yuan / kg, into December, until the end of March, corn prices have the risk of falling back.
2, a comprehensive analysis of the corn market, in October, a large number of new corn grain market is expected, as well as auction-sold corn out of storage one after another, the short-term rise in corn prices is limited, and it is difficult to break through the former high of 1.25 yuan / kg, but after the December-2021 March this downturn, corn prices or will usher in a new round of rising trend market, it is expected that the first half of next year, corn prices are expected to break through 1.30 yuan, impact 1.40 yuan.